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ABU DHABI, UAE —The Gulf region is expressing some optimism for President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week.

Driving the news: Biden on Saturday will meet with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Iraq and Jordan (known as the GCC+3). This forum has added an extra dimension to the GCC’s influence, and the meeting is significant for both Gulf and U.S. interests. 

What to expect: There are plenty of areas of common interest and where progress can be made.

At the meeting, the GCC countries — Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE — are expected to discuss prioritizing defense matters, countering Iran, and solidifying support for the Yemen war truce, as well as exploring economic initiatives with the U.S.

Cybersecurity, as well as the development of a regionally integrated air defense system, is also expected to be discussed.

Although the chances of a new nuclear deal with Iran appear to be low, the GCC countries hope that any return to the deal will also include Iran’s ballistic missile and drone threat.

The big picture: Continued support from the U.S.-led effort to end the war in Yemen will also be a key issue.

While global energy security and high oil prices will be on the agenda during Biden’s visit, investment in clean energy, such as solar, would also be a priority for Gulf countries, which have set targets for net-zero carbon emissions.

Generating fresh momentum towards progress on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is also an important area for Gulf countries in terms of fostering stability. Jordan’s King Abdullah said he wants it to top the agenda during Biden’s visit.

What they're saying: Lana Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the UN and assistant minister for political affairs, told Axios that Biden's visit comes at a time when there are new, positive dynamics in the region that have the potential to create more stability and security.

“The Abraham Accords have spurred a wave of positive diplomatic energy for peace and co-existence," Nusseibeh said.

GCC countries express some optimism ahead of Biden's Saudi visit

There are plenty of areas of common interest and where progress can be made.

GCC leaders in Riyadh on Dec. 14, 2021. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Saudi Arabia

Joe Biden

ABU DHABI, UAE —The Gulf region is expressing some optimism for <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="President Biden’s visit" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/13/biden-visit-saudi-arabia-mbs-israel-palestinians" data-vars-content-id="506f0638-deb2-4589-a751-2d34b91dd4fa" data-vars-headline="GCC countries express some optimism ahead of Biden&#x27;s Saudi visit" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/13/biden-visit-saudi-arabia-mbs-israel-palestinians" target="_self">President Biden’s visit</a> to Saudi Arabia this week.Driving the news: Biden on Saturday will meet with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Iraq and Jordan (known as the GCC+3). This forum has added an extra dimension to the GCC’s influence, and the meeting is significant for both Gulf and U.S. interests.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The deep political deadlock in Iraq has entered its 10th month with no solution in sight and fears there could be a violent escalation.

Why it matters: Many are concerned the political crisis — the longest in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein — will lead to a flare-up of armed conflict on the streets between supporters of the different parties. 

A civil war in Iraq could lead to a larger conflict in the region with neighboring countries weighing in.

State of play: Iraq held early elections in October 2021 in response to a nationwide, pro-reform protest movement that began in late 2019.

Since the vote, a political deadlock, mainly among Shiite parties, has prevented the formation of a new government.

Last October's elections made Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Sadrist movement the largest bloc in Parliament.

His rivals — the Coordination Framework grouping of Shiite parties, which includes Iran-backed former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki — have thwarted al-Sadr’s efforts to form a coalition government with leading Sunni and Kurdish parties.

The Framework, for example, has been able to prevent enough MPs from attending parliament to vote on forming a new government.

Al-Sadr has ordered his own MPs to resign and blocked the Framework from nominating its own prime minister.

Both camps, which command heavily armed militias, also organized protests in the capital Baghdad in recent weeks.

Between the lines: Iraq’s oil wealth — with foreign currency reserves expected to surge to $90 billion by the end of the year — has not translated into an improved economic situation for many Iraqis. 

Al-Sadr has capitalized on the anger and frustration felt by Iraqis, casting himself as a nationalist bulwark against foreign interests, particularly Tehran’s influence.

Driving the news: Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi hosted a national dialogue last week that the Sadrist movement refused to take part in, though most other major groups did, as well as the UN envoy to Iraq.

Al-Sadr has demanded the country's judiciary dissolve Parliament, but this has been rejected.

Al-Sadr’s followers protested outside the Supreme Judiciary Council in Baghdad's Green Zone yesterday, escalating the situation.

The council responded by closing down all courts across the country for a day. A Baghdad court has also issued arrest warrants against three Sadrist leaders for “threatening the judiciary."

The big picture: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sought closer ties with Baghdad in recent years.

Iraq has been leading wider stability efforts, mainly between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

What to watch: Holding early elections as a way to end the crisis was not ruled out during last week's national dialogue meeting, but it is not clear how this can happen amid the current deadlock.

According to the Iraqi constitution, only Parliament can call early elections.

The Supreme Federal Court, however, is also looking into a separate lawsuit calling for the dissolution of Parliament, with a ruling expected next week.

Fears of violent escalation as Iraq's political deadlock deepens

10 months of deadlock and tensions with no end in sight.

Supporters of Iraqi Muslim Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr gather outside the headquarters of the Supreme Judicial Council on Aug. 23.

