National

DUBAI -- The scenes of panic at Kabul airport have been uncomfortable to watch for many people in the Gulf.

Why it matters: Governments in the region, particularly the UAE, have supported NATO’s mission and provided Afghanistan with aid, building up ties with successive governments in Kabul over the years since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.

Now Gulf countries are concerned about the possible implications of the renewed instability in Afghanistan — refugee flows, a humanitarian crisis and a potential renewal of civil war — for the security of the wider region.

There are also concerns that terror groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda could again flourish in the resulting chaos.

America's status as a steadfast ally for Gulf governments is now also under more scrutiny than before. 

Biden’s speech on Monday night, in which he argued that the U.S. should move on from Afghanistan to focus on more pressing national security concerns like China, cast some doubt on his administration’s appetite for a continuing role in the Middle East.

State of play: The Gulf Cooperation Council, chaired by Bahrain, said it would discuss the situation in Afghanistan, which has developed at a dizzying speed.

The bloc, which also includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman, has yet to respond as a group, but members have made individual statements.

What they're saying: The UAE on Tuesday stressed the need for all parties in Afghanistan to urgently achieve stability, while diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash welcomed the "encouraging" remarks from Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid on "amnesty and tolerance over revenge, as well as his promise to honor the rights of women to education and work."

Qatar, which has hosted a series of negotiations as well as the Taliban leadership, called for a ceasefire and “a comprehensive solution."

Saudi Arabia said it backed the choices made by the Afghan people “without interference,” and Kuwait urged all to exercise “maximum restraint."

Ahmed bin Hamad Al Khalili, the grand mufti of Oman, has congratulated the people of Afghanistan on their “victory."

What’s next: Gulf countries are concerned that the Afghanistan situation could be replicated in Iraq following the agreement made in July between President Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi to end the U.S. combat mission in the country by the end of this year. 

While U.S. forces will remain in an advisory capacity, the prospect of another vacuum will have many nervous across the region. 

Driving the news: The UAE announced on Wednesday that it had welcomed former Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and his family into the country on "humanitarian grounds."

Gulf states wary of U.S. withdrawal and ensuing chaos

Governments in the region, particularly the UAE, have supported NATO’s mission in Afghanistan.

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed. Photo: Michele Tantussi/Getty Images

United Arab Emirates

Afghanistan

DUBAI -- The scenes of panic at Kabul airport have been uncomfortable to watch for many people in the Gulf.Why it matters: Governments in the region, particularly the UAE, have supported NATO’s mission and provided Afghanistan with aid, building up ties with successive governments in Kabul over the years since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

An interview with Lebanon’s new minister of information, TV celebrity George Kordahi, is sparking a crisis between Gulf countries and the fragile new government in Beirut.

Why it matters: The crisis shows how a possible thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be complicated by Tehran’s regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Background: Kordahi, a 71-year-old Maronite Christian, began his career as a journalist and became popular in the UAE and Saudi Arabia when he hosted the local version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”

His appointment to the new government in Lebanon was supported by Hezbollah.

In August, before joining the government, Kordahi gave an interview in which he criticized Saudi Arabia for the war in Yemen. The interview wasn't published until last week.

In it, Kordahi asserted that the Iran-backed Houthi rebels were only engaged in self-defense against the Saudi-led coalition, which was truly responsible for the war.

Driving the news: Saudi Arabia took offense and cut all ties with Lebanon, including blocking Lebanese imports. Then the country's Gulf allies joined in.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has withdrawn its diplomats from Beirut and told Emiratis in Lebanon to return home.

Kuwait and Bahrain have called their ambassadors in Beirut home and asked Lebanon's representatives in their countries to leave.

Qatar and Oman have issued statements criticizing Kordahi’s comments but didn’t take further action

State of play: Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who formed a government in September after a 13-month political deadlock, urged Kordahi to "put his patriotic sense above all else" to defuse the crisis.

Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi has reportedly advised Kordahi to step down as well, but so far Kordahi has refused.

Even if Kordahi does resign, it would not necessarily resolve the crisis and could precipitate the collapse of the fledgling Lebanese government, which consists of a precarious balance of competing factions.

Mikati faces the daunting challenge of trying to reset relations with Gulf countries, which are historically generous donors but have become increasingly wary of Hezbollah’s stranglehold influence, while keeping his government together.

What to watch: At COP26 in Glasgow, Mikati lobbied his Kuwaiti and Qatari counterparts for support and also visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia pavilions at the conference exhibition. So far, Saudi Arabia has not been moved by such gestures.

France and the U.S. want to avoid a collapse of the government in Beirut and are trying to end the Saudi-Lebanese crisis, diplomatic sources said.

Why Saudi Arabia is outraged at Lebanon

Saudi Arabia cut all ties with Lebanon, including blocking Lebanese imports.

A billboard of George Kordahi in Sana'a, Yemen, put up by the Houthi rebels to support his comments on the war. Photo: Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty.

