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Several federal efforts to combat human trafficking in the U.S. have slowed under the Trump administration, according to government data and human trafficking advocates. 

Why it matters: There are thousands of trafficking victims in the U.S. — including children trafficked into prostitution as well as agricultural and domestic workers who are paid little or nothing. But the Trump administration has cut back on prosecutions of these crimes and assistance to victims.

By the numbers: Last year, the National Human Trafficking Hotline identified almost 15,000 people who were most likely trafficked. That's more than any year since at least 2012.

But prosecutions are down: The number of defendants charged with human trafficking by federal attorneys fell to 386 last year, from 553 in 2017, according to the State Department's annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report.  

So far this year, federal attorneys have prosecuted 39% of the cases referred to them with child sex trafficking as the lead charge, according to data collected by Syracuse University. That's down from 49% in the last year of the Obama administration.

Investigations are also down: In 2018, the Justice Department opened just 657 trafficking investigations — down from a spike of 1,800 in FY 2016, per the TIP reports. 

Yes, but: Trafficking convictions are still rising — although that could include some cases that began during the Obama administration, said Susan French, a former federal prosector for human trafficking cases. 

And while overall prosecutions are down, DOJ continues to prosecute more cases involving child prostitution.

Between the lines: The number of prosecutions isn't the only factor.

The Trump administration recently made it more difficult for victims of sex trafficking to clear their criminal records.

"The criminal justice system harms victims by saddling them with criminal convictions for crimes they were forced to commit by their traffickers," said Martina Vandenberg, president and founder of the Human Trafficking Legal Center. 

A criminal history "often means you're not going to get the housing or you're not going to get the job or whatever else you are attempting to obtain," French said.

Anti-immigrant sentiment has also compounded the problem, as many victims of human trafficking come from other nations. 

"When you have a tone coming out of the White House which is strongly anti-immigrant... it has a chilling effect on people coming forward," French said.

Federal officials are also denying more "T visas," which are for trafficking victims who cooperate with law enforcement.

The other side: The Department of Homeland Security increased the number of specialists working with human trafficking investigators by 70% last year, according to the TIP report.

Federal aid to state and local law enforcement and victims' organizations plummeted in Trump's first year in office, from nearly $16 million to just less than $3 million. But it rebounded last year to $23.1 million — the highest funding level since at least 2011. 

DOJ "continues to prioritize fighting violent crime, including human trafficking," , and remains "deeply committed to securing restitution for victims and survivors of human trafficking," DOJ spokesman Peter Carr told Axios.

Efforts to combat human trafficking slow under Trump

The number of new federal prosecutions for child sex trafficking has fallen significantly under Trump, according to TRA

A highway sign warning about human trafficking in the U.S.

Photo: Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Politics

Human trafficking

Politics & Policy

Data: Axios research and FiveThirtyEight's Trump Score. See our methodology here. Chart: Naema Ahmed, Sara Wise, Juliet Bartz, Orion Rummler/Axios

Sen. David Perdue, whose upcoming runoff election in Georgia could help determine which party controls the Senate, has been President Trump’s top loyalist in the upper chamber, according to the "Axios on HBO" Trump Loyalty Index.

Why it matters: In the wake of a presidential election largely seen as a referendum on Trump, Perdue’s unbreakable allegiance to the president effectively makes Trump an issue again in the runoff. 

Perdue received a 91 out of 100 on our Trump Loyalty Index — the highest score among the Senate’s 53 Republicans — by voting with the president 95% of the time and defending him through seven controversies that would have crushed most politicians.

Perdue’s score is also the second highest among the 201 Republican members of Congress who have held office throughout Trump’s term, falling two points short of Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wisc.), who topped the list with a 93. 

Between the lines: Even though President-elect Joe Biden leads Trump in Georgia as the state heads to a recount, Perdue has doubled down on his loyalty to the president. 

Earlier this week, Perdue and fellow Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), who's also in a runoff on Jan. 5, called on Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign over a failure to deliver "honest and transparent elections," although the senators did not provide evidence.  

The bottom line: Despite Georgia trending blue in a presidential race for the first time since 1992, Perdue and Loeffler’s fierce loyalty to the president signals that they see tapping into and turning out Trump’s base as their most promising path to retaining their seats.

If they’re right, it would be yet another reflection that this election has not been the complete repudiation of Trump that Democrats hoped for. 

Axios' Trump Loyalty Index: Trumpiest senator back on ballot

Sen. David Perdue has been President Trump’s top loyalist in the upper chamber.

