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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

It's not a Lehman moment but it's still a very big deal. Chinese construction giant Evergrande looks set to default on its $300 billion of liabilities, in a move that has already had global market repercussions.

Why it matters: Evergrande is the first big test of the global financial system — and especially the Chinese financial system — since the pandemic-induced chaos of March 2020, when central banks around the world were forced to take unprecedented measures to prevent total collapse. So far, world markets seem to be coping just fine.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Context: By any measure, an Evergrande debt default would be one of the largest in history of the world.

  • To put its $305 billion debt load in perspective, Argentina's massive foreign-debt default in 2001 was about $93 billion; Greece's restructuring in 2012 was about $200 billion; and Lehman Brothers had about $600 billion in debts when it filed for bankruptcy.
  • While those defaults shook entire economies, Evergrande seems to be causing little more than some medium-sized market jitters — not even enough to derail the huge number of IPOs (14) due this week.

Between the lines: Evergrande debt has always carried a low junk rating, and the company was being described as "the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen" as long ago as 2017. As a result, investors in Evergrande, much like investors in bitcoin or GameStop, were acutely aware that they were taking a big risk.

  • Financial crises generally happen when (seemingly) safe assets unexpectedly default, not when risky assets do something that was largely foreseen.

The big picture: The Chinese government has been worried about the amount of debt in the domestic property sector for years, and has aggressively been trying to force the large players, including Evergrande, to deleverage.

  • Evergrande's failure — along with that of other highly-indebted companies — can be seen as a price that the Chinese government is willing to pay in order to make the country's broader financial system less risky.

What's next: As economist Adam Tooze asks: "The crucial question is, can Beijing manage this controlled demolition?"

  • China's markets won't open until Wednesday, so we'll know more about their signals then. (They're closed Monday and Tuesday for the Mid Autumn Festival.)
  • A full-scale crisis is still possible. But consensus among China watchers — coupled with the magnitude of the market reaction thus far — implies that Beijing is aware of the risks and has financial firefighters waiting in the wings in case of emergency.

The bottom line: It's normal and healthy for markets to fall when giant companies fail.

Go deeper

Updated Dec 8, 2021 - Politics & Policy

House approves one-time, fast track process to raise debt limit

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The House of Representatives on Tuesday passed a bill, 222-212, that would allow Senate Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own in an expedited process.

Why it matters: The move helps Congress avoid a messy and arduous process and clears the way for the Senate — which will still need to pass the bill — to raise the debt ceiling before Dec. 15, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. will default on its debts.

Updated 30 mins ago - World

UK government: Kremlin has plan "to install pro-Russian leadership" in Ukraine

British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss. Photo: Gints Ivuskans / AFP via Getty Images

The United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary on Saturday night said the government has "information that indicates the Russian Government is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine."

Driving the news: U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne called the intelligence "deeply concerning" in a statement to Axios. The Biden administration has said Russia is actively manufacturing a pretext for invasion and warned that Putin could use joint military exercises in Belarus as cover to invade from the north.

Updated 2 hours ago - Science

This powerful new accelerator looks for keys to the center of atoms

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Nuclear physicists trying to piece together how atoms are built are about to get a powerful new tool.

Why it matters: When the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams begins experiments later this spring, physicists from around the world will use the particle accelerator to better understand the inner workings of atoms that make up all the matter that can be seen in the universe.

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