Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Both the U.S. and global economies are set to be permanently altered by the coronavirus outbreak and the measures that have been taken in response to it, experts say.

The state of play: "Fundamentally there are going to be huge changes in household consumption patterns, business patterns and global supply chains," Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and current economics lecturer at Stanford, said during a Reuters teleconference.

  • "Recall how different the landscape was — not just for banks — in the last crisis. And this one seems to be having a bigger imprint on society."

The big picture: "History is now on fast forward," Robert D. Kaplan, managing director at Eurasia Group, said during a separate teleconference hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.

What it means: Many of the changes to the world order that have been slowly creeping in will now be accelerated.

  • Most importantly, there will likely be a retrenchment of globalization and international cooperation combined with further cementing of a winner-takes-all climate in which the biggest and most powerful companies and countries bowl over and eliminate smaller competitors.
  • This is "globalization 2.0," Kaplan said.

What to watch: No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November, the challenges will be unprecedented, Kurt M. Campbell, a former assistant secretary of state and current CEO of Asia Group, said during the CFR teleconference.

  • "The next president ... is going to face a situation where the coffers are empty, many businesses are bankrupt, the social safety net has been ripped and at the same time we have a rising power in the East."

The last word: The changes resulting from the virus are likely to be extreme, but induced over time.

  • Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, predicts the post-virus world will include a more risk-averse public that prioritizes savings, "similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s."

Slok foresees:

  • More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas, sporting events and the like, meaning fewer people.
  • Less vacation and business travel, coupled with more global government restrictions, at least until a vaccine is developed, cutting back consumer and business spending.
  • Fewer stock buybacks and lower dividend payments.
  • Regulations forcing households and corporates to hold potentially three months of cash in emergency savings.
  • A significant increase in the supply of government bonds, risking a debt crisis.

As hard as coronavirus is going to hit the industrialized world, the impact on the developing world is going to be significantly more severe, analysts warn.

  • "The needs of Africa, Latin America and the Middle East will be far greater than the capacity that the IMF and other international aid institutions have the ability to meet," CFR president Richard N. Haass said during the teleconference.

One level deeper: If outbreaks of the virus get severe in poorer, developing countries, many don't have the same ability to take social distancing measures because of limited technology and much larger household sizes, Kaplan added.

  • Many are also highly dependent on commodity prices, which have taken major hits because of the virus, and others rely heavily on tourism.
  • "These nations are between a rock and a hard place," Kaplan said. "Governments will really be squeezed."

Go deeper: The coronavirus economy will devastate those who can least afford it

Go deeper

Tech scrambles to derail inauguration threats

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tech companies are sharing more information with law enforcement in a frantic effort to prevent violence around the inauguration, after the government was caught flat-footed by the Capitol siege.

Between the lines: Tech knows it will be held accountable for any further violence that turns out to have been planned online if it doesn't act to stop it.

Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

Uganda's election: Museveni declared winner, Wine claims fraud

Wine rejected the official results of the election. Photo: Sumy Sadruni/AFP via Getty

Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of a sixth presidential term on Saturday, with official results giving him 59% to 35% for Bobi Wine, the singer-turned-opposition leader.

Why it matters: This announcement was predictable, as the election was neither free nor fair and Museveni had no intention of surrendering power after 35 years. But Wine — who posed a strong challenged to Museveni, particularly in urban areas, and was beaten and arrested during the campaign — has said he will present evidence of fraud. The big question is whether he will mobilize mass resistance in the streets.

Off the Rails

Episode 1: A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 1: Trump’s refusal to believe the election results was premeditated. He had heard about the “red mirage” — the likelihood that early vote counts would tip more Republican than the final tallies — and he decided to exploit it.

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!