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Data: Business Roundtable; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

A closely-watched CEO economic confidence index rose for the first time after declining for nine straight quarters, according to a survey of 150 chief executives of the biggest U.S. companies by trade group Business Roundtable.

Why it matters: The index, which still remains at a decade low, reflects corporate America's expectations for sales, hiring and spending — which plummeted amid uncertainty when the pandemic hit.

  • CEOs believe economic conditions won't get worse than earlier this year, though the Business Roundtable warns 0f looming economic damage without another stimulus package.
  • A new stimulus round looks increasingly unlikely in the short-term, given the looming Senate fight over Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's replacement.

The state of play: The index jumped nearly 30 points to 64.

  • For context, the series rose to its highest level ever of 118 in Q1 2018 — reflecting optimism about the Trump tax cuts.
  • It's fallen every single quarter since as the U.S.-China trade war rocked CEO confidence and economic optimism plummeted.

By the numbers: CEO expectations for hiring, sales growth and spending on things like new buildings and equipment improved in Q3 — but remain below the survey's historical average.

  • Only 21% of CEOs say sales will decrease within the next six months, while nearly double said the same last quarter. 57% expect sales to increase, versus 45% last quarter.
  • A slightly larger share of CEOs expect employment to fall at their companies within the next six months (34%) than those that expect to increase hiring (31%). In Q2, 22% said hiring would increase, while 46% expected hiring to decrease.

The Business Roundtable index adds to evidence that CEO confidence in the economy is bouncing back after a crushing decline when the pandemic hit, even as the economy continues to struggle and the virus is still raging. The fate of smaller businesses across the country is much more dire.

  • Most CEOs (40%) said business conditions will return to pre-COVID levels next year, while 36% believe their companies will recover in 2022 or later.
  • Nearly a quarter said business never declined, recovered already or will do so by the year's end.

The big picture: CEOs said the economy would shrink by 2.4% this year — a more optimistic estimate than the 3.8% contraction they projected in Q2.

What they're saying: "Further major support from the federal government is necessary to prevent economic recovery from being derailed," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said in a statement.

  • Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, who chairs the group, said the Trump administration and Congress should "come back to the negotiation table and pass more legislation to further ease economic challenges" for workers and small businesses.

Go deeper: Consumer confidence drops as CEO confidence picks up amid the pandemic

Go deeper

The new small business lifeline: digital tools

Businesses leaders confirmed one fact about our shared new normal at the first of three Google virtual Small Business Matters Roundtable events on Thursday, Sept. 14: COVID-19 has made it essential for small businesses to digitize their operations once and for all.

Why it’s important: 93% of U.S. small businesses to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) felt an immediate downturn in customer demand, hours of operation and employee headcounts, a newly published Connected Commerce Council (3C) report in partnership with Google found.

Updated Dec 22, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Airlines to recall 32,000 employees with fresh aid from Congress

An American Airlines agent checks in travelers during the Covid-19 pandemic at Los Angeles International Airport. Photo: Patrick Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

American Airlines and United Airlines are expected to recall some 32,000 workers furloughed in October after Congress approved a new round of federal aid, as expected.

Why it matters: Airline workers again scored a special carve-out in Congress' latest coronavirus relief package by arguing that aviation — and the role airlines will play in delivering COVID-19 vaccines — is essential to the U.S. and its economy.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
14 mins ago - Energy & Environment

Carbon emissions are roaring back from COVID-19

Expand chart
Data: IEA Global Energy Review 2021; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global energy-related carbon emissions will surge this year as coal, oil and natural gas consumption return from the pandemic that caused an unprecedented emissions decline, the International Energy Agency estimated Tuesday.

Why it matters: The projected rise of nearly 5% would be the largest since the "carbon intensive" recovery from the financial crisis over a decade ago, IEA said, putting emissions just below their 2019 peak.