Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Photo: John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The national deficit is forecast to increase sharply to $3.7 trillion in the 2020 fiscal year, according to a Congressional Budget Office projection out Friday.

By the numbers: The report paints a grim picture of the U.S. economy in the second quarter of 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to average roughly 14% in that time, while GDP is projected to decline by about 12%. Interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes are expected to average around 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.

  • The report projects a 15% average unemployment rate during both the second and third quarters of 2020.

Why it matters: The numbers quantify the scale of the measures Congress has taken to address the coronavirus pandemic. In March, before Congress enacted most of its legislation to address the outbreak, the CBO projected $1 trillion deficits for both 2020 and 2021.

  • In fiscal year 2021, the new projection has the deficit at $2.1 trillion.
  • The CBO projects publicly held federal debt to be 101% of GDP by the end of the fiscal year.
  • It also anticipates the deficit will be 17.9% of national GDP this year, and 9.8% of GDP in 2021 — compared to 4.6% in 2019.

Go deeper

Coronavirus pandemic pushes U.S. economy to worst-ever contraction

Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized 32.9% rate in the second quarter — the worst-ever contraction on records that date back to 1947, the government said on Thursday.

Why it matters: Widespread lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic ravaged the economy in a way that's never been seen in modern times, and hope for a swift recovery has been dashed as cases have surged nationwide.

Pandemic wipes out 5 years of economic growth in 3 months

The economic decline between April and June caused by the coronavirus pandemic brought the U.S. GDP back to levels last seen in 2015, according to data released Thursday.

Why it matters: While we fell into the hole swiftly, economists are dashing hopes of an equally swift recovery. They warn it could take years for the U.S. to recover.

Ina Fried, author of Login
Jul 31, 2020 - Technology

Big Tech's take grows as economy tanks

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

While the rest of the U.S. economy was falling off a cliff, Big Tech saw its business soar.

The big picture: Thursday morning, government economists reported a 30% drop in GDP for the second quarter — the largest decline, by far, since the numbers have been reported.