Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic's spread around the globe looks to be intensifying, bringing closer a worst-case scenario in which many of the world's developing countries are left with economic damage that is deep and long-lasting.

Why it matters: The Great Lockdown, as the IMF calls it, is pushing the world into a synchronized recession unlike any seen before.

Driving the news: The IMF lowered its global growth projection for 2020, expecting a 4.9% contraction this year — almost two percentage points lower than it predicted in April.

  • It also lowered expectations for U.S. growth to -8% for 2020 and reduced its 2021 global growth prediction to 5.4% from 5.8%.

What they're saying: As painful as the 2008 global financial crisis was, only 11 advanced economies were severely impacted, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said during this week's Bloomberg Global Invest summit.

  • "This time if advanced economies are seeing problems it actually pales in comparison to some of the problems and challenges the developing countries and emerging markets are seeing because they don’t have fiscal space to try to counter the effects of the lockdowns."
  • "The issue is how do you support countries in which revenue has collapsed. If you rely on tourism, tourism has collapsed, if you rely on commodities, commodity exports and volumes are down."

The intrigue: Advanced economies such as the U.S., eurozone and Japan have the ability to borrow and lend virtually unlimited sums of money to support their populations, but developing countries are forced to turn to organizations like the IMF and World Bank, which already have provided a record amount of aid and lending, Reinhart noted.

  • "The international community simply doesn’t have that kind of firepower."

Watch this space: Fitch downgraded Canada's credit rating Wednesday, making it the 24th country to have its sovereign rating downgraded by the agency since March — more than the previous total for any full year dating back to 1994, Fitch analysts tell Axios.

  • Additionally, 30% of the world's sovereign countries were on negative ratings watch as of June 2 and Fitch has taken some form of negative rating action on around 50% of rated sovereigns.
  • "It has definitely been a record year," says Kelli Bissett-Tom, a director at Fitch.

What's next: Ratings downgrades could cost some countries their investment-grade status, meaning fewer investors will be able to buy their bonds and make it more expensive and difficult for them to borrow money in the future.

Go deeper: The U.S. coronavirus recovery may be W-shaped

Go deeper

Global debt now expected to surpass global GDP due to coronavirus stimulus measures

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Coronavirus infections are rising in emerging countries like Brazil, Russia and India, which are now three of the five countries with the highest number of confirmed cases.

Why it matters: To offset some of the negative economic impact from the pandemic, governments have announced massive fiscal packages and new borrowing that threatens their credit ratings and the sustainability of their budgets, the IMF warned in its latest World Economic Outlook.

29 mins ago - Health

15 states broke single-day coronavirus records this week

Data: Compiled from state health departments by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

At least 15 states broke their single-day novel coronavirus infection records this week, according to state health department data reviewed by Axios.

The big picture: The number of coronavirus cases increased in the vast majority of states over the last week, and decreased in only two states plus the District of Columbia, Axios' Andrew Withershoop and Caitlin Owens report.

Updated 47 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 11,143,945 — Total deaths: 527,681 — Total recoveries — 6,004,593Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 2,818,588 — Total deaths: 129,584 — Total recoveries: 883,561 — Total tested: 34,213,497Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona's hot spot reach near capacity.
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Trump extends PPP application deadlineKimberly Guilfoyle tests positive.
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: 31 MLB players test positive as workouts resume.
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.