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Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed official talks in Baghdad last week, despite the ongoing political deadlock in Iraq and Riyadh's crackdown on Shiite opposition.

Why it matters: The talks were put on hold last November pending the formation of a new government in Baghdad. Iran last month also postponed a meeting after Saudi Arabia executed dozens of Shiite dissidents. 

Flashback: Saudi Arabia cut off relations with Iran in January 2016 after Iranian protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic facilities in Tehran over Riyadh’s execution of dissident Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

Driving the news: The fifth round of talks between senior Iranian and Saudi security and intelligence officials last Thursday was focused on two key challenges: the normalization of ties and the Saudi-led war in Yemen.

Tehran has pressed for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations and the reopening of embassies. Riyadh wants more practical action first.

State of play: Saudi Arabia agreed to allow Iran to reopen its embassy in Riyadh, but only for activities related to the Jeddah-based Organization for Islamic Cooperation.

The two sides decided to “send a delegation to each country within the next 30 days to discuss the reopening of embassies,” a source familiar with the talks in the region told Amwaj.media.

Saudi Arabia also agreed to reportedly allow 40,000 Iranians to enter the kingdom for the annual hajj pilgrimage in July.

The big picture: The main priority for Saudi Arabia is its war against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. After seven years of fighting, the Houthis are launching attacks as deep as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.

In early April, the UN announced a two-month ceasefire in Yemen in exchange for seaborne fuel deliveries to the besieged port of Hodeida and selected commercial flights to Sana’a.

During last week's talks, Saudi officials expressed disappointment with Iran’s role in Yemen and stressed that Tehran should be more active in facilitating an extension, sources said.

Iran expressed positivity over the truce but stressed that practical steps need to be taken to move toward sustainable peace.

Between the lines: Saudi Arabia has shifted its regional policies over the past year amid the cooling of ties with the U.S. after the Biden administration came to office.

Iran’s conservative government is keen on showing that it prioritizes relations with neighbors regardless of the state of the 2015 nuclear deal, which remains on life support.

What’s next: Iranian and Saudi officials will reconvene in Baghdad “in the coming weeks." Prior to that session, there will be another lower-level meeting between the parties in Oman.

Iranian state media has asserted that given the “constructive dialogue,” it is possible that a meeting between the foreign ministers will be held.

But, but, but: The current “constructive atmosphere” will to a large extent rely on progress over Yemen, including an extension of the truce and moves toward peace talks.

Mohammad Ali Shabani is the editor of Amwaj.media. 

Inside the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia

The current “constructive atmosphere” will to a large extent rely on progress over Yemen.

An Iranian flag. Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

Iran

Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed official talks in Baghdad last week, despite the ongoing political deadlock in Iraq and Riyadh&#x27;s crackdown on Shiite opposition.Why it matters: The talks were <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="put on hold" data-vars-click-url="https://amwaj.media/article/iran-saudi-talks-in-iraq" data-vars-content-id="1fb5a3b7-e305-4fb8-8bcc-1f05157adc1f" data-vars-headline="Inside the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://amwaj.media/article/iran-saudi-talks-in-iraq" target="_blank">put on hold</a> last November pending the formation of a new government in Baghdad. Iran last month also <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="postponed" data-vars-click-url="https://amwaj.media/article/inside-story-iraq-s-pm-hosts-iranian-saudi-delegations-for-fifth-round-of-talks" data-vars-content-id="1fb5a3b7-e305-4fb8-8bcc-1f05157adc1f" data-vars-headline="Inside the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://amwaj.media/article/inside-story-iraq-s-pm-hosts-iranian-saudi-delegations-for-fifth-round-of-talks" target="_blank">postponed</a> a meeting after Saudi Arabia executed dozens of Shiite dissidents.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Officials from Iran and Saudi Arabia met this week in Baghdad for a fourth round of talks this year, following a months-long hiatus after the election of Iran's new president.

Why it matters: The meetings in Iraq constitute the first serious attempt at dialogue between the two regional rivals following years of tensions and rhetorical venom.

Iraqi sources say the agenda is dominated by efforts to repair the bilateral relationship and by regional issues concerning both sides.

Flashback: Saudi Arabia cut off relations with Iran in January 2016. The move came after Iranian protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic facilities over Riyadh’s execution of dissident Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

The relationship deteriorated further following the election of Donald Trump, who openly sided with the Saudi leadership in its long-standing confrontation with Iran.

