Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazilian presidential candidate for the Social Liberal Party. Photo: Dario Oliveira/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right candidate for Brazil’s presidency, is heading into this weekend’s runoff elections with a 14-point lead over his competitor, Fernando Haddad, after garnering a 46% plurality in the first round three weeks ago. Although Bolsonaro has drawn comparisons to a wide range of populist figures, including President Trump, he may have the most in common with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

The big picture: The two come from different ideological backgrounds — Bolsonaro a conservative former army captain, Duterte a professed socialist and champion of some liberal social programs. But they share an authoritarian, populist style that promises tough action, simple solutions to complex problems, and a strongman’s determination to fight crime and right the economy — ignoring democratic norms if needed.

The background: Brazil and the Philippines were both autocracies in the mid-1980s. But Duterte and Bolsonaro emerged in relatively abnormal circumstances in their countries’ modern histories, capitalizing on weak political parties and positioning themselves as outsiders who can bring radical change when elites and democracy itself have lost public trust.

  • In the Philippines, despite strong growth under Duterte’s predecessor, inequality remained high and state institutions fragile or nonexistent, infuriating working- and middle-class Filipinos.
  • In Brazil, a massive spike in violent crime, a record-high murder rate, graft, and an economic downturn led to a curdling of popular support for mainstream parties and candidates, paving the way for Bolsonaro’s breakthrough.

Both men have appealed to citizens with promises of extreme responses to crime and corruption and, in Duterte’s case, action:

  • Duterte has waged a “war” on drugs, condoning widespread extrajudicial killings of drug traffickers, drug users and many people without any drug connection at all.
  • Bolsonaro has pledged to give the Brazilian police, already some of the most militarized in South America, freer rein to shoot at suspects and has at least hinted at approving Duterte-style killings while waxing nostalgic about Brazil’s dictatorship.

More than leaders in Poland and Hungary, Bolsonaro and Duterte thrive on brutal and misogynistic rhetoric, such as rape jokes, and remain largely invulnerable to public outrage against norm-breaking.

What’s next: Like Duterte, Bolsonaro will probably try to assume vast power from day one if he wins. And since scandal and offensive rhetoric fail to dent his public image, his opponents will have all the more trouble combating him.

Joshua Kurlantzick is Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Go deeper: This piece first appeared in earlier form as "Bolsonaro Ascendant" (I and II) at cfr.org.

Go deeper

CCP releases two jailed Canadians after Huawei CFO deal with DOJ

Photo: Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Two Canadians imprisoned by the Chinese government for over 1,000 days have been released and are expected to arrive in Canada on Saturday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday.

Why it matters: Their release comes hours after Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wanzhou reached a deal with the U.S. Department of Justice that resolves the criminal charges against her and could pave the way for her to return to China.

Updated 22 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Arizona GOP's private recount of 2020 election confirms Biden's win

Contractors working on behalf of the GOP examine and recount 2020 ballots at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix in May. Photo: Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images

In an odd coda to the 2020 election, private contractors conducting a GOP-commissioned recount in Arizona confirmed President Biden’s win in Maricopa County.

Why it matters: The unofficial, party-driven recount has been heavily covered on cable news as part of former President Trump's continued effort to sow doubt about the election result.

Del Rio bridge camp empty following Haitian migrant surge

A boy bathes himself in a jug of water inside a migrant camp at the U.S.-Mexico border on Sept. 21 in Del Rio, Texas. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images

The last migrants camping under the Del Rio International Bridge, which connects Texas and Mexico, departed on Friday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced during a White House press briefing.

Driving the news: Thousands of migrants, mostly from Haiti, had arrived to the makeshift camp after crossing the southern border seeking asylum. Roughly 1,800 migrants will now head to U.S. Customs and Border Protection processing centers.