Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Landscape on the Greenland Ice Sheet near Kangerlussuaq. Photo: Martin Zwick/Reda&Co/UIG via Getty Images

Meeting the more stringent global temperature targets included in the Paris climate agreement would save countries trillions of dollars in economic output, outweighing the costs of reducing emissions, new research has found.

Why it matters: The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is the first to look at how global economic output would be affected under different amounts of global warming, providing policymakers with the "benefits" side of a cost-benefit analysis.

  • The study examines the historical tie between climate and economic output in 165 countries during the period from 1960 to 2010, and uses this to project future changes in economic development.

What they found: The study found that the more that the climate warms due to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the air, then the more that economic output in many countries would drop. Even some of the world's biggest economies — China, the U.S., and Japan — would be significantly affected if global average temperatures were to increase by two, three, or four degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels.

  • However, poorer countries located in the tropics would see the greatest economic losses if the world were to warm past the targets contained in the Paris agreement, which went into effect in 2016.
  • The study found that many countries in the tropics would see per capita economic output that would be 10% to 20% higher at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming through 2100.
  • Only a few countries might benefit from slightly greater amounts of warming, including Scandinavian nations along with Russia, Iceland, and Canada.

The bottom line: According to study co-author Marshall Burke, by the end of the century, the world would be about 3% wealthier if global warming were limited to the Paris agreement's more stringent temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as compared to 2 degrees.

"In dollar terms this represents about $30 trillion dollars in cumulative benefits if we meet the more ambitious 1.5 degree target ... Our analysis would suggest that the benefits of meeting the stringent targets vastly outweigh the costs,”
— Marshall Burke, economist at Stanford University, on a conference call with reporters
  • The study also looked at the consequences of hitting 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming, which is where the world is currently headed based on greenhouse gas emissions trends. “This will cost the globe an additional 5% to 10% of global GDP," Burke said. "Dollar-wise, that’s tens of trillions of dollars, so these are very large numbers.”
  • According to University of California at Berkeley researcher Solomon Hsiang, who was not involved in the new study, the new data provides an important new perspective. "It will cost substantial resources to transform the global energy system to be independent of fossil fuels. The analysis by Marshall and his team helps us understand whether the extra investments necessary to achieve a 1.5-degree goal are worth it," Hsiang told Axios.

Yes, but: There are considerable uncertainties associated with this study's projections. For example, a technological breakthrough could come along that would change the way society has historically responded to increasing temperatures.

  • “We cannot rule out unprecedented adaptation in the future. That is one of the inherent uncertainties in our paper,” Burke said.
  • On the other hand, Stanford climate scientist and study co-author Noah Diffenbaugh said the climate system could respond to higher levels of warming in unpredictable ways that cause even more damage, such as through the sudden, more rapid melting of ice sheets, which would trigger a sudden and damaging rise in sea levels. Climate scientists have long warned that the likelihood of such nasty surprises goes up along with global average temperatures.

Go deeper

House passes $768 billion defense spending bill

Photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The House approved a $768 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for the 2022 fiscal year in a bipartisan 316-113 vote on Thursday.

Why it matters: The annual bill, which authorizes Pentagon spending levels and guides policy for the department, would require women to register for the military draft, among other provisions.

5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Republicans’ secret lobbying

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

The five Senate Republicans who helped negotiate and draft the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill have been privately courting their Republican colleagues to pass the measure in the House.

Why it matters: House GOP leaders are actively urging their members to oppose the bill. The senators are working to undercut that effort as Monday shapes up as a do-or-die moment for the bipartisan bill.

CBC members nix border visit

A Haitian migrant carries a toddler on his shoulders today as he crosses the Rio Grande River. Photo: Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

Several members of the Congressional Black Caucus weighed visiting the U.S.-Mexico border this week to investigate the conditions faced by Haitian migrants and protest allegations of inhumane treatment by U.S. agents.

Why it matters: It's a thorny proposition both in terms of timing and messaging. Going assures a new wave of negative headlines for President Biden amid sinking popularity. And with congressional deadlines in the coming days over infrastructure, a possible government shutdown and debt-limit crisis, Democrats can't afford to lose any votes in the House.