Supporters of Iraqi Muslim Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr gather outside the Supreme Judicial Council. Photo: Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP via Getty Images

Iraq

The deep political deadlock in Iraq has entered its 10th month with no solution in sight and fears there could be a violent escalation.Why it matters: Many are concerned the political crisis — the longest in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein — will lead to a flare-up of armed conflict on the streets between supporters of the different parties.

An interview with Lebanon’s new minister of information, TV celebrity George Kordahi, is sparking a crisis between Gulf countries and the fragile new government in Beirut.

Why it matters: The crisis shows how a possible thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be complicated by Tehran’s regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Background: Kordahi, a 71-year-old Maronite Christian, began his career as a journalist and became popular in the UAE and Saudi Arabia when he hosted the local version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”

His appointment to the new government in Lebanon was supported by Hezbollah.

In August, before joining the government, Kordahi gave an interview in which he criticized Saudi Arabia for the war in Yemen. The interview wasn't published until last week.

In it, Kordahi asserted that the Iran-backed Houthi rebels were only engaged in self-defense against the Saudi-led coalition, which was truly responsible for the war.

Driving the news: Saudi Arabia took offense and cut all ties with Lebanon, including blocking Lebanese imports. Then the country's Gulf allies joined in.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has withdrawn its diplomats from Beirut and told Emiratis in Lebanon to return home.

Kuwait and Bahrain have called their ambassadors in Beirut home and asked Lebanon's representatives in their countries to leave.

Qatar and Oman have issued statements criticizing Kordahi’s comments but didn’t take further action

State of play: Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who formed a government in September after a 13-month political deadlock, urged Kordahi to "put his patriotic sense above all else" to defuse the crisis.

Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi has reportedly advised Kordahi to step down as well, but so far Kordahi has refused.

Even if Kordahi does resign, it would not necessarily resolve the crisis and could precipitate the collapse of the fledgling Lebanese government, which consists of a precarious balance of competing factions.

Mikati faces the daunting challenge of trying to reset relations with Gulf countries, which are historically generous donors but have become increasingly wary of Hezbollah’s stranglehold influence, while keeping his government together.

What to watch: At COP26 in Glasgow, Mikati lobbied his Kuwaiti and Qatari counterparts for support and also visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia pavilions at the conference exhibition. So far, Saudi Arabia has not been moved by such gestures.

France and the U.S. want to avoid a collapse of the government in Beirut and are trying to end the Saudi-Lebanese crisis, diplomatic sources said.

Why Saudi Arabia is outraged at Lebanon

Saudi Arabia cut all ties with Lebanon, including blocking Lebanese imports.

A billboard of George Kordahi in Sana'a, Yemen, put up by the Houthi rebels to support his comments on the war. Photo: Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty.

Middle East

Israel

An interview with Lebanon’s new minister of information, TV celebrity George Kordahi, is sparking a crisis between Gulf countries and the fragile new government in Beirut.Why it matters: The crisis shows how a possible thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be complicated by Tehran’s regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

A little over a week after Abu Dhabi suffered its first deadly attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels, the UAE is using a combination of military and diplomatic measures to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table.

Driving the news: On Monday, the UAE military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at Abu Dhabi by Houthi rebels from Yemen. No casualties were reported, but three people were killed in the attack one week earlier.

The U.S. military's Central Command helped foil Monday's attack, which targeted an air base that hosts nearly 2,000 U.S. service members. The UAE Ministry of Defense later announced Emirati fighter jets had destroyed the missile launcher used to fire the rockets.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday to show his support after the attacks.

Saudi-led airstrikes last Friday killed dozens of people in Yemen and knocked out the internet. The Houthis have also targeted Saudi Arabia.

State of play: Despite the lingering question of whether such attacks will become a regular worry, daily life in the UAE remains unaffected.

Children in Abu Dhabi went back to school as scheduled this week after a period of distance learning due to COVID-19 safety measures.

Large-scale international business events and conferences have carried on. The airports are unaffected. Oil prices and local stock markets seem to have shrugged off the immediate worry.

One impact, however, is that flights of all drones and light sports aircraft have been banned without special permission.

What they're saying: The UAE government said it would defend itself "proportionately" against the Houthi attacks.

Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash told U.S. special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking last week that the Houthis were unwilling to work toward a political solution to the war and must therefore face additional international pressure.

The UAE has pushed for the U.S. to redesignate the Iran-backed Houthis as a terror group, as Axios reported last week.

President Biden promised to withdraw support for the Saudi-led coalition upon taking office, but his administration has been sending signals of support to the UAE after the attacks.

The big picture: After Houthi rebels took the Yemeni capital in 2014, a Saudi-led coalition — which includes the Emiratis and was backed by the U.S. — intervened and the conflict spiraled into a civil war and perhaps the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

The UAE had been seeking to deescalate the conflict, including by reaching out to Iran, which backs the Houthis. Emirati officials say they will continue to push for a ceasefire in Yemen and then a political solution.

