Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.

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*Ohio vote totals are preliminary; Notes: The Cook Partisan Voter Index is a measure of how liberal or conservative a district leans based on the two most recent presidential elections; Data: Ballotpedia, Cook Political Report, and Associated Press; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 30,588,989 — Total deaths: 953,482— Total recoveries: 20,832,830Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 6,745,190 — Total deaths: 198,921 — Total recoveries: 2,556,465 — Total tests: 93,150,052Map.
  3. Politics: In reversal, CDC again recommends coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people.
  4. Health: The dwindling chances of eliminating COVID-19.
  5. World: Guatemalan president tests positive for COVID-19.

Schumer: "Nothing is off the table" if GOP moves to fill Ginsburg's seat

Sen. Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told congressional Democrats on a conference call Saturday that "nothing is off the table next year" if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his Republican allies move to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Supreme Court seat in the coming weeks.

Why it matters: Schumer's comments come amid calls from fellow Democrats to expand the number of judges on the Supreme Court if President Trump and Senate Republicans move to fill the newly empty seat next time the party holds a majority in the Senate.

ActBlue collects record-breaking $30 million in hours after Ginsburg's death

A makeshift memorial in honor of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 19. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

ActBlue, the Democratic donation-processing site, reported a record-breaking $30 million raised from 9 pm Friday to 9 am Saturday in the aftermath of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, NPR writes and ActBlue confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters via the New York Times: "The unprecedented outpouring shows the power of a looming Supreme Court confirmation fight to motivate Democratic donors."