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The resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok leaves Sudan's military with the difficult task of trying to find a replacement with broad domestic and international support.

Why it matters: Hamdok’s long-awaited resignation came amid a months-long political crisis that is nowhere near over. The U.S. and other international actors fear it was another blow to Sudan's sputtering democratic transition.

Meanwhile, more than 50 people have reportedly been killed in protests against the military that began after Hamdok was toppled in an Oct. 25 coup and have continued since he was reinstated a month later.

Driving the news: A downbeat Hamdok appeared on national television on Sunday night, announcing his resignation and lamenting that he had desperately tried but failed to bring about national consensus.

“My acceptance of the assignment to the position of prime minister was on the basis of a political consensus between the civilian and military components, which I had preached as a unique Sudanese model. But it did not survive with the same degree of commitment and harmony with which it began.”

Behind the scenes: Hamdok's resignation had been in the works for several weeks, but was delayed by pressure from the military, political forces in Sudan, and international players who sought to keep alive the Nov. 21 agreement in which Hamdok was released from house arrest and restored to his position.

The agreement, signed with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council, called for Hamdok to form a "technocratic" and "non-partisan" Cabinet.

That left him boxed in, with interference from the military and its political allies on one side and pressure from protesters and the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) — the pro-democracy political alliance that first nominated him for the job in 2019 — on the other.

What they're saying: A senior FFC source said Hamdok came to realize that even if he managed to form such a Cabinet, it would be rejected by the protesters.

The FFC has also criticized Hamdok for signing a deal without consulting them. An aide to Hamdok pushed back on that criticism and told me Hamdok had been trying to prevent further bloodshed.

The military, meanwhile, has claimed squabbling politicians have derailed the transition that began after dictator Omar al-Bashir was toppled in 2019.

State of play: On Tuesday, the EU, Norway U.S. and U.K. sent a public message to the Sudanese military warning that they would "not support a Prime Minister or government appointed without the involvement of a broad range of civilian stakeholders."

Secretary of State Tony Blinken also spoke with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which have influence on the Sudanese military.

What’s next: The FFC official said the military has two choices: revert to the Bashir era of domestic repression and conflict with the international community, or seek a settlement that is acceptable to the major players to get the transition back on track

Both are equally likely, the source said, adding that Sudan's economic crisis may act as a catalyst for a resolution.

Sudan PM's resignation leaves military in a bind as protests rage on

Gen. Burhan (right) with PM Hamdok last April. Photo: Ahsraf Shazly/AFP via Getty

Sudan

The resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok leaves Sudan&#x27;s military with the difficult task of trying to find a replacement with broad domestic and international support.Why it matters: Hamdok’s long-awaited resignation came amid a months-long political crisis that is nowhere near over. The U.S. and other international actors fear it was another blow to Sudan&#x27;s sputtering democratic transition.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The Sudanese military and the country's coalition of civilian parties signed a political agreement on Monday, but there is still a lot of skepticism about whether it will truly lead to a transition to democracy in the country. 

Why it matters: The agreement could be a first step toward the exit of the Sudanese military from the political system and the establishment of a full-fledged civilian government, though the specific details still must be worked out. The deal also doesn't have the support of several key players. 

Catch up quick: The December 2018 uprising, which eventually saw the ouster of 30-year ruler Omar al-Bashir, was followed by a power-sharing agreement between the military and the Forces of Freedom and Change, a coalition of different political parties and factions that demonstrated against al-Bashir.

But on Oct. 25 of last year, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that ended the partnership model and briefly jailed members of the government, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

Al-Burhan has struggled ever since to form a government that enjoys domestic and international support. A tripartite mechanism was established consisting of the UN, African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development with the goal of brokering an agreement that would see a return to civilian rule.

Driving the news: On Monday, al-Burhan signed what was described as a framework agreement with civilian parties and called for the formation of a civilian government.

According to the agreement, the head of state and commander in chief of the military will now be a civilian, which means that al-Burhan may be on his way out, though he is expected to remain as commander of the army.

