National

In just a few days, some 4 million people in India could find themselves without a country. 

Why it matters: This could quickly become the largest crisis of stateless people on the planet.

The big picture: This is happening in Assam, a hilly, landlocked state at the eastern edge of India along the Bangladeshi border. (The famous "Assam" tea comes from there.)

Back in the early 1970s, during Bangladesh's war of independence from Pakistan, millions of Bengali Muslims fled across the border into Assam, dramatically shifting the province's demographics and leading to tensions with Assam's Hindu majority. 

Nearly half a century later, Assam has the largest Muslim minority of any Indian state except Kashmir.

In the mid-1980s, India's government determined that any refugee who crossed the border into Assam after Bangladesh gained independence in 1971 should be a citizen of Bangladesh, not of India. 

Since then, successive Indian governments have tried to determine which Assam residents have paperwork that proves they lived in India before that date.

But for many people, finding the right documents — and reading them, in a state where a quarter of the population is illiterate — is challenging, if not impossible.

Last year, the Assam state government finally published a draft National Registry of Citizens (NRC) that lists everyone who is a legal resident in Assam. 

4 million people, mostly Muslims who have been living in India for decades, were not on the list. Those people have until Aug. 31 to prove a pre-1971 claim to residence or they will be deemed illegal.

What to watch: The Indian government, like all governments, has the right and responsibility to know who is living on its territory and under what circumstances. But there are 2 big complications in the case of Assam.

First, what happens to these 4 million human beings if India officially marks them as illegal? 

Bangladesh has said it will not accept the deportation of millions of people who have been living in India for almost 50 years. 

Many of these 4 million people were born inside India after 1971. Should those people be "returned" to a country they've never known? 

Assam authorities are reportedly building detention camps that could constitute a horrific human rights violation.

Second, the Assam crackdown looks like the prelude to a broader bid by the national government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to discriminate against India's Muslims.

This spring, the BJP announced that it wants to extend the citizenship registry to the whole country in a bid to remove anyone who isn't a "Buddhist, Hindu, or Sikh."

Interior Minister Amit Shah, who headed the BJP in the run-up to its sweeping election victory last year, has called Bengali Muslims "termites" and pledged to throw them into the sea.

The bottom line: The BJP is flush with power after the last election — but seeking to marginalize India's 177 million Muslims from what it means to be "Indian" risks destabilizing a precarious balance among faiths and ethnicities in the world's largest democracy.

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India is poised to declare millions of residents stateless

Four million in Assam were left off a citizenship registry

Checking documents this month in Assam. Photo: Anuwar Ali Hazarika/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

World

India

In just a few days, some 4 million people in India could find themselves without a country. Why it matters: This could quickly become the largest crisis of stateless people on the planet.

Patriarch Bartholomew I, the Istanbul-based leader of more than 300 million Eastern Orthodox believers, last week moved to grant the Ukrainian church independence from Russia for the first time in 300 years. That led to the biggest split in the church in centuries. 

Why it matters: This is a spiritual matter with distinctly worldly implications — after all, just four years ago Russia annexed Crimea and backed an insurgency that continues to grind on in Ukraine’s east. Many Ukrainians view the independence of the Ukrainian church through the lens of their country’s ongoing struggle against Russian influence.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has seized on the issue as a way to boost his dismal approval ratings ahead of next year’s presidential election. Over the weekend, he hailed the decision not only as a prayer answered, but as an issue of national security and as a critical component of the European future he imagines for his country.

Meanwhile the Kremlin, and the closely aligned Russian Orthodox Church, are furious.

For one thing, independence for the Ukrainian church could cost the Russian church about a third of its parishes there. 

But more broadly, Moscow sees itself not only as a defender of Orthodox believers everywhere, it views the lands of Ukraine with special zeal as the cradle of the Russian Orthodox faith. In fact, that’s one of the reasons Putin ordered the Russian invasion in 2014.

The issue is so critical for Russia, in fact, that Putin summoned a security council meeting about it over the weekend. And Russia’s Orthodox leaders have now explicitly rejected Patriarch Bartholomew’s decision, in a move that could spell Christianity’s biggest schism in 1,000 years.

