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Expand chart
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global coffee prices staged a small rally at the end of May, rising by around 10% as they bounced off a 15-year low of $0.867 per pound.

Where it stands: That rally was short-lived and has since reversed, including a 6.2% fall for futures prices last Wednesday. Now coffee is again trading below $1 a pound, less than half the value it fetched 5 years ago, because of a flood of beans from leading producer Brazil, which is falling into recession and has seen its real currency weaken.

  • In an unusual market twist, the falling prices of coffee beans could lead to higher coffee prices for Western consumers.

What's happening: "Many growers around the world are having to abandon their farms or turn to illicit crops such as coca. This, in turn, is casting doubt over the future sustainability of supplies — and could, ultimately, prove costly for consumers," Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart and Emiko Terazono of the Financial Times write.

  • "Consumers might assume that at least part of any price increase for their morning cup of coffee is passed on to the farmer. But in an everyday £2.50 [$3.18] brew, the coffee itself accounts for just 4 per cent of the cost, or about 10p, while rent, labour and tax make up three-quarters of the overall price, according to consultancy firm Allegra Strategies."

The big picture: Coffee's downturn also is adding to the historic flow of migrants to the U.S. from Central America, another major coffee bean hub, the Washington Post's Kevin Sieff points out.

  • "Since 2017, most farmers have been operating at a loss, even as many sell their beans to some of the world’s best-known specialty-coffee brands.
  • "A staggering number of those farmers have decided to migrate."

Go deeper: The scientists saving coffee

Go deeper

Updated 5 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: Concerns grow over CDC's isolation guidelines — Experts warn of more COVID-19 variants after Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: America's vaccination drive runs out of gas — Puerto Rico expands booster shot requirements.
  3. Politics: Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Mark Milley tests positive for COVID-19 — Vivek Murthy calls SCOTUS vaccine mandate block "a setback for public health."
  4. Economy: Report: World's 10 richest men doubled wealth during pandemicAmerica's labor shortage is bigger than the pandemic.
  5. States: America struggles to keep schools open — Youngkin ends mandates for masks in schools and COVID vaccinations for state workers.
  6. World: Greece imposes vaccine mandate for people 60 and older — French parliament passes COVID vaccine passport legislation.
  7. Variant tracker

Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Mark Milley tests positive for COVID-19

Photo: Olivier Douliery - Pool/Getty Images

Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday.

State of play: Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler said in a statement that Milley — who is fully vaccinated and has received a booster shot — is experiencing "very minor symptoms" and is "working remotely and isolating himself."

Momentum builds to ban lawmakers from trading stocks

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Some progressive Democrats and MAGA Republicans are uniting on a proposal to ban sitting lawmakers from trading individual stocks, although it's unlikely that leadership will bring the bill up for a vote.

Why it matters: Members of Congress have great power to move stock prices, and great financial incentives to do so.