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Voters stand in line at the Metropolitan Multi-Services Center in Houston, Texas, on Oct. 13. Photo: Mark Felix for The Washington Post via Getty Images

91% of likely voters nationally say they are "extremely motivated to vote," including 92% in battleground states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a Change Research/CNBC Poll.

Why it matters: The 2020 election could see record-breaking levels of voter turnout. Voters last week cast ballots at nearly five times the rate they did at this point in the 2016 election, per the U.S. Elections Project. Over 39 million ballots have been cast in early voting states as of Wednesday.

  • Nationally, 53% of Biden voters say they have already voted, compared to 25% of Trump supporters, the Change Research/CNBC Poll finds.
  • 93% of battleground Biden voters say they are "extremely motivated," compared to 94% of Trump voters.

Between the lines, via Axios' Stef Kight: Early voting data signals strong Democratic enthusiasm in key battleground states. But strategists in both parties say Republicans could still overtake that advantage with a surge of in-person turnout on Election Day.

The state of play: According to the poll, Biden is leading by 10 points nationally and by at least 2 points in every battleground state polled:

  • Arizona: Biden 51% to Trump 45%  
  • Florida: Biden 50% to Trump 45%
  • Michigan: Biden 51% to Trump 44%
  • North Carolina: Biden 50% to Trump 47% 
  • Pennsylvania: Biden 49% to Trump 47%
  • Wisconsin: Biden 52% to Trump 44% 

Of note: 52% of polled voters are very or somewhat concerned that President Trump will not accept the outcome of the election unless he wins — including 63% of white college women and 48% of white working-class women.

  • Trump has repeatedly refused to say whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election to Joe Biden.

Methodology: 2,949 likely voters polled by Change Research Oct. 16–19 across six battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 2,711 likely voters were polled Oct. 17–18 in a companion survey. Margin of error ±1.8% for the battleground and ±1.88% for the national poll.

Go deeper

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The top Republicans who have acknowledged Biden as president-elect

Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Some elected Republicans are breaking ranks with President Trump to acknowledge that President-elect Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

Why it matters: The relative sparsity of acknowledgements highlights Trump's lasting power in the GOP, as his campaign moves to file multiple lawsuits alleging voter fraud in key swing states — despite the fact that there have been no credible allegations of any widespread fraud anywhere in the U.S.

GOP Rep. Fred Upton on Trump's push against Michigan election results: "It's over"

Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) told CNN's "Inside Politics" on Sunday that "the voters have spoken” in Michigan, and that it's time to move on from the election after no evidence of mass voter fraud has been found in his home state.

Why it matters: President Trump reached out directly to Republican leaders last week in Michigan as part of a long-shot effort to prevent the state from certifying President-elect Joe Biden’s victory, the New York Times reports.

Longtime diplomat says Trump conspiracies hurt U.S. more than Russia, China

Burns during Senate testimony in 2015. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

A longtime diplomat and Joe Biden adviser tells Axios that the United States has lost international credibility as President Trump spreads conspiracies while challenging his losing election results.

Why it matters: Nicholas Burns, a Harvard professor who previously served presidents from both political parties as a former ambassador and undersecretary of state, says the president's baseless challenges have undercut the U.S. as a beacon of democracy and critical voice against governmental overreach in other nations.