Given the administration's animosity towards Iran, Riyadh not only felt no need to talk to Tehran, but was arguably even disincentivized to do so.

Between the lines: The Iran-Saudi dialogue coincides with President Biden’s arrival into office and his attempt to pivot attention away from the region.

That has been interpreted by many observers as a sign that Arab partners of the U.S. will be more prone to engage Iran if Washington isn't unconditionally backing the regional status quo.

How it happened: The Iran-Saudi dialogue is an outcome of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s personal efforts to promote a more integrated region and turn his country into a bridge rather than a battleground for competing foreign powers.

Kadhimi hosted a summit in late June with the leaders of Egypt and Jordan, at which the three countries agreed to deepen economic and security ties.

In August, Kadhimi gathered a wider array of leaders from key states such as Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

What’s next: After the event, an Iraqi political source close to Kadhimi revealed to Amwaj.media that the Baghdad Conference was never envisioned as a one-off.

“The participants are mulling the idea of making this an annual gathering — each time in a different capital," the source said.

At a recent follow-up meeting of the Baghdad Conference, held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, all sides —including Iran and Saudi Arabia — agreed that the next session will be held in Jordan.

What to watch: Iraq is set to hold parliamentary elections on Oct. 10, and while Kadhimi is not on the ballot, he is seeking domestic, regional and international backing for a second term.

The outcome could have bearing on the future of the regional dialogue, given Kadhimi's role in promoting it.

Rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran hold talks in Iraq

This is the first round of talks under Iran's new president.

Iraqi PM Kadhimi with Iranian President Raisi. Photo: Presidency of Iran via Getty

Officials from Iran and Saudi Arabia met this week in Baghdad for a fourth round of talks this year, following a months-long hiatus after the election of Iran&#x27;s new president.Why it matters: The meetings in Iraq constitute the first serious attempt at dialogue between the two regional rivals following years of tensions and rhetorical venom.

After eight years of near-constant attacks on President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, Iran's hardliners will control all levers of power after the election of Ebrahim Raisi as Rouhani's successor.

Why it matters: Some observers posit that the alignment between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the new hardline president will pave the way for more stability in Iran and eventually a greater willingness to engage in diplomacy.

Yes, but: The “unitary state theory" has failed previously, and the conservative camp is not entirely united.

Previously, Khamenei and the IRGC could stick their necks out by proxy, such as during nuclear negotiations, and still avoid the blame for any high-risk failures. Raisi’s presidency reduces this option.

And during the presidency of conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), the last time hardliners had complete control, Iran slid into conservative infighting.

Already, the presidential candidacy of IRGC general Saeed Mohammad triggered an unprecedented public split among senior commanders. Ultimately, Mohammad was disqualified and rallied behind Raisi.

The big picture: The conservative advance was aided by the failures of the reformist movement and the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump, including his 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. But it was marred by strikingly low voter turnout.

Just 48.8% of eligible voters cast ballots — down from more than 70% in the last two elections — and that drops to some 42.5% when taking into account invalid ballots.

The runner-up to Raisi's 62% was actually the 12% of voters who cast blank or spoiled ballots, a big spike from previous elections.

Between the lines: The authorities in Iran have long valued high turnout in presidential elections as proof of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.

There was significant pre-election maneuvering to ensure Raisi's election, as part of the effort to position Iran for the day the 82-year-old Khamenei passes away.

Damaging leaks took Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif out of the running, and the Guardian Council later eliminated other reformist candidates en masse, including former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani.

What to watch: While Iran’s reform movement is on life support and in serious need of soul-searching, the conservative takeover would have a silver lining for reformists if the conservatives abstain from suppressing a movement that now seems to pose little threat.

However, a likely economic upturn after the revival of the nuclear deal could give the government enough capital to crack down even harder on political dissent.

Go deeper: U.S. wants nuclear deal done before Iran's new president takes power

Conservative consolidation in Iran won't necessarily bring stability

The conservatives control everything, but they're not fully united.

President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran arrives for his opening press conference. Photo: Sobhan Farajvan/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

After eight years of near-constant attacks on President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, Iran&#x27;s hardliners will control all levers of power after the election of Ebrahim Raisi as Rouhani&#x27;s successor.Why it matters: Some observers posit that the alignment between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the new hardline president will pave the way for more stability in Iran and eventually a greater willingness to engage in diplomacy.

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Mohammad Ali Shabani

Stories

Inside the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran hold talks in Iraq

Conservative consolidation in Iran won't necessarily bring stability