However, the attacks could dial up regional tensions with Iran, which is believed to have supplied most of the Houthis' advanced weaponry.

The renewed tensions could make some in the region more likely to speak out against a new nuclear deal with Iran, assuming it doesn't address the proliferation of ballistic missiles.

Worth noting: Israeli President Isaac Herzog will arrive in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. This will be the first-ever public visit of an Israeli president in the UAE.

UAE plots path forward after Houthi attacks

The UAE is using military and diplomatic measures to pressure Yemen's Houthi rebels to come to the negotiating table.

A view of Abu Dhabi this week. Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty

United Arab Emirates

A little over a week after Abu Dhabi suffered its first deadly attack by Yemen&#x27;s Houthi rebels, the UAE is using a combination of military and diplomatic measures to pressure the Houthis to come to the negotiating table.Driving the news: On Monday, the UAE military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired at Abu Dhabi by Houthi rebels from Yemen. No casualties were reported, but three people were killed in the attack one week earlier.

ABU DHABI, UAE — Weeks of intense diplomatic efforts led by the UN and U.S. have yielded a truce in Yemen.

Why it matters: The immediate result of the truce has been the easing of a fuel crisis and greater freedom of movement, which will likely bring relief to Yemenis struggling with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The backstory: A Saudi-led coalition has been fighting the Iran-backed Houthis since March 2015, after the Houthis overthrew the government in Sanaa.

According to the UN, around 24 million Yemenis are in need of humanitarian assistance, including almost 13 million children. More than 150,000 people, including fighters and civilians, have been killed as a result of the conflict.

Yemenis greeted news of a two-month truce with both hope and caution. A previous truce in 2016 and a partial halt to the fighting in 2018 both ultimately collapsed.

State of play: The Saudi-led coalition had in recent months halted Houthi advances in the key region of Marib.

The Houthis responded by stepping up attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including on energy infrastructure.

After those attacks, the U.S. pledged to help neutralize the Houthi threat to its Gulf partners.

Driving the news: The two-month halt to all fighting in Yemen went into effect late on Saturday, the first day of the holy month of Ramadan for most of the Muslim world.

During the two-month truce, the Saudi-led coalition will allow vessels carrying fuel into the key port of Hodeida and let flights from the Yemeni capital to Egypt and Jordan resume.

Both Hodeida and Sanaa are held by the Houthi rebels. Hodeida handles the majority of Yemen’s commercial and humanitarian imports.

Yes, but: Yemeni Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak claimed on Tuesday that the Houthis were already breaching the truce with “military deployments, mobilization of troops and vehicles, artillery and drone strikes." Houthi media outlets also accused the pro-government forces of "breaches."

Consultations held between Yemeni political factions in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh have been underway and will continue until Thursday, but the Houthis have declined to take part.

The UN hopes the meetings might still result in greater regional support for Yemen, including the restoration of basic services and the creation of economic opportunities.

What to watch: If direct talks between the government and the rebels do take place as a result of the truce, it will be a huge step toward ending the war.

A settlement of the Yemen crisis could dramatically reduce tensions in the Gulf, increase stability and remove a point of tension between Washington and its partners in the region.

Worth noting: Crude oil futures dipped Monday morning in Asian trade on the news of the truce, which could lower the risk to Saudi supply.

Yemen truce met with hope and caution

Yemenis are reacting to the first ceasefire in six years with hope and caution.

Forces loyal to Yemen's Houthi rebels march in a military parade in Saana. 

Yemen

ABU DHABI, UAE — Weeks of intense diplomatic efforts led by the UN and U.S. have yielded a truce in Yemen.Why it matters: The immediate result of the truce has been the easing of a fuel crisis and greater freedom of movement, which will likely bring relief to Yemenis struggling with one of the world’s worst <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="humanitarian crises" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/27275438.18001/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2h1bWFuaXRhcmlhbi1jcmlzaXMtYWZnaGFuaXN0YW4teWVtZW4tZXRoaW9waWEtdWtyYWluZS1kMzE0Y2RjMC00YzRkLTQzODEtOGQzZC01MmNlMTdmNmYwYWIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc3RlbGF2aXYmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B619fabf3" data-vars-content-id="eb8016ed-e920-4d60-9de6-a656ab42d764" data-vars-headline="Yemen truce met with hope and caution" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/27275438.18001/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tL2h1bWFuaXRhcmlhbi1jcmlzaXMtYWZnaGFuaXN0YW4teWVtZW4tZXRoaW9waWEtdWtyYWluZS1kMzE0Y2RjMC00YzRkLTQzODEtOGQzZC01MmNlMTdmNmYwYWIuaHRtbD91dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc3RlbGF2aXYmc3RyZWFtPXdvcmxk/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9B619fabf3" target="_blank">humanitarian crises</a>.

Mustafa Alrawi

Stories

Fears of violent escalation as Iraq's political deadlock deepens

GCC countries express some optimism ahead of Biden's Saudi visit

Yemen truce met with hope and caution

UAE plots path forward after Houthi attacks

Why Saudi Arabia is outraged at Lebanon