The agreement also stated that the civilian prime minister, who holds executive powers, will preside over the Defense Ministry and security council.

The Sudanese Armed Forces “shall be subject to the institutions of the Transitional Authority and shall not be used against the Sudanese people, nor shall they interfere in political affairs," the agreement added. 

Another significant, yet symbolic, clause in the agreement states that both civilians and military commit "to the criminalization of all forms of resorting to violence, extremism, military coups, or deviating from constitutional legitimacy and undermining the democratic system."

The agreement has set a new transitional period that will last 24 months from the date that a new prime minister is appointed after which elections will be held.

Yes, but: So far the major ex-rebel groups, who supported the coup and are seen as allies to the military, have voiced strong opposition to the agreement and warned that it will backfire.

It remains to be seen if they will change course, particularly after the agreement received international backing, including from the U.S., EU, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt.

Some protesters, including pro-democracy Resistance Committees, have also rejected the agreement. 

What they're saying: Al-Burhan has pledged to abide by the agreement and that the military will withdraw from the political scene while urging parties to prepare for elections.

The commander of the strongest militia in the country — the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (Hemedti) —who is also Burhan’s deputy, acknowledged in remarks this week that the coup staged last year was a “political mistake” but said it was a result of shortcomings of the transitional period.

Al-Burhan however, disputed his deputy’s characterization and insisted that the coup was a "necessity."

What's next: All sides will now continue to negotiate a final deal that will also tackle contentious political issues.

It is not clear how long the process will take, but the Sudan Transitional Sovereignty Council suggested it will be a matter of weeks, which many analysts believe is a very optimistic time frame.

Skepticism as Sudan's military and pro-democracy group ink deal

The deal could be a first step toward the exit of the military from the political system, but key details remain unclear.

Sudan's military and civilian leaders are seen at the signing ceremony of a political framework agreement in Khartoum, Sudan, Dec. 5, 2022. 

Sudan's military and civilian leaders are seen at the signing ceremony of a political framework agreement in Khartoum, Sudan, on Dec. 5. Photo: Mohamed Khidir/Xinhua via Getty Images

The Sudanese military and the country&#x27;s coalition of civilian parties signed a political agreement on Monday, but there is still a lot of skepticism about whether it will truly lead to a transition to democracy in the country. Why it matters: The agreement could be a first step toward the exit of the Sudanese military from the political system and the establishment of a full-fledged civilian government, though the specific details still must be worked out. The deal also doesn&#x27;t have the support of several key players.

One of the most outspoken and high-profile civilian members of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC), Mohamed Elfaki Suleiman, said in an interview that the military faction of the council wants to create a government it can control without staging a coup.

Why it matters: Sudan is facing a political crisis 2½ years after the fall of dictator Omar al-Bashir. Thousands took to the streets over the weekend to urge the military to take power, while anti-military demonstrations are planned for Thursday. The protests come just three weeks after a failed coup that the government blamed on Bashir loyalists.

The backstory: The TSC was formed after the revolution in 2019 to oversee a 39-month transition to democratic elections in 2022.

Suleiman was one of five civilians nominated by the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition to serve on the TSC, which in turn selected Abdalla Hamdok to serve as prime minister.

Leadership of the TSC is supposed to transition from Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to a civilian in the coming months, and Suleiman is a strong contender to become the first civilian head of the council.

What's happening: Burhan and his deputy, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, have escalated their rhetoric against Hamdok's civilian government in recent weeks.

They're calling for it to be dissolved and for a new government to include additional political factions (while still excluding Bashir's National Congress Party).

What he's saying: Suleiman, who spoke to Axios by phone from Khartoum, claimed Burhan was driven by ulterior motives.

“Burhan does not want to stage a military coup right now because it will be very difficult under the current environment. However, he wants to produce a new political reality by creating a civilian government he can control," he said.

