The International Energy Agency's monthly market analysis released Thursday says global oil demand will fall by 435,000 barrels per day during this quarter compared to the same period a year ago.

Why it matters: It's the first quarterly contraction in over a decade.

  • The agency also revised its total 2020 demand growth figure. They now see global oil thirst growing by 825,000 barrels per day this year, which is 365,000 lower than their previous forecast.
  • That would be the smallest expansion since 2011, as the IEA noted "significant" market consequences from the tragedy.

The big picture: The report underscores something we highlighted last week — China's enormous influence on global energy markets and the spillover effect when travel and economic activist is curtailed. Last year China accounted for over three-quarters of global demand growth, IEA notes.

  • "While the SARS epidemic of 2003 is widely used as a reference point for analysis of COVID-19, China has changed enormously since then."
  • "Today, it is central to global supply chains and there has been an enormous increase in travel to and from the country, thus heightening the risk of the virus spreading."

But, but, but: While today's report puts a highlighter pen over all this, crude markets have already priced in a lot of the demand shock.

  • Crude prices have tumbled sharply over the last few weeks to their lowest levels since early last year as the outbreak worsened, but have made up some ground in recent days.

Go deeper: Coronavirus cases spike after China revises diagnosis criteria

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GOP fears "little guy" attack on Amy Coney Barrett

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

White House aides and Senate Republicans have spent the past week readying binders full of messaging and rebuttals to guide Judge Amy Coney Barrett to a pre-Nov. 3 confirmation. "We knew for days it was going to be Amy," a Senate GOP aide involved in her confirmation process told Axios.

What we're hearing: Beyond the expected questions about her views on religion, abortion and health care, Republicans worry about Democrats painting Barrett as someone who is insensitive and unfair to “the little guy,” one source involved in the talks told Axios.

Updated 32 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 4:30 p.m. ET: 32,938,616 — Total deaths: 995,465 — Total recoveries: 22,782,724Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 4:30 p.m. ET: 7,101,774 — Total deaths: 204,618 — Total recoveries: 2,750,459 — Total tests: 100,492,536Map.
  3. States: 3 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — New York daily cases top 1,000 for first time since June.
  4. Health: The long-term pain of the mental health pandemicFewer than 10% of Americans have coronavirus antibodies.
  5. Business: Millions start new businesses in time of coronavirus.
  6. Education: Summer college enrollment offers a glimpse of COVID-19's effect.

Debate commission co-chair: We don't expect moderators to fact-check candidates

Presidential Debate Commission co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. said Sunday he doesn't expect Fox News anchor Chris Wallace or any of the other moderators to fact-check President Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden at the debates.

What he's saying: "There's a vast difference between being a moderator in a debate and being a reporter who is interviewing someone," Fahrenkopf said on CNN's "Reliable Sources."