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Surrendering in Texas. Photo: John Moore / Getty

About 200,000 Salvadorans face deportation next year under a decision by the Trump administration, creating a potential crisis in numerous industries including construction and other trades. But an increasing view is that many of them will simply go underground.

Quick take: In all, some 300,000 Salvadorans, Haitians and Hondurans either have already been ordered to go or could be. But given conditions back home, experts say, there is a strong chance that many of them will choose to take their chances in the U.S.

"I tend to believe that most Salvadorans will stay and go underground, slipping into undocumented status," José Miguel Cruz, a professor at Florida International University, tells Axios. "The reason: they don’t see going back to El Salvador as a choice, not only for economic reasons but also due to safety."

The background: The Salvadorans have been in the U.S. under Temporary Protected Status since 2001, when George W. Bush permitted them in because of a deadly earthquake in El Salvador. Some 88% of them are now in the U.S. labor force, earning an average of $50k a year, according to the Cato Institute.

Cruz goes on:

"In going back to El Salvador, they are putting their survival at risk; in staying in the U.S. they will live with anxiety of being deported but safer (and with their families). Obviously, there will be economic repercussions for the community at large: they will have to accept meager salaries and lower quality employment, and that will create problems of its own in the U.S. But they will try to hang on."

Go deeper

Updated 33 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Capitol review panel recommends more police, mobile fencing

Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

A panel appointed by Congress to review security measures at the Capitol is recommending several changes, including mobile fencing and a bigger Capitol police force, to safeguard the area after a riotous mob breached the building on Jan. 6.

Why it matters: Law enforcement officials have warned there could be new plots to attack the area and target lawmakers, including during a speech President Biden is expected to give to a joint session of Congress.

CDC says fully vaccinated people can take fewer precautions

Photo: Filip Filipovic/Getty Images

People who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can take fewer precautions in certain situations, including socializing indoors without masks when in the company of low-risk or other vaccinated individuals, according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Monday.

Why it matters: Per the report, there's early evidence that suggests vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and are potentially less likely to transmit the virus to other people. At the time of its publication, the CDC said the guidance would apply to about 10% of Americans.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Ripple CEO calls for clearer crypto regulations following SEC lawsuit

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse tells "Axios on HBO" that if his company loses a lawsuit brought by the SEC, it would put the U.S. cryptocurrency industry at a competitive disadvantage.

Why it matters: Garlinghouse's comments may seem self-serving, but his call for clearer crypto rules is consistent with longstanding entreaties from other industry players.