Jan 29, 2019

2. Exclusive poll: Americans want economic system reform in 2020

Data: SurveyMonkey online poll; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

Most Americans think the economic system is skewed toward the wealthy and the government should do more to fix it — and they're ready to vote for a candidate who agrees, according to a new Axios/SurveyMonkey survey

Why it matters: The economy is usually the top priority for voters heading into a presidential election, and Democrats in particular — but also a strong majority of independents — are looking for big changes. By wide margins, they think unfairness in the economic system is a bigger problem than overregulation of the free market.

The big picture: Democrats and young adults are increasingly favorable to socialism.

  • As Axios' Felix Salmon noted, 18-24 year-olds in the survey view socialism (61% positive) more favorably than capitalism (58%), the only age group to do so. Older respondents tend to be far more wary of socialism.
  • Democrats are far more favorable toward socialism than independents and Republicans, as other surveys have found. 64% of Democrats in this survey say they have positive views of socialism, while 83% of Republicans and 61% of independents have negative views.
  • Men are much more bullish about capitalism (71% positive) than women (51%). Women, meanwhile, are slightly more favorable toward socialism (41% positive, vs. 36% for men).

Between the lines: Republicans are far less likely to see unfairness in the economic system. While 62% overall, and 85% of Democrats, say the government should pursue policies aimed at reducing inequality, just 34% of Republicans agree.

  • So when President Trump cuts taxes and regulations, but doesn't pursue policies to reduce inequality, he'll be on solid ground with the GOP base — but that agenda won't broaden his appeal with independents.

By the numbers:

  • 89% of Democrats say economic unfairness that favors the wealthy is a bigger problem than overregulation.
  • 68% of independents agree.
  • But 77% of Republicans say overregulation of the free market is a bigger problem than economic unfairness.

Go deeper ... Special Report: A new — unknown — world

Methodology: This SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted Jan. 16-18 among 2,277 adults age 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and full crosstabs are available here.

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2024 lookahead poll: GOP voters eye Trump dynasty

Data: Online SurveyMonkey poll (Margin of error: ±2.5 percentage points). Chart: Axios Visuals

Ready to skip 2020 and go straight to 2024? In a SurveyMonkey poll for Axios, Republican voters chose children of President Trump — Don Jr. and Ivanka — as two of the top four picks for president in four years.

  • Why it matters: An early poll like this is largely a measure of name ID. But it's also a vivid illustration of just how strong Trump's brand is with the GOP.
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Why 50+ women care about 2020

Data: AARP/Harris Poll; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new AARP survey by the Harris Poll examined what's driving women 50 and older ahead of next year's elections and found health care on top. The survey also found that older women’s concerns about Trump are eroding, but not upending, his support with Republicans and independents.

Why it matters: As the House of Representatives prepares to impeach the president, the priorities for this group of high-propensity voters are closer to home and different from what their male counterparts care most about.

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Exclusive poll: Black Americans motivated by Trump to vote in 2020

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A majority of black Americans are more interested in voting in the 2020 presidential election than they were in 2016, according to a national survey of 1200 black voters and non-voters conducted by Third Way and the Joint Center.

Why it matters: Black voter turnout declined significantly in 2016 nationally and in key swing states, ultimately contributing to Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump. New details from focus groups and polling suggests that the motivation to remove Trump from office is firing up black Americans to head to the polls next November.

Go deeperArrowDec 30, 2019