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Expand chart
Data: IHS Markit; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

Cars over the next decade are going to flip from being mostly gasoline-powered to mostly electrified, according to a new IHS Markit forecast.

Why it matters: The changeover, if it plays out as expected, represents a breathtaking and potentially risky transition for the global auto industry.

  • While automakers have committed more than $300 billion to electrify their fleets — and governments are adding new restrictions on gasoline vehicles —consumer acceptance remains the wild card.

Driving the news: The Environmental Protection Agency last week proposed more aggressive vehicle emissions targets through 2026, while the White House said it wanted half of all new cars and trucks sold to be electric by 2030.

  • With new electric models and the help of emissions credits for some companies, the industry is on track to meet the EPA's revised targets through 2026, IHS researchers said. "Beyond that, there remains work to do."

Where it stands: Electric vehicles accounted for 2.2% of U.S. light-vehicle registrations through May, according to IHS Markit data.

  • Hybrid gas-electric vehicles were 5.8% and plug-in hybrids were just under 1%.

What to watch: IHS Markit forecasts electric vehicles to grow from 3% of sales in 2021 to 32.3% by 2030, while gasoline-powered vehicles shrink from 87% of sales to just 36.5%.

Go deeper

GM plans to double revenues by 2030 as it rolls out EVs and services

GM CEO Mary Barra. Photo: GM

General Motors plans to double its revenues over the next decade as it transitions to an all-electric future, tapping into software and subscription services that enable new vehicle experiences and connect customers' digital lives, the company told reporters on Wednesday.

Why it matters: It's an extraordinary target for a lumbering industrial giant that is trying to transform itself from automaker to "platform innovator."

Columbus bus system gets electric

Two electric buses outside of Columbus City Hall. The COTA bus on the right will begin carrying passengers next week. Photo: Tyler Buchanan/Axios

The first two electric buses in the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) fleet will hit the streets this coming Monday.

Why it matters: The electric bus rollout is part of a long-term goal of COTA and the city of Columbus to cut back on carbon emissions by transitioning to greener energy sources.

  • The new electric buses can hold up to a six-hour charge and cost just shy of $1 million apiece.
  • COTA estimates each bus will save as much as $500,000 in maintenance and fuel costs over a 12-year lifespan.
Updated 3 hours ago - World

Reports: Up to 17 U.S. missionaries kidnapped in Haiti

Haitian soldiers guard the public prosecutor's office in Port-au-Prince earlier this month. Photo: Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images

Children were among up to 17 American Christian missionaries and their relatives kidnapped by a gang in Haiti on Saturday, the New York Times first reported.

Details: The missionaries had just left an orphanage and were traveling by bus to the airport to "drop off some members" and were due to travel to another destination when the gang struck in Port-au-Prince, Haitian security officials said, per the NYT.