Suleiman said Burhan plans to install allies inside the civilian government under the guise of expanding political representation, and the general believes now is the time to strike because of the fatigue and apathy of the Sudanese people over the tough economic situation and political infighting.

He also accused Burhan and the military of forestalling reforms of state institutions — including the civil service, judiciary and security sector — which Suleiman said were essential for dismantling the "old state" and transitioning to democracy.

For example, the military has had several meetings about the candidates to serve as chief justice, but it has not made any decision, Suleiman revealed. The post has been vacant since May.

The other side: Burhan said this week that he was committed to the transition to an elected civilian government. After the coup attempt, he said it was the military that was protecting the revolution from civilian politicians “who want to steal it,” rather than the other way around.

State of play: Leadership of the TSC is set to shift from Burhan to a civilian, but the timing is disputed.

Suleiman dismissed the debate over the timing as a distraction used by the military to portray the civilians as squabbling over posts.

What’s next: Suleiman expressed "100% confidence" that Hamdok will not seek any secret deals with the military and insisted the Sudanese people would overwhelmingly resist any attempts at a military takeover, whatever their misgivings about Hamdok’s government.

He asserted that the Constitutional Declaration that established the TSC can only be amended with the consent of both the FFC and the military and that it was up to the FFC and Hamdok — not the military — to determine the makeup of the government.

On the thorny issue of handing Bashir over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to be charged with crimes against humanity, Suliman claimed the military wing was hesitant to proceed with extradition on the grounds that Bashir holds sensitive state secrets that pose a risk to national security.

Suliman said he sees no obstacles to the TSC approving the cabinet decision to ratify the Rome Statute of the ICC.

Suleiman dismissed reports that the military and civilian wings of the government are at odds over the decision to normalize ties with Israel.

Sudan and Israel agreed last October to normalize relations, but the process stalled. The Biden administration is seeking to hold a signing ceremony in Washington in the coming weeks to formally conclude it.

Flashback: Burhan met in Uganda with then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in February 2020, and the general played a leading role in the decision to normalize ties.

Driving the news: Last month, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi was quoted by the UAE-based The National newspaper as saying, “There's not any sign of normalization with Israel."

Al-Mahdi, the daughter of a former prime minister, is known to oppose talks with the Jewish state.

Yes, but: Justice Minister Nasredeen Abdulbari held surprise meetings in Abu Dhabi last week with Israel's deputy prime minister and minister for regional cooperation.

What to watch: Suleiman said those opposing normalization within the government are a minority and the process will proceed.

He also claimed that civilian members of the government had been angry about the Burhan-Netanyahu meeting because it was planned in secrecy without their input, not because they opposed links with Israel.

Suleiman said he has no issues communicating with Israeli officials in accordance with government policies.

Go deeper: U.S. envoy to visit Sudan as "most dangerous" crisis intensifies.

Sudan military wants to take power without coup, civilian leader says

Sudan is facing a political crisis between its military and civilian leaders and their supporters.

Burhan (center) and Dagalo attend a military graduation ceremony. Photo: Mahmoud Hjaj/Anadolu Agency via Getty

