Reproduced from FactSet and Alger; Note: Material slowing of GDP is defined as 50 bps or more of a negative change in the annual real GDP growth rate; Chart: Axios Visuals
Economists have been wearing out their keyboards over the past couple of months writing down expectations for U.S. and global economic growth.
Reality check: Alger chief investment officer Daniel Chung and director of strategy Brad Neuman point out that slower growth does not necessarily mean weak equity returns.
Chung and Neuman note:
"In the past 35 years, there have been 15 years when U.S. GDP growth materially slowed, with the vast majority generating positive U.S. stock returns."
"Returns were negative only when accompanied by a recession (1990, 2000/2001, 2008)"
Reading the graph: Of the 15 times in the last 35 years that year-over-year GDP growth has fallen by at least 50 basis points, or 0.5%, the S&P has still risen in 11 of the 15 years. The gains have been as high as 38% in 1995 and 32% in 2013.
