Data: Morning Consult; Chart: Axios Visuals

Consumer sentiment around the globe is starting to recover, data firm Morning Consult finds, despite economic projections for weakening growth and worse outcomes.

Where it stands: Ratings agency Fitch said Wednesday it expects global GDP to decline by 3.9% this year, "twice as large as the decline" it predicted just weeks ago and "twice as severe as the 2009 recession."

  • Bovino and S&P Global senior U.S. economist Satyam Panday expect U.S. GDP will shrink by 5.2% this year — about four times their March forecast of a 1.3% contraction — and unemployment will hit 19%.
  • "The current recession has likely reduced economic activity by 11.8% peak to trough, which is roughly three times the decline seen during the Great Recession in one-third of the time," they wrote in a recent note to clients.

However, in its latest reading of consumer sentiment, Morning Consult finds respondents are showing increasing optimism about the future, as the number of people who say they expect to be worse off in a year has consistently declined.

  • Sentiment hit an all-time low on April 7, after falling 30% in a matter of days, but has stabilized over the past two weeks.
  • That recovery has came entirely from expectations about the future rather than the present, as the percentage of people who say they are better off financially now than they were 12 months ago and who believe that now is a good time to make a major household purchase remain at all-time lows of 19% and 17%, respectively.

Go deeper: The gamble to re-open the economy

Go deeper

Updated 15 hours ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand confirmed Thursday there are 13 local cases linked to the four who tested positive for COVID-19, ending 102 days of no community spread. Auckland locked down Wednesday for 72 hours and the rest of NZ is under lesser restrictions.

By the numbers: Over 751,000 people have died of the novel coronavirus globally and another 20.7 million have tested positive, per Johns Hopkins. More than 12.8 million have recovered from the virus.

CDC director says he was not involved in decision to change coronavirus data reporting

CDC director Robert Redfield testified Friday that he was not involved in the Trump administration's decision to bypass his agency and instead have hospitals send coronavirus data to the Health and Human Services Department.

Why it matters: According to the COVID Tracking Project, data on coronavirus hospitalizations has been "unstable since July 15" — five days after the change.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 20,952,811 — Total deaths: 760,235— Total recoveries: 13,015,397Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 a.m. ET: 5,254,878 — Total deaths: 167,253 — Total recoveries: 1,774,648 — Total tests: 64,831,306Map.
  3. Health: The pandemic's toll on mental health — The kids who are most at risk.
  4. Business: How small businesses got stiffed — Unemployment starts moving in the right direction.
  5. Politics: Biden signals fall strategy with new ads.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Economic data turns unreliable.