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Expand chart
Data: FactSet; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

The two-year Treasury yield is spiking to levels not seen since before 2008, and U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are hitting levels not seen in more than five years, having climbed steadily since September.

Why it matters: The second-longest economic expansion in U.S. history (and longest job-market expansion) shows no signs of slowing, and that has investors driving up bond yields as the Fed continues its plan to gradually raise interest rates.

  • The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note has steadily risen for the past few years, since the Fed laid out a path to finally "normalize" rates from virtually zero in 2008.

Driving the news: In remarks on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates are nowhere near the neutral level that doesn't speed up or slow down economic growth. That comment was a departure from what analysts assumed when the Fed removed the word "accommodative" from its policy statement last week, so faster rate increases are expected.

  • In a separate speech this week, Powell said the Fed's projections of a continued strengthening economy is not "too good to be true."

What to watch: Friday's jobs report is key, especially if wage growth is stronger than economists are expecting (spurring inflation fears, which the Fed has said it's watching closely). Kathy Jones, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, told Axios yields will push even higher, should the job report come in better than the expected 185,000 new jobs.

Go deeper

45 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden's latest executive order: Buy American

President Joe R. Biden speaks about the economy before signing executive orders in the State Dining Room at the White House on Friday, Jan 22, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

President Joe Biden will continue his flurry of executive orders on Monday, signing a new directive to require the federal government to “buy American” for products and services.

Why it matters: The executive action is yet another attempt by Biden to accomplish goals administratively without waiting for the backing of Congress. The new order echoes Biden's $400 billion campaign pledge to increase government purchases of American goods.

Tech digs in for long domestic terror fight

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

With domestic extremist networks scrambling to regroup online, experts fear the next attack could come from a radicalized individual — much harder than coordinated mass events for law enforcement and platforms to detect or deter.

The big picture: Companies like Facebook and Twitter stepped up enforcement and their conversations with law enforcement ahead of Inauguration Day. But they'll be tested as the threat rises that impatient lone-wolf attackers will lash out.

The pandemic could be worsening childhood obesity

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The 10-month long school closures and the coronavirus pandemic are expected to have a big impact on childhood obesity rates.

Why it matters: About one in five children are obese in the U.S. — an all-time high — with worsening obesity rates across income and racial and ethnic groups, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey show.

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