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Map: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

A first look for Axios readers: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has a detailed map of where Democrats and Republicans are ahead in party registration among voters.

Why it matters, from Rhodes Cook: "The Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party."

Key numbers: Among the 31 states (plus D.C.) with party registration, there are nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

  • 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents.
  • In 19 states (plus D.C.) there are more registered Democrats; in the remaining 12 there are more registered Republicans.
  • This can make all the difference. A quick look back to 2016 shows Trump won 11 of those 12 states with more Republican registered voters.

The full piece by veteran political reporter Rhodes Cook will be available in Thursday’s edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan elections newsletter. Sign up for the free newsletter here.

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