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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Some 250,000 to 370,000 deaths may have been averted between March and May 15 as a result of the statewide stay-at-home orders enacted to mitigate spread of the coronavirus, a study published Thursday in Health Affairs projects.

Why it matters: The U.S. has changed strategies since then. New modeling suggests the outbreaks could lead to more than 200,000 deaths by the end of year.

By the numbers: The daily mortality growth rate decreased 6.1% between March 21 and May 15 within the District of Columbia and the 42 states that implemented shelter-in-place orders.

  • As many as 750,000 to 840,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations were also avoided during the same time period, based on data collected from 19 states.

Yes, but: The study acknowledges shutdowns are an economic burden that may lead to other causes of death, and are not sustainable over extensive periods.

Go deeper

Oct 17, 2020 - Health

N.Y. deploys "micro-cluster strategy" to target coronavirus "block by block"

New York state Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks at a news conference. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Saturday announced the state will deploy a "micro-cluster strategy" to target the coronavirus "block-by-block" instead of at the statewide or regional levels.

Why it matters: Cuomo said that while New York's infection rate has remained relatively low — at an average of 1.1% average as of Saturday — “the fall is a new phase."

The industries that won’t recover without a vaccine

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Industries that were once expected to recover after the initial coronavirus lockdowns lifted are now unlikely to bounce back until a vaccine arrives.

Why it matters: In the absence of a widely-adopted vaccine, businesses in the entertainment, travel, restaurant and other industries are struggling to overcome consumer skepticism around indoor activities — even with new safety protocols in place.

Oct 17, 2020 - Health

Kamala Harris to campaign in Florida on Monday

Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Image

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) took a COVID-19 test on Saturday and the virus was not detected, according to a campaign aide.

Driving the news: The Democratic vice presidential nominee paused her campaign travel through Sunday after her communications director tested positive for the coronavirus.