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Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

The latest forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released today shows its members largely agree with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and the U.S. Fed that inflation will moderate even as growth picks up through the rest of the year.

The headline numbers: NABE raised its forecast for U.S. GDP this year to increase by 6.5% in 2021 including 8.5% growth in the second quarter.

  • In the survey, 56% of respondents say the risks for economic growth are to the upside, meaning that the economy outpaces expectations, while just 15% say risks are to the downside.
  • In the group's last survey in March, panelists had expected GDP to rise by 5.2%.

On jobs: NABE's survey respondents also expect employment gains in 2021 and 2022 to be greater than anticipated in the previous survey.

  • 56% of survey respondents anticipate nonfarm payrolls will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022 and 10% expect the rebound will happen by Q4 2021.
  • In the March survey, 59% anticipated that to occur in 2023 or later.

On inflation: "Respondents expect inflation to accelerate strongly in 2021 before cooling in 2022," the survey found.

  • NABE economists expect the Consumer Price Index, to be 2.8%, year over year (y/y) in Q4 2021, and 2.3% y/y in Q4 2022, compared to 1.2% in 2020.
  • Panelists also anticipate that the Fed's favored measure for inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will rise to 2.2% y/y in Q4 2021, and 2.1% y/y in Q4 2022.
  • In March, the survey showed expectations for 1.9% inflation at the end of 2021.

Go deeper

Axios-Ipsos poll: Vaccine hesitancy may be crumbling

Expand chart
Data: Axios/Ipsos Poll; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. is showing signs of crumbling, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

  • Fewer adults than ever now say they won't take the shot, and in the past two weeks there has been a sharp increase in the share of parents who plan to get their younger kids vaccinated as soon as it's allowed.
2 hours ago - World

Report: LGBTQ+ Afghans' lives "dramatically worsened" under Taliban rule

Taliban fighters in Kabul, Afghanistan, earlier this month. Photo: Mohd Rasfan/AFP via Getty Images

LGBTQ+ Afghans have been threatened, attacked and "faced an increasingly desperate situation and grave threats to their safety" since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan last August, per a report published Wednesday.

What they're saying: "We spoke with LGBT Afghans who have survived gang rape, mob attacks, or have been hunted by their own family members who joined the Taliban, and they have no hope that state institutions will protect them," per a statement from study co-author J. Lester Feder.

4 hours ago - World

Canadian Indigenous group finds 93 suspected unmarked graves

A makeshift memorial honoring the 215 children whose remains were found in a mass grave in Brantford, Ontario, Canada, last May. Photo: Cole Burston/AFP via Getty Images

Indigenous leaders in Canada's western province of British Columbia said Tuesday they believe they've found 93 unmarked graves near a former boarding school.

The big picture: Hundreds of mass graves have been found at the grounds of former residential schools for Indigenous children since last May, when the remains of 215 children were uncovered at one such site in B.C.