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Reproduced from S&P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals

Tomorrow's GDP report is poised to be one for the record books, but economists warn that the numbers are likely to be deceiving.

What we're hearing: The GDP is likely to catch a lot of attention tomorrow as we expect a historic 29.5% growth annualized," says Beth Ann Bovino, S&P Global's chief U.S. economist. 

  • "But, while growth is welcomed, we are nowhere near home yet. We need to regain almost 40% of the $1.85 trillion lost to get back to pre-crisis GDP levels seen in 4Q 2019.”

Be smart: Brookings Institution nonresident senior fellow Jay Shambaugh warns that because GDP is typically reported at an annualized pace, the numbers "can be a bit misleading." And further, "rapid third quarter growth does not mean the economy has strong momentum now."

  • "Third quarter growth measures the average level of output in July through September compared to the average in April through June."
  • "The very low level of output in April and May set a low baseline, meaning almost any bounce back at all would generate a huge growth rate for the third quarter."

Go deeper

America's population growth is slowing down

Data: William H Frey analysis of US decennial censuses 2010-2010, 2020 Census Demographic Analysis released December 15, 2020; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Even in an unlikely "high growth rate" scenario, America's population has grown at the slowest rate since at least the 1930s, according to recent Census Bureau projections for the last decade.

Why it matters: America is aging. There is a growing number of people out of the workforce, and a relatively smaller number of people trying to support them — a situation that could cripple programs like Social Security and slow economic growth.

Toyota to build $1.3 billion U.S. battery plant in North Carolina

The all-electric Toyota bZ4X, the company's first battery-electric vehicle, at the Los Angeles Auto Show in Los Angeles, California on Nov. 17. Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Toyota announced Monday it's investing $1.3 billion to construct an electric vehicle battery "megasite" near Greensboro, North Carolina, set to open in 2025.

Why it matters: Toyota's Prius hybrid won environmental plaudits when it launched in 1997, but it has since lost ground to electric vehicle world leader Tesla, per Axios' Joann Muller. This battery plant will be the first to produce automotive batteries for Toyota in North America.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Congress hunts for shortcut to pass defense funding, debt limit combo

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer returned to his office Monday. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The scramble in Congress to pass the National Defense Authorization Act is being complicated by an effort to tie it to a needed hike in the federal debt limit.

Why it matters: The House and Senate are rapidly coming up against a series of deadlines they must address before the end of the year — or risk disrupting crucial military funding and upending the economy. Congressional leaders are now hoping they can knock out both "must-pass" priorities in one, complex swoop.