One of the most outspoken and high-profile civilian members of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC), Mohamed Elfaki Suleiman, said in an interview that the military faction of the council wants to create a government it can control without staging a coup.Why it matters: Sudan is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="facing a political crisis 2½ years after the fall" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/sudan-protests-us-diplomat-feltman-5bd005ef-d496-456b-af54-66cc210f5763.html" data-vars-content-id="7b9287de-d49c-486d-a180-e6fe1b66a435" data-vars-headline="Sudan military wants to take power without coup, civilian leader says" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/sudan-protests-us-diplomat-feltman-5bd005ef-d496-456b-af54-66cc210f5763.html" target="_self">facing a political crisis 2½ years after the fall</a> of dictator Omar al-Bashir. Thousands took to the streets over the weekend to urge the military to take power, while anti-military demonstrations are planned for Thursday. The protests come just three weeks after a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="failed coup" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/25404089.11088/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2ZvaWxlZC1jb3VwLXN1ZGFuLXNvdmVyZWlnbi1jb3VuY2lsLTJhNjdmMGE3LTM4NTUtNDc3Zi1hZTUyLWRiMjM5ODRkYmZlZC5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zdGVsYXZpdiZzdHJlYW09d29ybGQ/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B1df5c4db" data-vars-content-id="7b9287de-d49c-486d-a180-e6fe1b66a435" data-vars-headline="Sudan military wants to take power without coup, civilian leader says" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/25404089.11088/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2ZvaWxlZC1jb3VwLXN1ZGFuLXNvdmVyZWlnbi1jb3VuY2lsLTJhNjdmMGE3LTM4NTUtNDc3Zi1hZTUyLWRiMjM5ODRkYmZlZC5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zdGVsYXZpdiZzdHJlYW09d29ybGQ/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B1df5c4db" target="_blank">failed coup</a> that the government blamed on Bashir loyalists.

Sudan’s military leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan signaled in a speech on Monday that for the first time since last year’s coup, he might be willing to return some authority to a civilian government — comments the country's main civilian political bloc rejected as a "tactical retreat."

The big picture: Burhan is facing growing pressure from anti-military protesters and the international community to restore the civilian government. 

Dozens of people have been killed in the protests since the Oct. 25 coup.

Catch up quick: Following the downfall of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, the military formed a political partnership with a coalition of major political forces known as Freedom of Forces and Change (FFC) to run the country until elections were held.

That arrangement came to an end in the Oct. 25 coup. The military has struggled ever since to establish a government and appoint a prime minister.

In a joint effort, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia restored talks between the military and the civilian political factions, but no agreement has been achieved.

Driving the news: In a surprise announcement on Sudan's national television late Monday, Burhan said the military will no longer participate in the dialogue sponsored by the African Union, the UN and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development — an eight-country trade bloc in Eastern Africa.

The three organizations have been working to reach a compromise that would pull the country out of the political deadlock.

Today, the groups said they had decided to cancel talks in the current format, but will engage parties to figure out the way forward.

In his speech, Burhan warned that Sudan is going through a crisis that endangers “its unity and national cohesion." He blamed the situation on political infighting.

Burhan signaled the military would take a step back from politics and let civilians decide among themselves on the formation of a government consisting of “independent and competent figures."

He said once that happens, he will dissolve the Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) he chairs but will form a supreme council for the armed forces that will also incorporate the controversial Rapid Support Forces to manage security and defense.

On Tuesday, Burhan took another step to roll back some of his post-coup decisions, firing five civilian members of the TSC he appointed last November.

The other side: The FFC swiftly rejected Burhan’s speech, calling it a “maneuver” and a “tactical retreat” that came under the pressure of continued street protests.

The statement from FFC’s executive office said the announcement fell short of its demand of a full military exit from the political arena by attempting to “impose guardianship” on the formation of the government and its mandate.

What to watch: Burhan acts as the head of state and commander in chief of the Sudanese army. A lingering question will be whether the military and its leaders will agree to report to a civilian head of state who will have control over foreign policy.

The street protests calling for civilian rule are likely to continue as politicians and international mediators attempt to get the military to offer more concessions.

Sudan political crisis deepens as protesters reject military offer

Sudan’s military leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is facing growing pressure to restore the civilian government.

Anti-coup protesters march against military rule in Khartoum on June 30. Photo: AFP

Sudan’s military leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan signaled in a speech on Monday that for the first time since <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="last year’s coup" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/25/us-freezes-sudan-aid-over-coup" data-vars-content-id="eb82c5aa-196e-40a3-ae80-435a3656cb8d" data-vars-headline="Sudan political crisis deepens as protesters reject military offer" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/10/25/us-freezes-sudan-aid-over-coup" target="_self">last year’s coup</a>, he might be willing to return some authority to a civilian government — comments the country&#x27;s main civilian political bloc rejected as a &quot;tactical retreat.&quot;The big picture: Burhan is facing growing pressure from anti-military protesters and the international community to restore the civilian government.