Middle East

Israel

An interview with Lebanon’s new minister of information, TV celebrity George Kordahi, is sparking a crisis between Gulf countries and the fragile new government in Beirut.Why it matters: The crisis shows how a possible thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be complicated by Tehran’s regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

A little over a week after Abu Dhabi suffered its first deadly attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels, the UAE is using a combination of military and diplomatic measures to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table.

Driving the news: On Monday, the UAE military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at Abu Dhabi by Houthi rebels from Yemen. No casualties were reported, but three people were killed in the attack one week earlier.

The U.S. military's Central Command helped foil Monday's attack, which targeted an air base that hosts nearly 2,000 U.S. service members. The UAE Ministry of Defense later announced Emirati fighter jets had destroyed the missile launcher used to fire the rockets.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday to show his support after the attacks.

Saudi-led airstrikes last Friday killed dozens of people in Yemen and knocked out the internet. The Houthis have also targeted Saudi Arabia.

State of play: Despite the lingering question of whether such attacks will become a regular worry, daily life in the UAE remains unaffected.

Children in Abu Dhabi went back to school as scheduled this week after a period of distance learning due to COVID-19 safety measures.

Large-scale international business events and conferences have carried on. The airports are unaffected. Oil prices and local stock markets seem to have shrugged off the immediate worry.

One impact, however, is that flights of all drones and light sports aircraft have been banned without special permission.

What they're saying: The UAE government said it would defend itself "proportionately" against the Houthi attacks.

Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash told U.S. special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking last week that the Houthis were unwilling to work toward a political solution to the war and must therefore face additional international pressure.

The UAE has pushed for the U.S. to redesignate the Iran-backed Houthis as a terror group, as Axios reported last week.

President Biden promised to withdraw support for the Saudi-led coalition upon taking office, but his administration has been sending signals of support to the UAE after the attacks.

The big picture: After Houthi rebels took the Yemeni capital in 2014, a Saudi-led coalition — which includes the Emiratis and was backed by the U.S. — intervened and the conflict spiraled into a civil war and perhaps the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

The UAE had been seeking to deescalate the conflict, including by reaching out to Iran, which backs the Houthis. Emirati officials say they will continue to push for a ceasefire in Yemen and then a political solution.

However, the attacks could dial up regional tensions with Iran, which is believed to have supplied most of the Houthis' advanced weaponry.

The renewed tensions could make some in the region more likely to speak out against a new nuclear deal with Iran, assuming it doesn't address the proliferation of ballistic missiles.

Worth noting: Israeli President Isaac Herzog will arrive in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. This will be the first-ever public visit of an Israeli president in the UAE.

UAE plots path forward after Houthi attacks

The UAE is using military and diplomatic measures to pressure Yemen's Houthi rebels to come to the negotiating table.

A view of Abu Dhabi this week. Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty

A little over a week after Abu Dhabi suffered its first deadly attack by Yemen&#x27;s Houthi rebels, the UAE is using a combination of military and diplomatic measures to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table.Driving the news: On Monday, the UAE military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at Abu Dhabi by Houthi rebels from Yemen. No casualties were reported, but three people were killed in the attack one week earlier.

ABU DHABI, UAE — Weeks of intense diplomatic efforts led by the UN and U.S. have yielded a truce in Yemen.

Why it matters: The immediate result of the truce has been the easing of a fuel crisis and greater freedom of movement, which will likely bring relief to Yemenis struggling with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The backstory: A Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-backed Houthis since March 2015, after the Houthis overthrew the government in Sanaa.

According to the UN, around 24 million Yemenis are in need of humanitarian assistance, including almost 13 million children. More than 150,000 people, including fighters and civilians, have been killed as a result of the conflict.

Yemenis greeted news of a two-month truce with both hope and caution. A previous truce in 2016 and a partial halt to the fighting in 2018 both ultimately collapsed.

State of play: The Saudi-led coalition had in recent months halted Houthi advances in the key region of Marib.

The Houthis responded by stepping up attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including on energy infrastructure.

After those attacks, the U.S. pledged to help neutralize the Houthi threat to its Gulf partners.

Driving the news: The two-month halt to all fighting in Yemen went into effect late on Saturday, the first day of the holy month of Ramadan for most of the Muslim world.

During the two-month truce, the Saudi-led coalition will allow vessels carrying fuel into the key port of Hodeida and let flights from the Yemeni capital to Egypt and Jordan resume.

Both Hodeida and Sanaa are held by the Houthi rebels. Hodeida handles the majority of Yemen’s commercial and humanitarian imports.

Yes, but: Yemeni Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak claimed on Tuesday that the Houthis were already breaching the truce with “military deployments, mobilization of troops and vehicles, artillery and drone strikes." Houthi media outlets also accused the pro-government forces of "breaches."

Consultations held between Yemeni political factions in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh have been underway and will continue until Thursday, but the Houthis have declined to take part.

The UN hopes the meetings might still result in greater regional support for Yemen, including the restoration of basic services and the creation of economic opportunities.

