Facebook usage among 12 to 17-year-olds will decline for the first time this year, eMarketer estimates. Meanwhile, eMarketer's latest forecast for the first time has Snapchat beating both Instagram and Facebook in terms of total users aged 12 to 17 and 18 to 24.

Why it matters: This marks the first time eMarketer has ever predicted a decline in Facebook usage for any age group and usage among people 24 and younger will grow more slowly than previously forecast.

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Data: eMarketer; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

  • "We see teens and tweens migrating to Snapchat and Instagram," says eMarketer forecasting analyst Oscar Orozco. "Both platforms have found success with this demographic since they are more aligned with how they communicate – using visual content."
  • "Outside of the Facebook-cutters, teens and tweens remaining on Facebook seem to be less engaged – logging in less frequently and spending less time on the platform. At the same time, we now have Facebook-nevers, many children aging into the tween demographic that appear to be overlooking Facebook altogether, yet still engaging with Facebook-owned Instagram."

Writing on the wall: Forbes headline from February: Facebook Users Posted A Third Less Content In 2016 Than In 2015.

Publishers take notice: BuzzFeed today Tuesday it will launch an all-new Snapchat Discover Publisher Stories for its Tasty and Nifty brands in early September. Both brands started as Facebook pages.

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