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Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

The latest forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released today shows its members largely agree with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and the U.S. Fed that inflation will moderate even as growth picks up through the rest of the year.

The headline numbers: NABE raised its forecast for U.S. GDP this year to increase by 6.5% in 2021 including 8.5% growth in the second quarter.

  • In the survey, 56% of respondents say the risks for economic growth are to the upside, meaning that the economy outpaces expectations, while just 15% say risks are to the downside.
  • In the group's last survey in March, panelists had expected GDP to rise by 5.2%.

On jobs: NABE's survey respondents also expect employment gains in 2021 and 2022 to be greater than anticipated in the previous survey.

  • 56% of survey respondents anticipate nonfarm payrolls will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022 and 10% expect the rebound will happen by Q4 2021.
  • In the March survey, 59% anticipated that to occur in 2023 or later.

On inflation: "Respondents expect inflation to accelerate strongly in 2021 before cooling in 2022," the survey found.

  • NABE economists expect the Consumer Price Index, to be 2.8%, year over year (y/y) in Q4 2021, and 2.3% y/y in Q4 2022, compared to 1.2% in 2020.
  • Panelists also anticipate that the Fed's favored measure for inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will rise to 2.2% y/y in Q4 2021, and 2.1% y/y in Q4 2022.
  • In March, the survey showed expectations for 1.9% inflation at the end of 2021.

Go deeper

Axios-Ipsos poll: Vaccine hesitancy may be crumbling

Expand chart
Data: Axios/Ipsos Poll; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. is showing signs of crumbling, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

  • Fewer adults than ever now say they won't take the shot, and in the past two weeks there has been a sharp increase in the share of parents who plan to get their younger kids vaccinated as soon as it's allowed.
Updated 4 hours ago - Science

Huge wildfire reaches edge of Sequoia National Park

A plume of smoke and flames rise into the air as the fire burns towards Moro Rock during the KNP Complex fire in the Sequoia National Park near Three Rivers, California, on Saturday. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Firefighters in Sequoia National Park were working into the night after two wildfires merged to reach the Giant Forest Saturday.

Why it matters: This forest contains over 2,000 giant sequoias, including the General Sherman Tree — the world's largest tree by volume. Park officials wrapped the redwoods in foil last week as the Paradise and Colony Fires, now known as the KNP Complex Fire, neared. Protection efforts appeared to be working overnight.

4 hours ago - World

Hong Kong holds first "patriots only" elections

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam during a news conference last Monday. Photo: Lui Siu Wai/Xinhua via Getty Images

Hong Kong's elections to choose the city's Election Committee members opened to a select group of voters on Sunday, under a new "patriots only" system imposed by China's government.

Why it matters: All candidates running to be members of the electoral college have been "vetted" by Beijing, per Reuters. They will go on to choose the Asian financial hub's next leader, approved by China's government, and some of its legislature.