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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

The most ambitious Paris temperature target could nearly be met if only the Group of 20 largest economies were to slash emissions by 2030, on the way to net-zero by 2050, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Ahead of the November UN Climate Summit, pressure is mounting on G20 leaders to crack down further on emissions in order to stave off some of the worst ravages of global warming.

Details: The report, from the World Resources Institute and Climate Analytics, finds that assuming current emissions pledges, plus net-zero commitments, are met, the world is on course to seeing 2.4°C (4.32°F) of warming compared to preindustrial levels by 2100.

  • New pledges not yet formalized would get the world down to 2.1°C (3.78°F) of warming.
  • The Paris target is 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100.

Threat level: If major progress is not made to cut emissions this decade, countries would have to curtail them so significantly between 2030 and 2050 that it would be nearly impossible to do in practice.

Yes, but: "Targets" and emissions "pledges" are not the same as policy, and the G20 countries are coming under added pressure to translate the former into the latter.

Of note: The report finds that many G20 countries have not yet announced accelerated emissions reductions. Some have presented marginally more aggressive cuts compared to earlier plans or weakened their prior commitments.

  • Some have not formally agreed to net-zero emissions targets at all.

What they’re saying: “We are never going to address the climate crisis if G20 countries don't step up to the plate,” said Taryn Fransen, senior fellow at WRI, in a statement.

  • She added that the lack of aggressive climate plans from several major economies “should be setting off alarm bells in capitals across the globe.”

Go deeper

John Kerry plays down COP26, knocks Congress over climate legislation

John Kerry. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry says COP26 may not get all the results he has been working toward, in part because Congress has yet to act on President Biden's ambitious climate agenda.

Driving the news: In an interview with the AP, Kerry says the negotiations in Glasgow, Scotland, may fall short of securing commitments from major emitters to stop burning coal and commit to aggressive near-term emissions cuts.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
1 hour ago - Energy & Environment

Key clean power provision likely won't survive in Dems' spending bill

A construction worker walks along a dirt road at the Avangrid Renewables La Joya wind farm in Encino, New Mexico, on Aug. 5, 2020. Photo: Cate Dingley/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A pillar of Democrats' plans to speed deployment of zero-carbon electricity is likely to be cut from major spending and tax legislation they are struggling to move on a party-line vote, per multiple reports and a Capitol Hill aide.

Driving the news: The New York Times, citing anonymous congressional aides and lobbyists, reports that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has told the White House he "strongly opposes" the Clean Electricity Performance Program.

Updated 4 hours ago - World

Fatal stabbing of British MP David Amess declared a terrorist incident

Police outside Belfairs Methodist Church in Leigh-on-Sea, England, on Oct. 15. Photo: John Keeble/Getty Images

Authorities have declared the death of David Amess a terrorist incident, hours after the Conservative Party lawmaker in the U.K. was fatally stabbed while meeting with local constituents in a church in eastern England on Friday.

The big picture: The Metropolitan Police has found "a potential motivation linked to Islamist extremism."