Here's the good news for dealmakers: 2026 so far has gone gangbusters, in line with consensus optimism.

Here's the bad news for dealmakers: There are more warning signs than there were drunk teenagers at the St. Patrick's Day parade in Boston.

By the numbers: Global dealmaking volume is up 41% year-over-year, according to LSEG.

• U.S. deals are even better, climbing 80%. Private equity-backed deals are up a whopping 174% (global) and 264% (U.S.).
• The increases have been driven by mega-deals, with consolidation begetting more consolidation.

Yes, but: There's some slowdown within those boffo numbers.

• March year-to-date for U.S. deal volume is down 19%, while the number of U.S. deals is off 61%

The big picture: Uncertainty has returned with a vengeance. It's not necessarily stopping deals, but it's certainly slowing them.

• Pick your poison: The Iran war, which is heating up inflation and cooling off Middle East money flows. Private credit concerns, which at some point could become a crunch. The Fed not yet cutting rates, as had been expected coming into the year. Ongoing concerns about an AI valuation bubble, even though public equity indexes are in the red for 2026.

Zoom in: The IPO market, which has ground to a virtual halt, may be the canary in the coalmine for broader dealmaking.

The bottom line: This is the second straight spring that animal spirits have been dashed by the White House — last year was "Liberation Day" tariffs, this year Iran. And it may prove to just be a momentum blip, rather than a momentum killer.

• What we know for sure, however, is that dealmaker confidence is now shaded by concern.

Autoscience, a Silicon Valley developer of an automated AI research lab, raised $14 million in seed funding led by General Catalyst.

Why it's the BFD: This is an AI model designed to build other AI models, suggesting that not even AI engineers will be safe from labor disruptions.

Zoom in: Autoscience is still very young with a tiny team, but already claims to have produced a peer-reviewed research paper with limited human involvement.

• The goal is to keep spin up specialized models in virtually any research field, including life sciences.

Other investors include Toyota Ventures, Perplexity Fund, and MaC Ventures.

The bottom line: "Just like how AI systems have become very good at competitive chess and competitive programming, we are building AI systems that are very good at building other machine learning models. We expect that, just like in those fields, these systems are going to become better than humans at doing that." — Eliot Cowan, Autoscience's co-founder and CEO, to Axios

• SyberJet, a Phoenix-based jet startup led by Nikola founder Trevor Milton, is seeking to raise $1b at a $4b valuation, per the WSJ. axios.link/3Nexnkt

• Cloaked, a consumer-focused privacy platform, raised $375m. General Catalyst and Liberty City Ventures led, joined by Lux Capital, Human Capital, Marquee Ventures, Fifth Growth Fund, NFL Players Association, LG Technology Ventures, Assurant Ventures, and DuckDuckGo. axios.link/4uBhFR0

• RedotPay, a Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments startup, is in talks to raise up to $150m, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4rHk2iJ

🚑 Latent Health, a startup automating pharmacy workflows, raised $80 million in Series A funding at a $600m valuation. Spark Capital and Transformation Capital led, joined by Conviction, McKesson Ventures, General Catalyst and Y Combinator participated. Axios Pro flashback

🚑 Crossbow Therapeutics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of cancer immunotherapies, raised $77m in Series B funding. Taiho Ventures and Arkin Bio Capital led, joined by Sixty Degree Capital, Hamilton Square Partners Management, LifeLink Ventures, Libbs Ventures, Blood Cancer United and insiders MPM BioImpact, Pfizer Ventures, BVF Partners, Polaris Partners, Eli Lilly, and Mirae Asset Venture Investment. axios.link/4rDYMu4

• Arc, an LA-based maker of electric boats, raised $50m in Series C funding from Eclipse, a16z, Menlo Ventures, Lowercarbon, Necessary Ventures, and Offline Ventures. arcboats.com

• Deeptune, a developer of "training gyms" for AI agents, raised $43m in Series A funding. A16z led, joined by 776, Abstract Ventures, and Inspired Capital. axios.link/47CFdLy