David Perdue

Donald Trump

Sen. David Perdue, whose upcoming runoff election in Georgia could help determine which party controls the Senate, has been President Trump’s top loyalist in the upper chamber, according to the &quot;Axios on HBO&quot; <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Trump Loyalty Index" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/always-trumpers-republicans-axios-on-hbo-f4a866a6-03a8-4632-b92b-47f79607ef01.html" data-vars-content-id="3b2fe1db-142c-4028-bd3d-fe46faa10de2" data-vars-headline="Axios&#x27; Trump Loyalty Index: Trumpiest senator back on ballot" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/always-trumpers-republicans-axios-on-hbo-f4a866a6-03a8-4632-b92b-47f79607ef01.html" target="_self">Trump Loyalty Index</a>.Why it matters: In the wake of a presidential election largely seen as a referendum on Trump, Perdue’s unbreakable allegiance to the president effectively makes Trump an issue again in the runoff.

Axios AM

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

Data: Axios research; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon, Juliet Bartz, Orion Rummler/Axios

Positive tweets about President Trump by elected Republicans in Congress who have held office throughout his term increased 161% between the first 60 days of the Trump administration and the same 60-day period in 2020, according to an analysis for “Axios on HBO.” 

Why it matters: Trump’s chorus of Republican supporters on Capitol Hill has grown even louder and more enthusiastic, even as polls in swing states and key Senate races turned on the GOP. 

This trend is another sign that Trumpiness will remain a signature of the Republican Party long after the president has retired to Mar-a-Lago, whether that's in three months or four years.

The winner: Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, who tweeted nearly 600 positive Trump tweets in 60 days.

The other side: A handful of Republicans in Congress hardly ever tweeted positively about Trump — including Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Rep. Will Hurd (Texas), Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.), and Rep. John Katko (N.Y.). 

Always Trumpers: The president's unbreakable wall

Trump’s biggest Twitter cheerleaders

The big increase in positive tweets about President Trump by Republicans in Congress.

Axios on HBO

Positive tweets about President Trump by elected Republicans in Congress who have held office throughout his term increased 161% between the first 60 days of the Trump administration and the same 60-day period in 2020, according to an analysis for “Axios on HBO.” Why it matters: Trump’s chorus of Republican supporters on Capitol Hill has grown even louder and more enthusiastic, even as polls in swing states and key Senate races turned on the GOP.

We created the Trump Loyalty Index to measure, in empirical terms, how loyal each Republican member of Congress has been to President Trump throughout his time in office. 

How it works: The index measures both voting loyalty, based on FiveThirtyEight data, and how members reacted to seven of Trump’s most controversial moments.

Were primarily related to Trump’s behavior or rhetoric, more so than policy.

Elicited enough on-the-record responses so that an analysis of reactions would be meaningful and nuanced. 

Spanned the course of his term and candidacy.

Based on those criteria, the seven controversies we selected were: 

October 2016: "Access Hollywood" recording

January 2017: The initial travel ban on Muslim-majority nations

August 2017: Charlottesville "very fine people on both sides" comment

January 2018: “Shithole countries” in Africa comment

July 2019: Trump's tweet that certain female Democratic lawmakers should "go back" to where they came from

September 2019: The memo about the call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

June 2020: The Bible photo op and clearing of protesters

We then looked at how each member responded to each of these controversies and classified their reaction as one of the following:

Entirely defended — defended or stood by Trump without equivocation

Mostly defended — equivocated, but primarily defended or stood by Trump

Neutral — did not comment, declined to comment, or equivocated entirely

Mostly criticized — equivocated, but primarily criticized or defected from Trump

Entirely criticized — criticized or defected from Trump without equivocation 

In order to find each response, we checked members’ Twitter accounts, Facebook accounts, press releases, floor speeches, TV interviews, and statements to national and local news outlets. 

To turn our analysis of controversies and FiveThirtyEight’s data into the Loyalty Index, we assigned points and weights to each of our metrics, dividing each member’s total points by the number of possible points he or she could receive. 

For each member, we gave their voting record half the weight of their total points for reactions to controversies.

Note: The weight put on each member’s voting record varies based on how long they’ve been in Congress. It varies because members could only receive points for controversies that happened while they were in office. 

We weighted the reacting to controversies data more heavily since it is primarily and inextricably about Trump, whereas factors other than Trump go into a vote.

Examples of how we weighted voting records for members that were in Congress for different lengths of time: 

Breakdown of Ever Trumpers scoring system for Republican members who have held office for different lengths of time

Note: the large majority of members have been in office for all or six out of seven controversies.

