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Image: H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty; Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The employment outlook for African Americans will "worsen dramatically" as automation upends the workforce, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.

Why it matters: By 2030, African American workers stand to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs as a result of increased automation, widening the racial wealth gap and weighing down overall U.S. growth.

  • The problem will be particularly acute for men, younger workers between 18 and 35, and those without a college degree, according to the report, "The future of work in black America."

The cost: Researchers have projected that closing the racial wealth gap could net the U.S. economy between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion by 2028.

  • The additional loss of jobs and buying power from African Americans could mean further opportunity cost losses.

Details: African American workers are at risk of exceptional job losses for three key reasons.

  1. They are over-represented in "support roles that are most likely to be affected by automation, such as truck drivers, food service workers, and office clerks."
  2. They have an unemployment rate that is double that of white workers, "even when controlling for education, duration of unemployment, and the cause of unemployment."
  3. They are underrepresented in five of the six parts of the country projected to grow the fastest, and over-represented in parts of the country that are on pace to see the slowest growth.

Between the lines: Researchers found "more than 200 counties, largely concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest, where a decline in African American net job growth could occur alongside an increase in job growth for white employees."

  • African American women are expected to fare better than men, in part because of their strength in fields projected to grow — home health aides, nursing assistants and personal-care aides.
Data: Adapted from McKinsey & Co., "The future of work in black America." Graphic: Noa Yadidi/Axios

The bottom line, from Kaveh Waddell, co-author of Axios Future: Preparations for the future of work, like job training programs and potential new safety nets, will need to be tailored in part to the groups who will bear the brunt of the changes.

  • Otherwise, this inflection point could widen longstanding pay gaps rather than shrink them.

Go deeper: Read the report

Go deeper

Senate confirms retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as defense secretary

Photo: Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images

The Senate voted 93-2 on Friday to confirm retired Gen. Lloyd Austin as secretary of defense. Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) were the sole "no" votes.

Why it matters: Austin is the first Black American to lead the Pentagon and President Biden's second Cabinet nominee to be confirmed.

House will transmit article of impeachment to Senate on Monday, Schumer says

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that the House will deliver the article of impeachment against former President Trump for "incitement of insurrection" on Monday.

Why it matters: The Senate is required to begin the impeachment trial at 1pm the day after the article is transmitted.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Private equity bets on delayed tax reform in Biden administration

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

In normal times, private equity would be nervous about Democratic Party control of both the White House and Congress. But in pandemic-consumed 2021, the industry seems sanguine.

Driving the news: Industry executives and lobbyists paid very close attention to Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen's confirmation hearings this week, and came away convinced that tax reform isn't on the near-term agenda.