• RunSybil, an AI cybersecurity startup, raised $40m. Khosla Ventures led, joined by S32, Anthropic's Anthology Fund, Menlo Ventures, Conviction, and Elad Gil. axios.link/4bwNPnY

• Posh, an events platform, raised $37m in Series B funding, per Fortune. FirstMark led, joined by Causeway Ventures, Goodwater Capital, Companyon Ventures, and Epic Ventures. axios.link/4sm2CcH

• BusRight, an NYC-based student transportation startup, raised $30m led by Volition Capital. axios.link/3NLwDU0

⚡ Claros, focused on reducing data center energy loss, raised $30m in seed funding, per Axios Pro. General Catalyst and Red Cell Partners led, joined by Systemiq Capital, Aero X Ventures, and Trenches Capital. axios.link/474mBE8

• Edra, an NYC workflow automation startup, raised $30m in Series A funding. Sequoia Capital led, joined by A* and 8VC. axios.link/3NPip4x

• Corridor, an AI coding security startup, raised $25m in Series A funding at a $200m post-money valuation. Felicis led, joined by Conviction, Timeless, Artisanal Ventures, Lux Capital, Sunflower Capital, Datadog, and SV Angel. axios.link/3Pfifnw

• Eclypsium, a Portland, Ore.-based IT infrastructure supply chain security startup, raised $25m. Peak6 Strategic Capital led, joined by Ten Eleven Ventures and an undisclosed bank. eclypsium.com

🚑 Parallel, a French developer of AI agents for hospitals, raised $20m in Series A funding. Index Ventures led, joined by Frst, YC, and Hexa. axios.link/4svfywA

• Raven.io, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based application security startup, raised $20m. Norwest and Elron Ventures led, joined by RedSeed, UpWest, SentinelOne, Jibe Ventures, Dnipro VC, CyberFuture, and Unusual Ventures. axios.link/4bP9lWp

• Kewazo, a German developer of automated lifts for construction and industrial sites, raised $16m in Series A extension funding, per Axios Pro. Schooner Capital led, joined by Chevron Technology Ventures, Asahi Kasei, Benson Capital, Mana Ventures, Gaingels, Atlas Ventures, True Ventures and Cybernetix Ventures. axios.link/40GFnxC

• Sequen, an NYC-based provider of in-session personalization solutions, raised $16m in Series A funding led by White Star Capital and Threshold Ventures, with Greycroft participating. axios.link/4sknsJt

• GlobalComix, an NYC-based digital comics publishing platform, raised $13m led by SBI US Gateway Fund and Point72 Ventures. axios.link/4sTOKWG

🪦 Meadow, an NYC-based online funeral planning startup, raised $9m in a Series A round led by Lachy Groom and Haystack. axios.link/41aCdCr

🚑 Carecubes, an Arlington, Va.-based developer of isolation units for responding to infectious disease, raised $6.5m in Series A funding from Schooner Capital, Lifeforce Capital, and CQuence Health. axios.link/41duHqm

• Reson8, a Dutch automatic speech recognition startup, raised €5m in pre-seed funding led by Balderton Capital, with NP Hard participating. reson8.dev

• Ringtime, a Belgian AI platform for blue-collar hiring, raised €1.8m in seed funding led by Volta Ventures, with Syndicate One, JK Invest, New School VC and Allusion participating. axios.link/47co4rT

🎱 Aldine invested in The Rack Group, a maker and online retailer of billiards equipment. axios.link/3Pv6IjX

• Bain Capital made a growth investment in Duravent, a Detroit-based provider of venting and air movement solutions. axios.link/4lAKsRH

Fort Point Capital acquired Boston Green, a provider of environmental services like waste disposal and emergency response. axios.link/4srAncE

• Franchise FastLane, a Southfield Capital portfolio company, acquired franchise consultancy Franchise Creator. axios.link/3P8W56r

⚡ LS Power agreed to buy a portfolio of natural ​gas-fired generation in Pennsylvania and Delaware for $5b from Constellation Energy (Nasdaq: CEG), which is divesting due to regulatory commitments tied to its Calpine acquisition. axios.link/4siwCpw

