Huawei's 5G-focused booth at the 2018 Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain. Photo: Xinhua/Guo Qiuda via Getty Images.
There's a race to 5G and the U.S. is not winning — China and South Korea are, according to a report conducted by research firm Analysys Mason and released today by CTIA, the wireless industry association.
Why it matters: The first country to deploy and commercialize the ultra-fast 5G mobile networks will have an enormous economic advantage— $500 billion in GDP and 3 million U.S. jobs, per a 2017 Accenture study.
How it works: 5G networks require a combination of low-, mid- and high-frequency airwaves to provide faster data speeds with lower lag time. A big infrastructure upgrade is needed: Networks will need a lot of new radio frequencies (allocated by governments) that will be transmitted by hundreds of thousands of new small antennas.
How the countries stack up: China is in the lead, followed by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. Germany, the U.K. and France are in the second tier of countries in terms of readiness.
China: Its 5-year plan aims for broad commercial 5G launch by 2020, and all the major wireless providers (like Huawei and ZTE) have conducted extensive 5G trials. The government has aggressively opened up significant amounts of mid- and high-band spectrum. Data from CCS Insight suggests the large Chinese market is expected to be the biggest for 5G by 2022, CNBC reported.
South Korea: This year's Winter Olympics provided a focal point for early investment and trials by the wireless companies. The government has freed up large swaths of airwaves.
U.S.: All major wireless companies have started trials of 5G technologies and equipment, with many commercial launches planned by the end of this year. The FCC is holding a high-band spectrum auction in November, but there's not a clear pipeline for mid-band spectrum. 16 states have enacted small cell legislation.
Japan: Wireless companies are focused on widespread deployment ahead of the 2020 Olympics. The government adopted a 5G roadmap in 2016 and committed to releasing more spectrum by early next year.
Moving fast: The global competition is propelling 5G development much faster than was originally expected, with carriers and some cities moving quickly to install infrastructure, said CTIA president and CEO Meredith Attwell Baker, a former FCC commissioner.
Winners: Europe won the 2G race and Japan led the 3G race. The U.S. led in 4G, resulting in $100 billion in GDP by 2016, CTIA said.
"We won the race to 4G and that meant that the semiconductor, operating systems and app industries were all here," she said. "All those benefits to the economy are going to be even greater in 5G but we have to make sure we don’t export it.”
China threat: The Trump administration is well aware of the threat of China.
Last month, it blocked Broadcom's proposed buyout of Qualcomm on national security grounds. There were also fears that Broadcom's business practices would weaken Qualcomm's and the U.S.'s 5G position — allowing China's Huawei a bigger advantage.
The administration also briefly toyed with the idea of nationalizing part of the U.S. wireless airwaves in an attempt to thwart Chinese advances.
French President Emmanuel Macron said at a remarkably candid postgame for a small group of reporters last evening that his State Visit left him convinced President Trump will withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran, and that the U.S. president wants to create "a series of new Trump's deals."
His big takeaway: "[Y]our president is a dealmaker. You always have to understand the rationale of your counterpoint. He's a dealmaker. So he wants to find a deal and he wants to find a deal under his condition."
"I think his experience with North Korea is that when you are very tough, you make the other side [move] and you can try to go to a good deal or a better deal. ... [S]o that's a strategy of an increasing tension."
At their White House press conference on Wednesday, Macron said he wanted "to work on a new deal with Iran," and Trump signaled openness.
Macron: "Nobody is a magician and will fix the situation overnight."
Why it matters: The "Trump's deals" concept — perhaps eventually covering Iran, climate and North Korea — echoes the U.S. president's vow on trade, where he wants to renegotiate big agreements on "America First" terms.
Hours after addressing Congress — and after two dinners, a press conference and several meetings with Trump — Macron sat down with a dozen or so journalists on couches in the George Washington University student center.
The 40-year-old president shook hands with each of the columnists and reporters on the way in, as scores of students craned for a glimpse behind barriers outside.
Macron began the 45-minute session, all in English, with: "So, I'm yours!"
Macron and Trump had such playful, touchy-feely interactions for cameras that a New York Times headline called it "Le Bromance."
But with the reporters, Macron was mostly clinical, saying about the aftermath of a U.S. withdrawal from Iran deal: "I want to be the honest broker of the situation."
Macron spoke with a clarity that's rare for an on-the-record meeting with a world leader, where diplomatic fog is more the norm. In that way, Macron was Trump-like: He just said what he thought.
Macron thinks Trump will get out of the Obama-era deal with Iran by a May 12 deadline "for domestic reasons":
"That's my view. I don't have any specific information. I'm not an insider. But my view is that there is a big risk he will leave."
"I tried to follow which kind of rationality he can respect. ... Your president made very strong statements to say this is an awful agreement, and so on and so on. We pushed. I tried to convince. I did my best."
"[W]hen a lot of people say President Trump is not predictable, I think exactly the opposite. He's very predictable. Look at the campaign commitment."
"[H]e repeated in his office ... [that it's] the worst deal ever, it's a nightmare, it was a catastrophe and so on."
When a columnist asked if Trump will have a "much more difficult time persuading North Korea to accept a deal if he does not honor the Iran deal," Macron replied:
"I agree with that. I used the same argument."
Be smart ... Macron had this take on U.S. vacillation on international agreements, including the Iran deal and the Paris climate accord: "It can work [in] the short term, but it's very insane [in] the mid- to long-term."
How it's playing ...WashPost above-the-fold headline: "Macron charms Congress in speech" ... L.A. Times A1 tease: "Macron challenges Trumpism."
