Charlie Neibergall / AP; Claude Paris / AP

Ben Tulchin, Bernie Sanders' campaign pollster, says that there's a path for far-right populist Marine Le Pen to close the double-digit polling gap with frontrunner Emmanuel Macron in Sunday's French presidential runoff.

How? Overall turnout has to be far lower than average at 72% — historically, it's been at or slightly above 80% — and voters who favor Le Pen would need to turn out at a sky-high 88% compared to 61% for Macron supporters.

Can it happen? Tulchin's scenario for a Le Pen win requires a lot of "ifs" and breaks from historical convention in French elections. Then again, Macron and Le Pen's showdown in the runoff is itself huge break from historical convention. So while this outcome is unlikely, it's certainly not inconceivable.

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Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 19,193,661 — Total deaths: 716,735 — Total recoveries — 11,611,029Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 4,918,927 — Total deaths: 160,737 — Total recoveries: 1,598,624 — Total tests: 59,652,675Map.
  3. Politics: White House recommends Trump issue executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Education: Cuomo says all New York schools can reopen for in-person learning.
  5. Public health: Surgeon general urges flu shots to prevent "double whammy" with coronavirus — Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.

Trump: "We are going a different way" on coronavirus aid

President Trump. Photo: Jim Watsonn/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump tweeted on Friday that his administration is "going a different way" with coronavirus aid after negotiations with congressional Democrats stalled again, suggesting he will use an executive order to address stimulus spending.

What he's saying: "Pelosi and Schumer only interested in Bailout Money for poorly run Democrat cities and states. Nothing to do with China Virus! Want one trillion dollars. No interest. We are going a different way!" Trump tweeted.

Trump's swift, sweeping China offensive

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Trump's rhetoric on China has tended to run hotter than his actions — until now.

Why it matters: Even at the height of Trump's trade war, his administration never hit China as hard, as fast, and on as many fronts as it is right now.