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Investors still think a trade war is the top risk for stocks, but normalized central bank policy is now a close second, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest survey of over 200 global fund managers.
Investors are uneasy about a global end to quantitative easing — or central banks’ use of bond purchases to push down rates — even though both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still buying (despite slowing down).
- Notably, this survey was conducted during the stock market's two-day rout, which was widely believed to be sparked by fears of Fed hawkishness.
Other survey findings:
- Fears about a China slowdown moderated in October. "European populism" was the fourth biggest risk, according to those surveyed.
- 85% of those surveyed said the global economy is in its "late cycle," the most since December 2007.
- 35% of respondents think corporate earnings won't improve by 10% or more in the next year, but back in February 35% said they did expect earnings to improve by that amount.