Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Reproduced from Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals

The CBO released projections on Monday for U.S. nominal GDP to be lower by $15.7 trillion over the next decade than its estimate in January as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

What they're saying: It predicts that when adjusted for inflation GDP will be $7.9 trillion lower over the next decade and down by $790 billion in the second quarter of this year — a 37.7% quarterly contraction.

Why it matters: “Slower growth means higher unemployment, lower wages, and less income for people," Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork, told the Washington Post. "What we are looking at is another decade of that."

  • The report is an expansion of the CBO's forecast released last month that projected unemployment above 11% for the rest of 2020 and severe economic decline over the next two years.
  • The update shows expectations for the virus' impact to depress growth for much longer.

Between the lines: According to the projections, unemployment remains above 9% until the third quarter of next year and above 6% through 2026. It predicts the unemployment rate will not return to 2019's record low levels within the next 10 years.

  • That means millions of jobs will be permanently lost.

How it works: "The two largest differences between the two forecasts result from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in reducing output and the legislation enacted between January and early May in response, which partly offsets that reduction," CBO said in its report.

  • The pandemic is expected to cut consumer spending and force the closure of more businesses, weighing on the country's growth.

Yes, but: The projections are for the economy's growth absent more spending from Congress or policy shifts from the Fed and both bodies appear unlikely to stand on the sidelines for the next decade.

  • “Immediate action is needed to protect lives and livelihoods during this unprecedented moment of catastrophe," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement Friday.
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly urged that the central bank is "committed to doing everything we can as long as we need to."

The last word: Further reductions in economic output will result from stagnating inflation, the agency said, expecting it "to be weaker as a result of the pandemic."

  • Long-term depressed inflation had been a problem confounding policymakers long before the coronavirus hit.

Go deeper: Imminent GDP numbers will quantify severity of America's economic collapse

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 8, 2020 - Economy & Business

Possible restrictions on Chinese chip exports could do harm to U.S. growth

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Trump administration's trade war with China and the coronavirus pandemic have crippled U.S. exports this year and could worsen as the administration reportedly is considering export restrictions on China’s most advanced manufacturer of semiconductors.

Where it stands: The U.S. trade deficit has risen to its highest since July 2008 and U.S. exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP shrank to the lowest level since 2003 in the second quarter.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
Sep 8, 2020 - Economy & Business

There aren't enough jobs for America's unemployed

Expand chart
Data: Indeed; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

The number of unemployed Americans vastly outnumbers the number of open jobs in every single state.

Why it matters: Even though we've come back from the worst unemployment numbers, the pandemic's economic toll keeps turning furloughs into job losses — and pushing millions of people out of the workforce entirely.

In photos: Protesters rally for George Floyd ahead of Derek Chauvin's trial

Chaz Neal, a Redwing community activist, outside the Minnesota Governor's residence during a protest in support of George Floyd in St.Paul, Minnesota, on March 6. Photo: Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images

Dozens of protesters were rallying outside the Minnesota governor's mansion in St Paul Saturday, urging justice for George Floyd ahead of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin's trial over the 46-year-old's death.

The big picture: Chauvin faces charges for second-degree murder and manslaughter over Floyd's death last May, which ignited massive nationwide and global protests against racism and for police reform. His trial is due to start this Monday, with jury selection procedures.