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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

While the rest of the U.S. economy reeled from devastating losses in 2008-9, the tech sector looked on sympathetically while wondering to itself, "Are things really that bad?"

The big picture: That's partly because the tech industry was well insulated from the financial meltdown's real-estate-focused epicenter. And Silicon Valley had already experienced its own financial bust at the start of the decade, leaving the industry with more solid growth and less hot air.

For tech, the 2001-2 recession — considered mild in most of the nation — was epic, scarring.

  • After the dotcom bubble popped, the tech-heavy NASDAQ index lost 3/4 of its value between March 2000 and Dec. 2002.
  • A generation of software developers and designers got to know what it's like to be laid off. San Francisco's South of Market neighborhood — today, a hive of startups and chic luncheries — became a ghost town.
  • If the NASDAQ today experienced a drop like it did in 2000-2002 and the index lost 3/4 of its value, it would fall to 2000, squashing today's cushy portfolios, beheading unicorns and destroying trillion-dollar valuations.

The industry experienced only limited recovery during the mid-2000s, took a brief dive again during the 2008 crisis, and then jumped on a bull for a decade, rising from its spring 2009 low near 1300 to around 8000 today (that's a 600% return).

Modern tech has always been a cyclical industry, but its boom-bust pendulum has been stuck on the side of growth for a full decade now:

  • Cash has flooded in as investors around the world looked for higher returns during a long era of near-zero interest rates set by central banks trying to stoke a broader recovery.
  • Technology investments from previous eras — in everything from fiber backbones to wireless broadband to more versatile software development tools — delivered big payoffs.
  • Innovations in machine learning and AI, device miniaturization, cryptocurrency, and autonomous vehicles held out one promise after another of uninterrupted growth.

The bottom line: Tech is hardly immune from future downturns, and any number of disasters — from a full-on trade war with China to a massive earthquake along the San Andreas — could trigger a race to the exits.

  • A single big bust is less likely than a series of smaller pops, as enthusiastic investors and funds overplay their hands on one tech fad after another. For instance, a lot of experts think there's a bubble in scooters right now.

Go deeper

Cuomo: "No way I resign" after sexual harassment accusations

Cuomo at a Feb. 24 press conference. Photo: Seth Wenig/pool/AFP via Getty Images

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) was defiant on Sunday, stating again that he would not resign even as more former aides have come forward with allegations of sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior.

The big picture: Cuomo has denied all sexual harassment allegations against him and said that he "never inappropriately touched anybody." He acknowledged in a statement that "some of the things I have said have been misinterpreted as an unwanted flirtation." Some of the calls for Cuomo to resign have come from within the Democratic party.

N.Y. Times faces culture clashes as business booms

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

New York Times columnist David Brooks' resignation from a paid gig at a think tank on Saturday is the latest in a flurry of scandals that America's biggest and most successful newspaper company has endured in the past year.

Driving the news: Brooks resigned from the Aspen Institute following a BuzzFeed News investigation that uncovered conflicts of interest between his reporting and money he accepted from corporate donors for a project called "Weave" that he worked on at the nonprofit.

America rebalances its post-Trump news diet

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Nearly halfway through President Biden's first 100 days, data shows that Americans are learning to wean themselves off of news — and especially politics.

Why it matters: The departure of former President Trump's once-ubiquitous presence in the news cycle has reoriented the country's attention.