Sudanese media are reporting that several Arab countries are trying to promote a behind-the-scenes initiative to bring former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok back to the political scene. 

Driving the news: The army chief and chairman of the sovereign council Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan appears unable to bring about any form of political reconciliation amid persistent waves of street protests and rising casualties among demonstrators. 

Catch up fast: Sudanese military leaders deposed Hamdok and placed him under house arrest last October, prompting mass protests and derailing the country's fragile transition to democracy.

Military leaders described the coup as a "course correction."

A power-sharing agreement was reached last November to reinstate Hamdok as prime minister, but the pro-democracy movement rejected the deal and protests continued.

The big picture: Several Arab countries are trying to build a new power-sharing government between civilians and the military, according to press reports in Sudan.

Burhan visited the UAE in recent days and met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. The Emiratis are a key player in trying to break the political deadlock in Sudan.

The Sudanese sovereign council said in a statement that bin Zayed promised “large deposits" in Sudanese banks and the establishment of developmental projects to boost the Sudanese economy.

Hamdok, who declined to comment, reportedly met with Burhan in Abu Dhabi during his visit.

But a source who is in constant contact with the former prime minister told Axios that Hamdok vehemently denies intentions of assuming any political position in Sudan. The military did not comment.

State of play: African Union special envoy to Sudan Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt warned at a press conference in Khartoum last week that the country is in “grave danger” if political players fail to quickly reach a consensus that would bring back the constitutional order that existed prior to the Oct. 25 military coup.

Earlier this year, the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, headed by Volker Perthes of Germany, launched a series of meetings with hundreds of Sudanese stakeholders with the goal of breaking the political impasse and facilitating a dialogue that would eventually lead to an agreement.

The gloomy political picture is coupled with a deteriorating economy driven by the suspension of international aid in the wake of the coup.

The Sudanese government has decided to devalue the Sudanese pound in order to bring about parity or exchange rate with the black-market rate — a move that is all but certain to push up prices of goods and services. This comes in addition to an expected rise in taxes this year.

What to watch: Sudan is currently torn between some street protesters who insist the military totally relinquish rule to civilians and a military that says it will only hand power to an elected government.

Burhan, however, has recently hinted that he is open to accepting a civilian government formed through "national consensus" without giving details.

Reports: Arab nations push for Hamdok to return to Sudan politics

They are trying to build a new power-sharing government between civilians and the military.

Abdalla Hamdok. Photo: Sarah Meyssonnier/AFP via Getty Images

South Sudan

Sudanese media are <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reporting" data-vars-click-url="https://www.alsudaninews.com/ar/?p=148267" data-vars-content-id="ebd6ed9d-5b89-4235-95cd-983643ac1d3e" data-vars-headline="Reports: Arab nations push for Hamdok to return to Sudan politics" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.alsudaninews.com/ar/?p=148267" target="_blank">reporting</a> that several Arab countries are trying to promote a behind-the-scenes initiative to bring former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok back to the political scene. Driving the news: The army chief and chairman of the sovereign council Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan appears unable to bring about any form of political reconciliation amid persistent waves of street protests and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="rising casualties" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/SD_DOCTORS/status/1503500483360702465" data-vars-content-id="ebd6ed9d-5b89-4235-95cd-983643ac1d3e" data-vars-headline="Reports: Arab nations push for Hamdok to return to Sudan politics" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/SD_DOCTORS/status/1503500483360702465" target="_blank">rising casualties</a> among demonstrators.

Wasil Ali

Stories

Skepticism as Sudan's military and pro-democracy group ink deal

Sudan political crisis deepens as protesters reject military offer

Reports: Arab nations push for Hamdok to return to Sudan politics

Sudan PM's resignation leaves military in a bind as protests rage on

Sudan military wants to take power without coup, civilian leader says