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Presidential and vice presidential candidates Iván Duque and Martha Lucia Ramirez after winning the first round of presidential elections in Colombia on May 27, 2018. Photo: Gabriel Aponte/Vizzor Image via Getty Images

On June 17, Colombia will hold second-round presidential elections, after Iván Duque took a commanding lead over the leftist Gustavo Petro in the May 27 first round. According to surveys today, it looks like a runaway victory for Duque, who based his campaign largely on opposing the peace plan with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group, negotiated by current President Juan Manuel Santos.

Yes, but: To boil the election down to an up-or-down vote on Santos’ peace deal that ended a 50-year civil war is a mistake. First, the peace deal that Santos obsessively sought is likely a fait accompli, even with a Duque victory. And second, support for the top 3 first-round candidates suggests that voters have prioritized better services and more public transparency.

Duque is the protégé of former president Álvaro Uribe, who reinserted himself into politics after stepping down in 2010. Termed out under the constitution, Uribe supported Santos, his former defense minister, to succeed him, but took to social media shortly after leaving office to vehemently oppose Santos’ peace initiative.

While Uribe and Duque may rail against it, the Colombian Congress has approved the plan, more than 7,000 guerrillas have demobilized, and the processes of reintegration are in full swing and will be difficult to unwind. Though a Duque government could cut public programs supporting these efforts, most Colombians want to move on.

The big picture: In 2000, the U.S. initiated a partnership to help Colombia win back its territory and reduce narcotics trafficking, since investing $1 trillion in Plan Colombia and, under Obama, endorsing Santos’ peace efforts. Should he win, Duque (and his political patron) will have to adjust to a new round of citizen demands.

Christopher Sabatini is a lecturer at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and executive director of Global Americans.

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Vaccination rates are going up, people are going out to restaurants again — although the new COVID variant may get in the way — but they still aren't rushing back to the movies.

By the numbers: Some 49% of pre-pandemic moviegoers are no longer hitting theaters, according to a study from the film research company The Quorum, as reported by the New York Times.

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European countries are doubling down on pressure campaigns to get people vaccinated just as Republicans continue to wage war — often successfully — against vaccine mandates in the U.S.

Why it matters: The starkly different approaches create a sharp contrast between the regions' approaches to vaccination, even as the Omicron variant rapidly spreads around the world.

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Two years of COVID-19

Expand chart
Data: Our World in Data; Chart: Axios Visuals

Two years ago Wednesday, the first case of a mysterious new respiratory disease was discovered in Wuhan, China. Now, the Omicron variant has deepened concerns about just how much longer the coronavirus pandemic will last.

The big picture: More than 5 million people have died since that first case. Most people on earth have lived through some form of lockdown. 54% of the global population has had at least one vaccination, though the shots have been distributed unevenly.