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Exclusive poll: Democrats have an edge on health care

Data: SurveyMonkey online poll conducted July 25-27, 2018 among a total sample of 2,509 adults living in the United States. Margin of error of ±3 percentage points; Poll methodology; Chart: Kerrie Vila/Axios

Democrats' health care message is resonating with critically important blocs of midterm voters, according to the latest Axios/SurveyMonkey polling on how five key voter groups view the issues in the election.

The big picture: Democrats are moving left on health care. Embracing the Affordable Care Act is now a given, and candidates are increasingly embracing a bigger role for the federal government. The voters they'll need most this fall — including white suburban women and Millennials — are largely on board.

By the numbers: We asked five groups of voters whether Congress should expand the ACA, leave it alone, shrink it, or repeal it altogether.

  • "Change it so it does more" was the most popular option among African-American women (at 50%); Millennials (41%); white suburban women (47%) and #NeverHillary independents (47%).
  • President Trump got low marks from the same populations: Majorities of each said they disapproved of how he has approached health care.

Rural voters were the exception on both counts. They were split on Trump, and a plurality supported repealing the ACA.

Why it matters: This is why Democrats want to be talking about health care this fall — and it's also why the progressive wing of the party feels so comfortable staking out a more liberal position on health care, whether that's the revival of a public insurance option or some form of "Medicare for All."

What to watch: We'll be revisiting these groups and their views on different topics each week in the run-up to November's votes.

Methodology: The SurveyMonkey online surveys were conducted July 25-27 among 2,509 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. Sample sizes and modeled error estimates for the subgroups are: African-American Women (n=136, +/- 9); Millennials Age 18 - 34 (n=465, +/- 5.5); White Suburban Women  (n=456, +/- 6.5); NeverHillary/Independent voters  (n=180, +/- 10); Rural  (n=586, +/- 5.5).

Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. More information about our methodology here. Crosstabs available here.

Go deeper: Medicare for All is a winner in Democratic primaries.

This story has been updated to note that Axios and SurveyMonkey will be tracking the voting groups' views between now and the midterms.