People eat at the outdoor dining area of a restaurant in New York City. Photo: Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty Images

Given the reporting lag for most traditional economic indicators, investors have turned to real-time data to assess the U.S. economy. Almost all of which shows business activity stalling or declining.

What's happening: Economists at Jefferies write in a note to clients that their in-house economic activity index has "flat-lined" and "has now been moving sideways for the past three weeks."

  • "The loss of momentum is broad-based, spanning small business activity, discretionary footfall, restaurant bookings, traffic congestion, and web traffic to state unemployment portals."
  • "Regional data show particular weakness in virus-hit states, where V-shaped recoveries are morphing into Ws."
  • "Given the timing of the hit, official June data are likely to be spared, but there is clear downside for July data."

The big picture: The coronavirus pandemic appears to be worsening in larger portions of the country, Goldman Sachs economists write in a note to clients.

  • States with more than half the U.S. population now meet just one or none of the CDC-recommended gating criteria for reopening — established benchmarks, such as 14 days of fewer COVID-19 cases and fewer people with symptoms.
  • CDC guidelines propose the use of six gating indicators to assess when municipalities should move from one phase to another.

Yes, but: The increased detection of these COVID-19 cases lowers the probability and severity of any second wave of infections, researchers at Bank of America note.

  • University of Washington's IHME model estimates daily new infections peaked at 243,000 on March 23, but there were so few test kits available that only 8% were detected, according to BofA.
  • Currently the IHME model suggests there are about 69,000 new daily COVID-19 infections in the United States.
  • "Because testing is becoming increasingly plentiful and sophisticated ... more than half those daily infections are now being detected."

Go deeper

Coronavirus hotspots begin to improve

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Danielle Alberti, Sara Wise/Axios

Coronavirus infections are falling or holding steady in most of the country, including the hard-hit hotspots of Arizona, California and Florida.

The big picture: A decline in new infections is always good news, but don't be fooled: the U.S. still has a very long way to go to recover from this summer's surge.

Updated 17 hours ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios VisualsThe

The Philippines' economy sunk into recession as its gross domestic product shrank 16.5% in the second quarter — marking the lowest reading since 1981, official figures show.

The big picture: Millions of Filipinos went on lockdown Tuesday as cases surged past 106,300, with stay-at-home orders in place for two weeks in Manila and nearby provinces on the island of Luzon, per the BBC. The economy's contraction is the "deepest" on record, Bloomberg notes.

GOP Rep. Rodney Davis tests positive for coronavirus

Rep. Rodney Davis. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) announced on Wednesday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Why it matters: Davis, the top Republican on the House Administration Committee, said he has taken precautions against the virus, such as twice-daily temperature checks. He spoke to Republicans about staying safe after Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tex.) recently tested positive for the virus and spoke out against wearing face masks, Politico notes.