Aug 10, 2017

Computer-powered hedge funds lag the bull market

Even as experts worry over the havoc AI could bring to financial markets, quantitative hedge fund strategies actually aren't outsmarting more human-reliant competitors in recent quarters, according to Bloomberg.

Quant fund managers — who feed huge caches of data to sophisticated, proprietary algorithms to find inefficiencies in the market they can exploit for profit — are struggling to keep pace with the broader market, and some funds, like the once-promising R&F Capital, are shuttering their doors altogether.

Why quants are struggling: Noted quant fund investor Neal Berger wrote in a letter to clients this summer that it comes down to two factors:

  • Increased competition: more investors are using algorithms to fight over the same inefficiencies in the market.
  • Low volatility: quantitative funds are most successful in an environment where there is large disagreements in the market over the prices of assets. Today there is little disagreement, and the best way to earn outsized returns is placed highly leveraged bets that the market will remain calm. That's working for some investors, but is far too risky for others.

So what explains low volatility? Market watchers have been scratching their heads for an explanation for low volatility even as traders have processed important unexpected events like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. But one answer is the increasing popularity of index funds that allow individual investors to buy into a broad diversified set of stocks or other assets that reallocate automatically. Instead of individual investors duking it out with competing stock picks, many are choosing just to buy a small but broad slice of the market, and letting it ride.

What's next: Quants won't take their disappointing returns lying down. Major investors like Paul Tudor Jones are putting money behind investment strategies powered by artificial intelligence that aim to use ever larger data sets and more sophisticated algorithms to weed out profitable inefficiencies in the market.

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  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8 p.m. ET: 857,487 — Total deaths: 42,107 — Total recoveries: 178,034.
  2. U.S.: Leads the world in confirmed cases. Total confirmed cases as of 8 p.m. ET: 188,172 — Total deaths: 3,873 — Total recoveries: 7,024.
  3. Business updates: Should you pay your rent or mortgage during the coronavirus pandemic? Find out if you are protected under the CARES Act.
  4. Public health updates: More than 400 long-term care facilities across the U.S. report patients with coronavirus — Older adults and people with underlying health conditions are more at risk, new data shows.
  5. Federal government latest: President Trump said the next two weeks would be "very painful," with projections indicating the virus could kill 100,000–240,000 Americans.
  6. U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt: Captain of nuclear aircraft carrier docked in Guam pleaded with the U.S. Navy for more resources after more than 100 members of his crew tested positive.
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World coronavirus updates: UN warns of recession with "no parallel" to recent past

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens and confirmed plus presumptive cases from the CDC

The novel coronavirus pandemic is the "greatest test" the world has faced together since the formation of the United Nations just after the Second World War ended in 1945, UN chief António Guterres said Tuesday.

The big picture: COVID-19 cases surged past 856,000 and the death toll exceeded 42,000 Tuesday, per Johns Hopkins data. Italy reported more than 12,000 deaths.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 39 mins ago - Health

White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths

President Trump said at a press briefing on Tuesday that the next two weeks in the U.S. will be "very painful" and that he wants "every American to be prepared for the days that lie ahead," before giving way to Deborah Birx to explain the models informing the White House's new guidance on the coronavirus.

Why it matters: It's a somber new tone from the president that comes after his medical advisers showed him data projecting that the virus could kill 100,000–240,000 Americans — even with strict social distancing guidelines in place.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 2 hours ago - Health