Oct 5, 2018

Exclusive poll: America riveted by Kavanaugh fight

More than half of Americans say they've been having conversations about the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation battle at work, and almost three quarters of Americans have been talking about it with their friends and families, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll.

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Data: SurveyMonkey online poll conducted Oct. 3–4 among 1,714 U.S. adults. Total margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points. Survey methodology; Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Between the lines: The survey, conducted this week, shows just how much the Supreme Court fight has been dominating conversations throughout the country. But more than three quarters of Americans say their discussions with each other have been civil — despite the rising passions on both sides as the battle has focused on allegations of sexual assault.

The poll also shows that both sides have become more dug in, with rising intensity among Kavanaugh's supporters and opponents. And there's a large gender gap, driven by opposition to Kavanaugh among Democratic women.

By the numbers:

  • 50% disapprove of Kavanaugh's nomination, while 45% approve. That's about the same as the margins in early September.
  • Strong disapproval rose from 26% in September to 35% this week, while strong approval rose from 23% to 30%.
  • The gender gap is substantial: just 36% of women approve of Kavanaugh, compared to 55% of men.
  • There's not a big gap among Republicans: 89% of Republican men and 86% of Republican women approve of the Kavanaugh nomination.
  • But there is a gap among Democrats: 92% of Democratic women disapprove of Kavanaugh, compared to 82% of Democratic men.
  • Independent women are largely against Kavanaugh, too: 54% oppose him, while 29% support him.

Methodology: This analysis is based on SurveyMonkey online surveys conducted Oct. 3-4 among 1,714 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate  for the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. More information about our methodology here. Crosstabs available here.

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