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Map: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

A first look for Axios readers: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has a detailed map of where Democrats and Republicans are ahead in party registration among voters.

Why it matters, from Rhodes Cook: "The Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party."

Key numbers: Among the 31 states (plus D.C.) with party registration, there are nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

  • 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents.
  • In 19 states (plus D.C.) there are more registered Democrats; in the remaining 12 there are more registered Republicans.
  • This can make all the difference. A quick look back to 2016 shows Trump won 11 of those 12 states with more Republican registered voters.

The full piece by veteran political reporter Rhodes Cook will be available in Thursday’s edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan elections newsletter. Sign up for the free newsletter here.

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What they're saying: Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court

Judge Amy Coney Barrett in the Rose Garden of the White House on Sept. 26. Photo: Oliver Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Democratic and Republican lawmakers along with other leading political figures reacted to President Trump's Saturday afternoon nomination of federal appeals court Judge Amy Coney Barrett to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court.

What they're saying: "President Trump could not have made a better decision," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement. "Judge Amy Coney Barrett is an exceptionally impressive jurist and an exceedingly well-qualified nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States."

Amy Coney Barrett: "Should I be confirmed, I will be mindful of who came before me"

Trump introduces Amy Coney Barrett as nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Photo: Olivier Douleiry/Getty Images

In speaking after President Trump announced her as the Supreme Court nominee to replaced Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Circuit Court Judge Amy Coney Barrett said on Saturday she will be "mindful" of those who came before her on the court if confirmed.

What she's saying: Barrett touched on Ginsburg's legacy, as well as her own judicial philosophy and family values. "I love the United States and I love the United States Constitution," she said. "I'm truly humbled at the prospect of serving on the  Supreme Court."

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