Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Chevron's deal to snap up Noble Energy could usher in more oil-patch mergers, but it's hardly a sure bet.

Driving the news: The all-stock deal announced on Monday is the first big takeover during the pandemic-fueled oil bust.

  • But Chevron was on the hunt even before the crisis, and analysts are uncertain how many more deals are in the offing.

What they're saying: "This could certainly ignite a wave of additional consolidation, although that is by no means certain," Enverus analyst Andrew Dittmar said in a note.

  • He points out that M&As were already slow heading into the pandemic, but that the crisis has also created openings — if the stars align.
  • “This deal lays out the blueprint for what post-COVID consolidation will likely need to look like with all-stock consideration, a moderate premium, and asset fit and synergies that are an easy and natural story to tell investors," he said.

The intrigue: Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov tells me that "in the middle of a painful commodity down cycle, even the most liquid, stable companies are not automatically on the lookout for large-scale acquisitions."

  • "We need to be mindful of pressures on balance sheets from low commodity prices as well as dividends. No management team would want to jeopardize its balance sheet due to an ill-timed purchase," Molchanov said.

Yes, but: “In a downturn like this, the strong get stronger and the weaker players try to survive as best they can, and some will be bought," Duane Dickson, a top Deloitte energy analyst, tells The New York Times.

  • “There will be some bankruptcies and mergers and acquisitions like you saw today and I would expect that will continue and potentially pick up speed."

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Aug 3, 2020 - Economy & Business

Marathon to sell Speedway gas stations to 7-Eleven for $21 billion

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Refining giant Marathon Petroleum Corp. announced late Sunday that it's selling its Speedway retail gasoline stations and convenience stores to 7-Eleven, Inc. in a $21 billion cash deal.

Why it matters: It's the year's biggest energy deal thus far, the Wall Street Journal notes.

Updated 29 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Supreme Court blocks Alabama curbside voting measure

Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Wednesday evening blocked a lower court order that would have allowed voters to cast ballots curbside at Alabama polling places on Election Day.

Whit it matters: With less than two weeks until Election Day, the justices voted 5-3 to reinstate the curbside voting ban and overturn a lower court judge's ruling designed to protect people with disabilities during the coronavirus pandemic.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Senate Democrats block vote on McConnell's targeted COVID relief bill McConnell urges White House not to strike stimulus deal before election.
  2. Economy: Why the stimulus delay isn't a crisis (yet).
  3. Health: New York reports most COVID cases since MayStudies show drop in coronavirus death rate — The next wave is gaining steam.
  4. Education: Schools haven't become hotspots — San Francisco public schools likely won't reopen before the end of the year.
  5. World: Spain becomes first nation in Western Europe to exceed 1 million cases.