The methodology of the Trump Loyalty Index

How we measured the loyalty each member of Congress has shown to President

President Trump salutes at the White House after returning from Walter Reed hospital

We created the Trump Loyalty Index to measure, in empirical terms, how loyal each Republican member of Congress has been to President Trump throughout his time in office. How it works: The index measures both voting loyalty, based on<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" FiveThirtyEight" data-vars-click-url="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/" data-vars-content-id="ae221db6-36a5-4b6b-b8e8-5e8e888bc3ce" data-vars-headline="The methodology of the Trump Loyalty Index" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/" target="_blank"> FiveThirtyEight</a> data, and how members reacted to seven of Trump’s most controversial moments.

Data: Axios research and FiveThirtyEight's Trump Score. See our methodology here. Note(*): Senator Mitt Romney did not join Congress until January 2019. However, statements he made as a prominent GOP figure prior to his time in office were taken into consideration. Chart: Naema Ahmed, Sara Wise, Juliet Bartz, Orion Rummler/Axios

More than 85% of elected Republicans who have been in Congress throughout President Trump’s term have largely stood by him through seven crises that would have crushed most politicians, according to a comprehensive new study by "Axios on HBO." 

Why it matters: The data shows how Trump’s grip on the Republican Party has tightened — especially in the last two years — as his dissenters have largely piped down, been tossed out, or currently face the threat of losing re-election.

How it works: The Trump Loyalty Index, built over the past year by Juliet Bartz of "Axios on HBO," shows in empirical terms the intense loyalty Trump commands. 

The index measures both voting loyalty, based on FiveThirtyEight data, and whether members said anything critical on the record during seven of Trump’s biggest crises: his "Access Hollywood" recording, the initial travel ban on Muslim-majority nations, his comments on Charlottesville, his “shithole countries” remark, the “go back” tweet, his call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his Bible photo op.  

You can search the “Loyalty Score” of your representative and senators in the above graphic.

By the numbers: In 2016, 42% of the 178 Republicans who have been in office since Trump's candidacy criticized him during the "Access Hollywood" fallout. 

In 2017, 19% criticized him for Charlottesville.

In 2018, 18% criticized him for his “shithole countries” remark.

In 2019, 15% criticized him for the “go back” tweet. 

In 2020, 12% criticized him for the Bible photo op/clearing of peaceful protesters.

In 2016, there were also 49 Republicans in Congress who didn’t support Trump or withdrew their support after "Access Hollywood." Now, 25 of them are no longer in Congress or, in Rep. Justin Amash’s case, became an Independent. 

Of those left, only a handful have remained consistent critics. 

Meanwhile, no GOP member who publicly supported Trump in 2016 ever evolved into a critic. 

And no current Republican who has taken office since Trump’s inauguration criticizes him except for Sen. Mitt Romney and, at times, Rep. Liz Cheney.

Those who haven’t shown their loyalty to Trump over the past four years are more likely to be in competitive re-elections. 

Overall, 24% of Republicans up for re-election are facing competitive races, based on The Cook Political Report’s most recent House and Senate election ratings. 

That number jumps to 38% for the index’s 50 least loyal Republicans up for re-election. 

And it drops down to 16% for the index’s 50 most loyal Republicans up for re-election.

The loyalists: The five most subservient Always Trumpers, among the 201 House and Senate Republicans who have been in office throughout Trump's term, are:

The critics: Alone among the Republicans, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine — now endangered in her quest for a fifth term — has criticized Trump for all seven crises. Others who have most often been at odds with Trump are:

The silent approvers: Often, lawmakers show their loyalty with their silence:

The bottom line: Critics and dissenters don’t fare well because that’s not what their Republican constituents want. They want Trump and what he represents — suggesting that his style of politics, and the generation of Republicans he tamed and trained, could outlast his presidency and further transform what once was the party of the sunny Ronald Reagan.

Rashaan Ayesh and Ursula Perano contributed to this story.

Editor's note: The graphic has been updated to note that Romney commented on Trump's "shithole countries" remark, and his score has been adjusted.

Always Trumpers: The president’s unbreakable wall

A comprehensive study by "Axios on HBO" shows how Trump has tightened his grip on the Republican Party.

More than 85% of elected Republicans who have been in Congress throughout President Trump’s term have largely stood by him through seven crises that would have crushed most politicians, according to a comprehensive new study by &quot;Axios on HBO.&quot; Why it matters: The data shows how Trump’s grip on the Republican Party has tightened — especially in the last two years — as his dissenters have largely piped down, been tossed out, or currently face the threat of losing re-election.

Juliet Bartz

Stories

Axios' Trump Loyalty Index: Trumpiest senator back on ballot

Trump’s biggest Twitter cheerleaders

Always Trumpers: The president’s unbreakable wall

The methodology of the Trump Loyalty Index

Efforts to combat human trafficking slow under Trump