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Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

The latest forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released today shows its members largely agree with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and the U.S. Fed that inflation will moderate even as growth picks up through the rest of the year.

The headline numbers: NABE raised its forecast for U.S. GDP this year to increase by 6.5% in 2021 including 8.5% growth in the second quarter.

  • In the survey, 56% of respondents say the risks for economic growth are to the upside, meaning that the economy outpaces expectations, while just 15% say risks are to the downside.
  • In the group's last survey in March, panelists had expected GDP to rise by 5.2%.

On jobs: NABE's survey respondents also expect employment gains in 2021 and 2022 to be greater than anticipated in the previous survey.

  • 56% of survey respondents anticipate nonfarm payrolls will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022 and 10% expect the rebound will happen by Q4 2021.
  • In the March survey, 59% anticipated that to occur in 2023 or later.

On inflation: "Respondents expect inflation to accelerate strongly in 2021 before cooling in 2022," the survey found.

  • NABE economists expect the Consumer Price Index, to be 2.8%, year over year (y/y) in Q4 2021, and 2.3% y/y in Q4 2022, compared to 1.2% in 2020.
  • Panelists also anticipate that the Fed's favored measure for inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will rise to 2.2% y/y in Q4 2021, and 2.1% y/y in Q4 2022.
  • In March, the survey showed expectations for 1.9% inflation at the end of 2021.

Go deeper

May 23, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Scoop: House members urged to jump on inflation fears

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

House Republicans will be urged to lean into voters' fear of inflation and link it to enacting the White House's economic agenda, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: A memo being sent by Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who leads the Republican Study Committee, comes as some economists are increasingly concerned President Biden is doing too much, too fast, and his spending will crank up inflation.

SurveyMonkey poll: GOP divisions on Jan. 6 commission

Expand chart
Data: SurveyMonkey; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Two in three Americans — including the majority of moderate and liberal Republicans — favor creating a bipartisan commission to investigate the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, according to a new SurveyMonkey poll for Axios.

Why it matters: Conservative Republicans hold enough influence to block criticism and investigations of Donald Trump in Congress, but that stance could put them at odds with many suburban and college-educated Republican voters ahead of next year's midterms.

3,000 unruly passenger reports made to FAA this year

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Airlines have reported some 3,000 cases of unruly behavior by passengers to the Federal Aviation Administration this year — including 2,300 for refusing to comply with face mask mandates, the FAA announced Monday.

Why it matters: Passenger numbers remain below pre-pandemic levels. But the FAA is investigating the highest number of suspected federal law violations since it began recording unruly passenger incidents in 1995, per ABC News.