🚑 Paratek Pharmaceuticals, a portfolio company of B-Flexion Life Sciences and Novo Holdings, acquired Radius Health, a Boston-based developer of an osteoporosis therapy, from Gurnet Point Capital, Webster Equity Partners, OrbiMed, and Patient Square Capital. axios.link/4buE2yP

• SouthernCarlson, a Truelink Capital portfolio company, acquired Greenwald Supply Direct, a Hyattsville, Md.-based building products distributor. axios.link/3PioiYr

• Tech24, a portfolio company of Vestar Capital Partners and HCI Equity Partners, acquired Pacific Standard Service, an Albany, Calif.-based provider of commercial cooking equipment. axios.link/4lytqDE

• Tulkoff Foods, a Graham Partners portfolio company, acquired Celtrade, a Canadian private-label food manufacturer. axios.link/41iUmxT

• AmperCap Acquisition, a SPAC led by the founders of AmperCap, filed for a $125m IPO. axios.link/475MOSI

⚡ Aggreko, a Glasgow-based power generator rental firm owned by TDR Capital and I Squared Capital, is interviewing IPO bankers, per Bloomberg. axios.link/41iq5zf

• Kraken, a crypto exchange valued by VCs at $20b, has paused its IPO plans, per CoinDesk. axios.link/4rAI7I1

• Relativity picked banks for an IPO that could value the Silver Lake-backed legal data company at around $4b, per Bloomberg. axios.link/3NnRHjn

• Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) acqui-hired the team of collaboration startup Cove, which had raised $6m in seed funding from Sequoia Capital, Elad Gil, Homebrew, and Adverb. axios.link/3NAJrMO

🚑 Varsity Healthcare Partners hired Moelis to sell revenue cycle management company Ventra Health, although the process is unlikely to launch before year-end, per Axios Pro. axios.link/47uyvYb

Eight states have sued to block Nexstar (Nasdaq: NXST) from buying rival broadcaster Tegna (NYSE: RGNA) for $3.54b — a deal publicly supported by both President Trump and FCC chair Brendan Carr.

• As Axios' Sara Fischer recently wrote, state AGs have become America's new antitrust cops.

🚑 Elliott Investment Management built a stake in Align Technology (Nasdaq: ALGN), the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening products, per Bloomberg. axios.link/4skREUw

• Ferrero, a food group whose brands include Nutella and Tic Tac, agreed to acquire Brazilian protein bar maker Bold Sacks. axios.link/4uD3ueo

• Unilever (NYSE: UL) and Kraft Heinz (Nasdaq: KHC) discussed merging their food and condiments portfolios but talks have been tabled, per the FT. axios.link/41getwK

• Adenia Partners, an Africa-focused PE firm, raised $180m for a fund focused on control investments in small and lower mid-cap companies. axios.link/3NN1TC3

• Marc Andrusko joined Oak HC/FT as a fintech-focused partner, per Axios Pro. He previously was with a16z. axios.link/4tdCqB5

🚑 Sameer Mathur (ex-Chicago Pacific Founders) and Bridie Gahan joined Kain Capital (Astrana Health) as a partner and VP of strategy, respectively. axios.link/4sLBUtA

• Jennifer Roach joined Manna Tree as a managing director. She previously was with Yellow Wood Partners. axios.link/47bNpCq

• Jonathan Au joined Revelation Partners as a partner. He previously was with CVC Secondary Partners (fka Glendower Capital). axios.link/4de1Ae7

Uber this morning said it will invest up to $1.25 billion into EV maker Rivian, as part of its plan to deploy thousands of robotaxis in 25 cities beginning in 2028, Axios' Joann Muller reports.

By the numbers: The deal includes $300 million upfront, pending regulatory approval, with the rest based on milestones through 2031.

• Rivian shares climbed more than 8% in premarket trading, while Uber shares were largely unchanged.

Joann writes: "Uber keeps upping the ante on its autonomous vehicle strategy, with a growing list of AV partnerships and increasing financial commitments for depot operations, EV charging and tens of thousands of robotaxis."