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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Advocates of a single-payer system may have a hard time persuading workers that their wages would go up if their employer-based health care went away.

Why it matters: “Medicare for All” would bring an enormous amount of change to the health system, and the disruption of employer-based insurance is already an important political flashpoint.

"For a socialist, you've got a lot more confidence in corporate America than I do,” former Vice President Joe Biden said to Sen. Bernie Sanders at last week’s Democratic debate, in response to Sanders’ assurances that employers would raise wages if they were no longer paying for health benefits.

By the numbers: Sanders’ view is an article of faith among most economists, but a majority of Americans aren’t so sure.

  • In a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll, 63% of people surveyed said they thought their wages would stay the same if their employers’ health costs went down; another 5% weren’t sure.
  • Just 32% said they thought their wages would go up.

Between the lines: It is likely true that employers would reap big savings if the government took insurance off their hands, and that many would plough savings back into wages, as economists believe.

  • It’s just that workers don’t necessarily believe those savings will end up in their paychecks, creating an additional challenge for selling Medicare for All.
  • Wage growth has been sluggish lately, making workers generally dubious that wages would increase.
  • Or it could simply be because they don’t trust their employers for any number of reasons.
  • Savings might also be offset if Medicare for All is financed by a substantial payroll tax.

My thought bubble: Economic orthodoxy aside, it’s not a crazy concern. As an employer, I know there are many competing priorities, including wage increases, vying for the windfall if our health costs went away.

The bottom line: One big knock on “Medicare for All” is voters’ distrust of government. But distrust of employers could matter, too.

  • It’s possible that lower-wage workers, who generally have lousier coverage, will be more willing than their higher-income counterparts to trade it in for something new.

Go deeper

Texas abortion law remains in effect after appeals court ruling

Pro- and anti-abortion protesters outside the Supreme Court as arguments begin about the Texas abortion law on Capitol Hill in November. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

A U.S. appeals court transferred a challenge to Texas' law banning most abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy to the state supreme court in a 2-1 vote on Monday evening.

Why it matters: The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision means the country's most restrictive abortion law can remain in place for the time being.

2 hours ago - World

At least 2 dead after Tonga volcano eruption and tsunami

A satellite image of the explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on Saturday. Photo: UNICEF/NOAA

At least two people are confirmed to have died in Tonga following the undersea volcanic eruption that sent tsunami waves toward the island nation and across the Pacific over the weekend, officials said Monday.

The big picture: Officials reported major damage along the western coast of the main island of Tongatapu, where the capital, Nuku'alofa, was covered in ash and dust, including on the runway of the airport. A New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson told Axios over the phone that two people had been confirmed to have died in the disaster.

Airlines call for Biden admin's "immediate intervention" in 5G deployment

Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The CEOs of leading U.S. air cargo and passenger carriers on Monday warned the Biden administration there could be "catastrophic disruption" after AT&T and Verizon deploy a new 5G service this week.

Driving the news: They said in a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other top federal officials ahead of the C-Band 5G service's deployment Wednesday that "the nation's commerce will grind to a halt" and "could potentially strand tens of thousands of Americans overseas."

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