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Data: FactSet; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

The two-year Treasury yield is spiking to levels not seen since before 2008, and U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are hitting levels not seen in more than five years, having climbed steadily since September.

Why it matters: The second-longest economic expansion in U.S. history (and longest job-market expansion) shows no signs of slowing, and that has investors driving up bond yields as the Fed continues its plan to gradually raise interest rates.

  • The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note has steadily risen for the past few years, since the Fed laid out a path to finally "normalize" rates from virtually zero in 2008.

Driving the news: In remarks on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates are nowhere near the neutral level that doesn't speed up or slow down economic growth. That comment was a departure from what analysts assumed when the Fed removed the word "accommodative" from its policy statement last week, so faster rate increases are expected.

  • In a separate speech this week, Powell said the Fed's projections of a continued strengthening economy is not "too good to be true."

What to watch: Friday's jobs report is key, especially if wage growth is stronger than economists are expecting (spurring inflation fears, which the Fed has said it's watching closely). Kathy Jones, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, told Axios yields will push even higher, should the job report come in better than the expected 185,000 new jobs.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 19,705,715 — Total deaths: 727,984 — Total recoveries — 11,963,915Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 5,022,187 — Total deaths: 162,696 — Total recoveries: 1,643,118 — Total tests: 61,080,587Map.
  3. Politics: Pelosi says states don't have the funds to comply with Trump's executive order on employment — Mnuchin says Trump executive orders were cleared by Justice Department.
  4. Public health: Ex-FDA head: U.S. will "definitely" see 200,000 to 300,000 virus deaths by end of 2020 — Fauci says chances are "not great" that COVID-19 vaccine will be 98% effective.
  5. Schools: Nine test positive at Georgia school where photo showing packed hallway went viral — How back-to-school is playing out in the South as coronavirus rages on.

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The big picture: National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director William Evanina said in a statement Friday that the Russian government is "using a range of measures" to "denigrate" Joe Biden ahead of the election. China and Iran would prefer that Trump is defeated, according to Evanina.

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