What to watch: If direct talks between the government and the rebels do take place as a result of the truce, it will be a huge step toward ending the war.

A settlement of the Yemen crisis could dramatically reduce tensions in the Gulf, increase stability and remove a point of tension between Washington and its partners in the region.

Worth noting: Crude oil futures dipped Monday morning in Asian trade on the news of the truce, which could lower the risk to Saudi supply.

Yemen truce met with hope and caution

Yemenis are reacting to the first ceasefire in six years with hope and caution.

Forces loyal to Yemen's Houthi rebels march in a military parade in Saana. 

Yemen

ABU DHABI, UAE — Weeks of intense diplomatic efforts led by the UN and U.S. have yielded a truce in Yemen.Why it matters: The immediate result of the truce has been the easing of a fuel crisis and greater freedom of movement, which will likely bring relief to Yemenis struggling with one of the world’s worst <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="humanitarian crises" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27275438.18001/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2h1bWFuaXRhcmlhbi1jcmlzaXMtYWZnaGFuaXN0YW4teWVtZW4tZXRoaW9waWEtdWtyYWluZS1kMzE0Y2RjMC00YzRkLTQzODEtOGQzZC01MmNlMTdmNmYwYWIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc3RlbGF2aXYmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B619fabf3" data-vars-content-id="eb8016ed-e920-4d60-9de6-a656ab42d764" data-vars-headline="Yemen truce met with hope and caution" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27275438.18001/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2h1bWFuaXRhcmlhbi1jcmlzaXMtYWZnaGFuaXN0YW4teWVtZW4tZXRoaW9waWEtdWtyYWluZS1kMzE0Y2RjMC00YzRkLTQzODEtOGQzZC01MmNlMTdmNmYwYWIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc3RlbGF2aXYmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B619fabf3" target="_blank">humanitarian crises</a>.

Abu Dhabi — Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has emerged from Sunday's parliamentary elections as the leading figure in Iraqi politics.

Why it matters: Al-Sadr has positioned himself as a bulwark against foreign interference in Iraq. He has a history of violent opposition to U.S. forces in the country but has more recently proved adept at presenting himself to regional and international partners as a more palatable alternative to pro-Iranian rivals.

He is arguably the most successful opportunist of the post-Saddam Hussein era, rising over the last 18 years from relative obscurity to nationalist kingmaker.

The state of play: Turnout is estimated at just 41% of registered voters, and would be lower still if all eligible voters were included. Millions chose to boycott, and young Iraqis are particularly disillusioned.

The vote had been brought forward after mass protests against corruption, poor public services and Tehran’s interference in Iraqi affairs.

Breaking it down: Preliminary results showed al-Sadr's bloc winning at least 73 seats in the 329-member parliament.

The Iran-aligned Fatah Alliance, made up of Shiite militias, won just 14 seats, down from 48 in 2018. That could be viewed as a rejection of Iranian influence and of the militias' violent opposition to the protests. The head of the alliance rejected the results.

Al-Sadr is a rival of the Fatah Alliance and positions himself in opposition to Iran’s influence over the Shiite political class. But Nouri al-Maliki, the Iran-aligned former prime minister, also had a strong performance, complicating the prospects for a Shiite alliance.

A coalition led by Sunni parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi won 38 seats, making it potentially the second-largest bloc in parliament. Kurdish parties won 61 seats.

What’s next: Official final results are also still pending with votes still to be counted and seats to be determined. Although this is unlikely to change al-Sadr’s position, the delay increases the already charged atmosphere. 

There is a real risk of intra-Shiite tensions spilling into violence on the streets as groups jockey amid negotiations to form a government and choose a prime minister, which could take several months.

Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi did not run in the elections, though he could still potentially retain his job. Under his leadership, Iraq has taken on a mediator role for the region, and the choice of prime minister will influence whether that continues.

Of note: The Iraqi government has denied reports that the commander of Iran's IRGC Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, made a secret visit to Baghdad on Monday. Tehran will be keen to massage any disputes between parties loyal to it.

Iraq elections boost nationalist al-Sadr at expense of pro-Iran bloc

Pro-Iran militias are disputing the result.

Al-Sadr supporters celebrate in Baghdad. Photo: Ayman Yaqoob/Anadolu Agency via Getty

Iraq

Iran

Abu Dhabi — Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has emerged from Sunday&#x27;s parliamentary elections as the leading figure in Iraqi politics.Why it matters: Al-Sadr has positioned himself as a bulwark against foreign interference in Iraq. He has a history of violent opposition to U.S. forces in the country but has more recently proved adept at presenting himself to regional and international partners as a more palatable alternative to pro-Iranian rivals.

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Mustafa Alrawi

Stories

Yemen truce met with hope and caution

UAE plots path forward after Houthi attacks

Why Saudi Arabia is outraged at Lebanon

Iraq elections boost nationalist al-Sadr at expense of pro-Iran bloc

Gulf states wary of U.S. withdrawal and ensuing chaos