Dec 5, 2019

Bernie Sanders surges in California primary poll

Bernie Sanders. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has surged in a new California poll at the expense of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey published by the Los Angeles Times on Thursday.

The big picture: Warren's lead in September in the same poll dropped by 7 points to 22%, meaning she is statistically tied with — but nominally behind — Sanders, who sits at 24%. Biden also dipped by 6 points to 14%, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 12%.

Why it matters: California will have the most delegates at next summer's Democratic nominating convention.

Where it stands:

  • Bernie Sanders: 24%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 22%
  • Joe Biden: 14%
  • Pete Buttigieg: 12%
  • Kamala Harris: 7% (Dropped out)

Of note: The poll was conducted before California Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the 2020 race, but the survey asked respondents to name their second-choice candidates. If the votes of those who preferred Harris were reallocated based on those responses, Sanders would have 25%, followed by Warren at 24%; Biden, 17% and Buttigieg, 13%.

Methodology: The poll was conducted Nov. 21-27 from a representative sample of 1,694 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

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Top 4 Democrats way ahead of 2020 rivals in 2 polls, but Warren slips

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders at the Nov. 20 Democratic presidential debate in Atlanta. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Two polls published Tuesday show a clear gap at the top of the Democratic presidential race, with only the four leading candidates achieving double digits. But Sen. Elizabeth Warren's numbers slipped in both.

By the numbers: Former Vice President Joe Biden has retaken the lead in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, with 24% of Democratic and independent voters who lean Democratic backing him. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg jumped 6 points to snatch second place (16%). Warren's numbers fell 50% over the past month to receive 14% support. Sen. Bernie Sanders polled at 13%.

Go deeperArrowNov 27, 2019

Buttigieg with 9-point lead in new Iowa poll

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Presidential hopeful and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has soared to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 2020 Democratic candidates, released Saturday evening.

The big picture: He's the first choice for 25% of Democratic caucus-goers polled in the latest survey — with a 9-point lead over his closest rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Buttigieg also topped a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, where he's the favored candidate among 22% of those surveyed.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Nov 17, 2019

Bernie Sanders becomes top candidate for college students

Data: College Reaction; Note: *Kamala Harris dropped out Dec. 3, results have a ±3.1 margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Over the last two months, Bernie Sanders has overtaken Elizabeth Warren as the top 2020 Democratic candidate among college students, according to a new College Reaction/Axios poll.

The big picture: Warren's recent decline among college students mirrors polling of the general population, but while Pete Buttigieg has been gaining among all voters during that time, Sanders is the one who's gained the most among students.

Go deeperArrowDec 5, 2019