Nov 15, 2018

The districts with college-educated women that voted Republicans out

Adapted from Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas; Graphic: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Here's a big part of the reason House Republicans lost the suburbs in the midterms: They were thrown out in 16 districts where at least 40% of the women have college degrees.

Why it matters: It means the gender gap and the education gap are combining into a huge demographic problem for Republicans. Per lobbyist Bruce Mehlman, who highlighted the shift in his slide deck on the midterms: "The new geography of Trump Era partisanship is turning suburban congressional districts into GOP killing fields, more than offsetting gerrymander gains by mobilizing intense opposition among college educated women, the beating heart of the suburbs."

Editor's note: This graphic has been updated to show that the California 45th district seat flipped to the Democrats. It has also been corrected to show that the Kansas 3rd district seat flipped to the Democrats and the Texas 21st and 3rd districts seats were won by the Republicans.

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The House Democrats supporting impeachment from districts Trump won

Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

So far, 28 of the 31 moderate Democrats who represent districts that President Trump won in 2016 have announced they will back Trump's impeachment on Wednesday, despite fears that their votes could put their seats at risk in 2020.

The big picture: Democratic members and committee staffers told Axios' Alayna Treene they expect four to six moderate Democrats to break ranks and vote against the articles.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Dec 18, 2019

Which Democrats voted against Trump's impeachment

Graphic: Danielle Alberti, Lazaro Gamio/Axios Visuals

Only two House Democrats crossed party lines to vote to oppose both articles of impeachment against President Trump on Wednesday. Both of them are feeling the pressure of representing swing districts Trump won in 2016.

Why it matters: Dissent was low as dozens of other Democrats who represent districts that Trump won sided with impeachment, either voting their conscience or calculating it could be even politically riskier to vote no.

Go deeperArrowDec 19, 2019

Rural America set to lose political power after 2020 census

Ottawa, Illinois, 2019. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

In most of the 10 states that will likely lose a House seat due to reapportionment beginning in 2022, current demographic trends are poised to shift political power from rural counties to metropolitan counties, according to an analysis by The Hill's Reid Wilson.

Why it matters: Census counts are crucial for determining political representation in the House, and minor changes in population can alter a state's power in Congress for a decade.

Go deeperArrowJan 5, 2020