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Economists at major investment banks are expecting to see job growth reverse course when July's jobs report is released on Friday.

Why it matters: After 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs in April, the worst jobs report in history, May and June saw an unexpected bounce in hiring, but data suggest that bounce has ended.

What they're saying: "[S]ome survey indicators are suggesting that labor market progress has already rolled over and July payrolls could be negative," Deutsche Bank economists said in a note to clients.

  • They expect July's report to show a loss of 400,000 jobs, but warn "it is not clear that the recent rolling over in labor market data will be fully captured in next week's July jobs report."

It could be worse: "High frequency data suggest that the labor market recovery is stalling due to the worsening virus situation," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients Friday night.

  • "Our trackers suggest that current household employment has fallen by roughly one million since the June survey week."

Yes, but: Economists' predictions were off by 10 million in May. So there's that.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Oct 28, 2020 - Economy & Business

Coronavirus surge is sinking consumer confidence

Data: Hamilton Place Strategies, CivicScience; Chart: Axios Visuals

The rise in coronavirus cases in certain parts of the U.S. is stunting confidence across the country, a crop of new reports show.

Driving the news: After stalling during the previous two-week period, overall economic sentiment declined for the first time in two months, according to the Economic Sentiment Index, a biweekly survey from data firm CivicScience and Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS).

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
Feb 24, 2019 - Economy & Business

Mobile banking heats up

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

American banks are minting money. In 2018, they made $237 billion in profits, bringing their average return on assets to an extremely healthy 1.35%. That's up from 0.97% in 2017. With banking so profitable, a lot of new players are looking to get in on the game, or to increase their market share.

The big picture: In a tech-obsessed world, a broad range of institutions have decided that the future of banking lies in apps. The logic is simple: Increasingly, Americans want to bank on their phones, rather than in expensive-to-maintain branches, so banks should give them what they want.

13 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Congressional Hispanics want Lujan Grisham at HHS

Michelle Lujan Grisham arriving on Capitol Hill. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Hispanic lawmakers are openly lobbying to have New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham be named Health and Human Services secretary, according to a letter obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: These members are now following the example some Black lawmakers have used for weeks: trying to convince Joe Biden his political interests will be served by rewarding certain demographic groups with Cabinet picks.