What to watch: Ominously, the Russian government has also claimed the right to intervene in Ukraine to protect the interests of the Orthodox church there, in terms surely meant as a warning to Ukrainians both in office and in church. Keep a close eye on this in the coming weeks, as tensions could flare sharply on the ground.

Political stakes high in Russia-Ukraine church split

The biggest schism in centuries isn't just about religion

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko meets with Patriarchate of Constantinople leaders. Photo: Mykhailo Markiv/TASS via Getty Images

Russia

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Patriarch Bartholomew I, the Istanbul-based leader of more than 300 million Eastern Orthodox believers, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="last week moved" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=a53d39e169&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="635be161-5424-4817-b89f-3c25ad0ef77a" data-vars-headline="Political stakes high in Russia-Ukraine church split" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=a53d39e169&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">last week moved</a> to grant the Ukrainian church independence from Russia for the first time in 300 years. That led to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="biggest split in the church" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/russian-orthodox-church-splits-constantinople-ukraine-66cff6e9-1ef7-4edd-8b06-875d892f4802.html" data-vars-content-id="635be161-5424-4817-b89f-3c25ad0ef77a" data-vars-headline="Political stakes high in Russia-Ukraine church split" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/russian-orthodox-church-splits-constantinople-ukraine-66cff6e9-1ef7-4edd-8b06-875d892f4802.html" target="_self">biggest split in the church</a> in centuries. Why it matters: This is a spiritual matter with distinctly worldly implications — after all, just four years ago Russia annexed Crimea and backed an insurgency that continues to grind on in Ukraine’s east. Many Ukrainians view the independence of the Ukrainian church through the lens of their country’s ongoing struggle against Russian influence.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Two of U.S. President Donald Trump's least favorite things in the wider world these days are the United Nations, which he sees as an expensive nuisance, and China, which he views as a major rival. But in neglecting one, he might be helping the other.

The backdrop: The Trump administration said it will cut back on U.S. funding for the U.N., in part because Trump — like many conservatives in Washington — sees it as an inefficient, and in some ways illegitimate, encroachment on America's ability to do what it wants in the world. 

The Chinese leadership views the U.N. as an important vehicle for expanding its global economic and strategic role, particularly in the developing countries that depend most on the U.N.'s services.

That's why Beijing is now the second largest contributor to the U.N. budget, accounting for 12% of the organization's funding, up from just 1% 20 years ago. 

China is also the number 2 financial supporter of peacekeeping operations, and when it comes to sending actual personnel, Beijing's 2,500 peacekeepers are more than the other 4 permanent members of the Security Council combined (that's the U.S., France, the U.K., and Russia.) 

For perspective, in 1990, China offered up just 5 troops.

China has also succeeded in getting its officials elected or appointed to a number of important U.N. positions overseeing global economic, technology, and climate issues.

It has also been working hard to bolster U.N. support for its trillion dollar Belt and Road initiative, which is financing infrastructure that expands China's commercial ties across the developing world.

It's not as though the U.S., which is still the largest single contributor to U.N. budgets, isn't aware of this. 

U.S. officials have been trying to push back against Chinese moves at the U.N. 

But they've confined themselves mainly to opposing specific Chinese appointments (with limited success) or scrubbing Chinese-coined terms from U.N. documents. In other words, it's a tactical pushback against China's strategic bet on the U.N.

Whether the expansion of China's role within the U.N. is a good thing or a bad thing depends on your point of view. 

If, like the current U.S. administration, you see China as a "strategic competitor," then ceding so much influence at the U.N., whatever the organization's shortcomings, might not be smart. After all, debates about "America First vs. Globalism" are not all that interesting to developing countries where China is keeping the peace and building things.

On the other hand, if you think that a country that is poised, as Xi Jinping says, to "take center stage in the world" ought to take a bigger stake and more responsibilities in a cornerstone international institution, then China's larger role at the U.N. looks like an important step in its maturation as a global power.

China builds influence at U.N. as U.S. cuts back

Beijing's contributions have risen rapidly as the U.S. cuts back

United Nations (UN)

Two of U.S. President Donald Trump&#x27;s least favorite things in the wider world these days are the United Nations, which he sees as an expensive nuisance, and China, which he views as a major rival. But in neglecting one, he might be helping the other.The backdrop: The Trump administration said it will cut back on U.S. funding for the U.N., in part because Trump — like many conservatives in Washington — sees it as an inefficient, and in some ways illegitimate, encroachment on America&#x27;s ability to do what it wants in the world.

