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Photo: Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

Senior administration officials tell Axios that a trade deal with China isn't close and that the U.S. could be in for a long trade war.

The state of play: A senior administration official said the differences between the two sides are so profound that, based on his read of the situation, he can't see the fight getting resolved before the end of the year.

  • Trump yesterday held out the possibility of meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Japan next month. That statement may have been made in part to calm the stock market, which yesterday had its worst day since January. (Lead Financial Times headline: Global markets reel.")

The bottom line: White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was right when he said on Sunday that "both sides will suffer" in a U.S.-China trade war.

  • The Chinese economy will be harmed. But so, too, will America's. And so will American consumers, who will pay higher prices, and American farmers, who will be targeted for retaliation by China.
  • The question remains: Can Trump, facing a re-election race in 2020, outlast China's "president for life"?
  • Both Trump and Xi have to contend with hardliners in their parties. But only one of them can harness all the tools of authoritarianism.

Trump’s mindset on the Chinese is simple: They only respond to shows of brute force.

  • And he thinks they’ll suffer more than America will, because they buy fewer products.

I've asked several current and former administration officials whether Trump actually believes that China pays the tariffs — rather than the reality that U.S. importers and consumers do.

  • The consensus is "yes": That's what he actually believes.
  • And as one former aide said: There’s little point trying to persuade Trump otherwise, because his belief in tariffs is "like theology."

Go deeper ... Trump's trade war: Where American workers are hit hardest

Go deeper

Texas abortion law remains in effect after appeals court ruling

Pro- and anti-abortion protesters outside the Supreme Court as arguments begin about the Texas abortion law on Capitol Hill in November. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

A U.S. appeals court transferred a challenge to Texas' law banning most abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy to the state supreme court in a 2-1 vote on Monday evening.

Why it matters: The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals' decision means the country's most restrictive abortion law can remain in place for the time being.

2 hours ago - World

At least 2 dead after Tonga volcano eruption and tsunami

A satellite image of the explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on Saturday. Photo: UNICEF/NOAA

At least two people are confirmed to have died in Tonga following the undersea volcanic eruption that sent tsunami waves toward the island nation and across the Pacific over the weekend, officials said Monday.

The big picture: Officials reported major damage along the western coast of the main island of Tongatapu, where the capital, Nuku'alofa, was covered in ash and dust, including on the runway of the airport. A New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson told Axios over the phone that two people had been confirmed to have died in the disaster.

Airlines call for Biden admin's "immediate intervention" in 5G deployment

Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The CEOs of leading U.S. air cargo and passenger carriers on Monday warned the Biden administration there could be "catastrophic disruption" after AT&T and Verizon deploy a new 5G service this week.

Driving the news: They said in a letter to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other top federal officials ahead of the C-Band 5G service's deployment Wednesday that "the nation's commerce will grind to a halt" and "could potentially strand tens of thousands of Americans overseas."