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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

While industrial robots may get more of the attention, the real acceleration in workplace automation will come via software.

Why it matters: Robotic process automation (RPA) allows companies to program computer software to emulate the actions of a human worker online. That potentially opens up a much larger portion of the economy to automation at a moment when the pandemic has already forced businesses to go remote.

A recent survey from Bain and Company of nearly 800 executives worldwide estimated that the number of companies scaling up such automation technologies is set to double over the next two years — and that coronavirus will almost certainly accelerate that timeline.

  • Businesses are already using automated bots to respond to the pandemic, says Michael Heric, the leader of Bain's Automation Center of Excellence and a co-author of the report. That includes processing testing kits and helping with SBA loan applications.
  • "We see a lot of clients saying that remote work during the pandemic demonstrates that some of this activity should be automated as well," says Heric.

Details: Physical robots are certainly getting a boost as companies respond both to the pandemic and the economic downturn, as I wrote in Future last week. But software agents that can automate business processes — which, somewhat confusingly, are also referred to as "robots" — can be introduced more rapidly to a much wider range of companies, especially as more of the economy moves online.

  • UiPath, a leading RPA vendor, is working with a hospital in Dublin to produce software robots capable of rapidly disseminating COVID-19 test results, which the company says can save nurses as much as three hours of work per day.
  • IPsoft has developed an "AI digital colleague" called Amelia that can work to intelligently answer service requests for banks, IT desks, and other businesses that interface online with customers. More recently, the company has used Amelia to help the AskMD platform screen users online for COVID-19 symptoms.
  • Gloat provides an AI platform that helps HR departments in large companies like Schneider Electric provide career development for employees — a particularly challenging task at a moment when most workers have been forced to operate remotely.

What they're saying: RPA was already on the rise before COVID-19 hit, thanks to continually improving machine learning technology. But the unique circumstances of the pandemic — and the tendency of companies to invest in labor-replacing automation during economic downturns — will see it infiltrating the economy even faster.

  • At an uncertain moment when companies might need to rapidly scale up or down certain parts of their business, "software robots give you immense flexibility," says Ashim Gupta, the chief financial officer at UiPath.
  • With the physical world largely off-limits for an unknown period of time, companies need to go digital first, says Jonathan Crane, chief commercial officer for IPsoft. "We need to do this polar shift from the days when business processes were managed by people and assisted by technology, to one where business processes are managed by technology and assisted by humans."

The catch: While industrial robots have and will continue to displace some human workers in manufacturing and other physical occupations, more than three-quarters of the U.S. economy is now provided by the services sector. That means vastly more jobs are at least somewhat at risk from the spread of this brand of automation, on top of the tens of millions of jobs already lost during the initial months of the pandemic.

  • "There are very serious displacement problems that we should be worried about," says Michael Lotito, co-chair of the Workplace Policy Institute at Littler. "If we don't embrace these issues now, there are opportunities here for social unrest."

Yes, but: Companies in the space insist that software robots are less about outright replacing human employees than augmenting them by taking low-level, repetitive work off their hands. The result is what some experts call a "hybrid workforce."

  • "This isn't primarily about reducing costs," says UiPath's Gupta. "This is about using robots to handle a surge in volume."
  • Bain's Heric notes that many of the lowest-skilled service jobs — like those found in call centers — had already been outsourced from the U.S. to countries like India and the Philippines, and that workers there could be in trouble. "That's where the impact of automation is really going to be felt."

The bottom line: The pandemic has shown us that many of us can do our jobs remotely because at the end of the day, we're primarily working with a computer online. Don't be surprised if more and more of that work is done by the computer itself.

Go deeper

Aug 7, 2020 - Technology

Enterprise tech gets popularity boost from pandemic

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic has been a boon to enterprise technology companies that don't typically get as much attention and recognition as their social media counterparts.

Driving the news: Computer, electronics and video companies like Zoom, IBM, Dell, Samsung, Apple and Microsoft lead the way when it comes to consumers' opinion of their ethics, trust and vision, while social networks like Facebook and Twitter lag because of concerns about misinformation, according to a new Axios/Harris 100 poll.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
Aug 8, 2020 - Economy & Business

The silver linings of online school

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Online learning can be frustrating for students, teachers and parents, but some methods are working.

The big picture: Just as companies are using this era of telework to try new things, some principals, teachers and education startups are treating remote learning as a period of experimentation, too.

Scoop: Biden weighs retired general Lloyd Austin for Pentagon chief

Lloyd Austin testifying before Congress in 2015. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Joe Biden is considering retired four-star general Lloyd Austin as his nominee for Defense secretary, adding him to a shortlist that includes Jeh Johnson, Tammy Duckworth and Michele Flournoy, two sources with direct knowledge of the decision-making tell Axios.

Why it matters: A nominee for Pentagon chief was noticeably absent when the president-elect rolled out his national security team Tuesday. Flournoy had been widely seen as the likely pick, but Axios is told other factors — race, experience, Biden's comfort level — have come into play.

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