Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Although the U.S. economy is well into a recovery from the depths of the COVID-19 crisis, there’s been plenty of news along the way that could have battered markets or led to a more sustained correction. But so far, that hasn’t happened.

Why it matters: The equity market still has almost blind faith that the Federal Reserve will bail it out in a time of crisis, and, increasingly in the belief that the current bout of inflation will be largely temporary.

  • "Now we just see flashes of fear, and then it goes away. There's just so much reassurance coming from the Fed," Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, tells Axios.

State of play: Wednesday's market shocks from the big reveal that the Fed might raise rates earlier than expected — in 2023 — have already been somewhat absorbed.

The big picture: In the last few months, the market has shrugged off disappointing jobs reports, surprisingly high inflation growth, and a hard-to-understand labor market imbalance.

  • The longest string of down days in the S&P 500 this year was one five-day period, beginning Feb. 16, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. At the time, investors were beginning to price in stronger and faster inflation.
  • The S&P is up 14% for the year so far.

Yes, but: Economists and analysts continue to underestimate some of the risks to the recovery, particularly noticeable with the missed consensus in recent jobs and inflation data, Hans Mikkelsen, credit strategist at BofA, tells Axios (h/t to a recent BofA report by Mikkelsen, opining that fear is transitory, for the turn of phrase).

  • "I think we're underestimating inflation. And I think we are underestimating how quickly the Fed is going to change its tone," Mikkelsen said in an interview on Wednesday — even before the Fed's latest forecasts came out.

The bottom line: Though markets still have broad support from the Fed, watch for volatility in the next few months since estimating the pace of the recovery has proven difficult, Mikkelsen says.

Go deeper: The day everything — and nothing — changed for the Fed

Go deeper

Watch for a sell-off in August, historically an ugly month for investors

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

August is not friendly to investors, according to history.

Why it matters: Despite its modest decline on Friday, the stock market continues to trade near all-time highs. In fact, the S&P 500 has booked gains for six consecutive months.

2 wildfires ravage Northern California homes as thousands evacuate

Firefighters monitoring the scene as flames from the Dixie Fire jump across highway 89 near Greenville, California, on Tuesday. Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

Two massive California wildfires have triggered new mandatory evacuation orders for thousands of people and destroyed homes and businesses in the state's north overnight.

Details: The Dixie Fire, California's biggest blaze, razed houses and businesses as it ripped through the town of Greenville and surrounding areas in Plumas County Wednesday night. The rapidly spreading River Fire burned "multiple" homes as it tore through Placer and Nevada counties, KOVR notes.

Updated 2 hours ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

Team USA's Ryan Crouser competing on Thursday in the men's Olympic shot put final in Tokyo, which he won. Photo: Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images

🥇: Ryan Crouser breaks his own Olympic shot put record to win gold for U.S.

🏐: U.S. Olympic beach volleyball duo one step away from realizing gold medal dream

🤼🏿‍♀️ "Making history": Mensah-Stock first Black woman to win Olympic wrestling gold

🛹: 2 teens and girl, 12, sweep board at women's park skateboarding

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage