Investors still view COVID as a market risk for the second half of 2021

What they’re saying: According to BofA’s June Global Fund Manager Survey, 10% of investors continued to identify COVID-19 as the biggest risk.

• "As we head toward the end of the year, there will undoubtedly be a COVID scare — an outbreak somewhere — that could rile the market for a bit," RBA strategist Richard Bernstein tells Axios.
• "COVID — vaccines, variants — remains an important issue to monitor," says RBC’s Calvasina. But investors "almost universally are baking in an optimistic virus backdrop."
• "I would not declare victory yet," Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. "I just would encourage people to continue to get vaccinated."

Threat level: The degree to which an event will rattle markets is inversely related to how much people are already thinking about it.

• As Calvasina tells Axios: "I worry more about the things that aren’t on investors’ horizons at all."

The bottom line: For now, the pandemic's direct impact on business is nearly gone — but not forgotten.