In recent weeks, thousands of young people across Sudan have taken to the streets in protest against strongman Omar al-Bashir, the leader of one of the world’s most repressive governments. 

Why it matters: While the protests were initially sparked by economic issues — inflation in Sudan is currently running around 70% — a brutal crackdown has helped stoke broader popular demands for Bashir’s resignation. 

Bashir, a former paratrooper, is a wily and brutal survivor. He first took power 29 years ago in a coup backed by Islamic fundamentalists, and he immediately dialed up the Arab-dominated government’s long-running war against black and predominantly Christian separatists in the country’s oil rich south. 

By the time that war fully ended with the south’s internationally brokered secession in 2011, more than 2 million people had been killed. 

Even as that war was winding down, Bashir crushed a rebellion in the western Sudanese region of Darfur with such brutality that he became the first sitting head of state to be indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and genocide.

Tight U.S. sanctions imposed in 1997 over human rights abuses and support for terrorism (Osama bin Laden briefly called Sudan home) helped him burnish his image as a populist defender of his people against a neo-colonial West. 

Flashback: In 2013, he crushed a street movement in the capital that was inspired by the Arab Spring. 

This time around, however, protests appear more sustained and widespread, even if they lack coherent leadership and structure. And stripped of the cash that South Sudan’s oil fields once pumped into Khartoum, Bashir has much less room to prop up a badly mismanaged economy, even with the help of Gulf Arab allies. 

In addition, the removal of long-standing U.S. sanctions in 2017 exposed the deeper rot of Sudan’s economy while stripping the wily populist of one of his go-to excuses for economic hardship. 

The bottom line: The future of this turbulent African country may be about to take another historic turn. 

Sudan protests shake strongman Omar al-Bashir

Sudanese protesters at an anti-government demonstration in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 6. Photo: AFP/Getty

Sudan

In recent weeks, thousands of young people across Sudan have taken to the streets in protest against strongman Omar al-Bashir, the leader of one of the world’s most repressive governments. Why it matters: While the protests were initially sparked by economic issues — inflation in Sudan is currently running around 70% — a brutal crackdown has helped stoke broader popular demands for Bashir’s resignation.

After many years in the shadows, the far-right has now arrived as a force in Spanish politics. Local elections in Andalusia on Sunday gave the fiercely nationalistic and socially conservative Vox party 12 of the provincial assembly’s 105 seats.

Why it matters: That makes Vox the first Spanish far-right party to win office since the country’s dictatorship ended in the 1970s. Vox wants to slash taxes, quash Catalan autonomy, criminalize illegal immigration, build a wall on the Moroccan border, restrict the religious activities of Muslims, and radically centralize political control in Spain. Ironically: the party also wants to eliminate precisely the assembly in which it just won seats.

For decades, the brutal legacy of Francisco Franco’s right-wing dictatorship put a stigma on far-right politics. Meanwhile, the center-right Partido Popular (PP) served for many years as a big tent party for the Spanish right, leaving little room for fringier right-wing upstarts.

But now, as the number of people with a living memory of Franco dwindles, the stigma is lifting. What’s more, the PP is splintering. 

Vox itself was founded in 2013 by disgruntled members of the PP’s right wing. And earlier this year the PP lost national power amid a corruption scandal. 

Still, what has helped Vox most of all is the surging number of Middle Eastern and African migrants arriving on Spanish shores.

Overall, migrant arrivals in the EU have fallen dramatically since peaking in 2014-2015, but the numbers in Spain have risen more than 500% since then. 

That’s partly because the populist government of Italy, once a favored destination for migrants, has closed its own ports to them. Andalusia, as Spain’s southernmost region, has borne the brunt of that wave, making it fertile ground for Vox.

What to watch: The party is still a relatively small organization, limited to one part of the country where its anti-immigrant message is especially resonant. But as municipal and regional elections approach in 2019, Vox is looking to make broader gains with its “Spain first” message. As the party’s own website promises: “Soon we will be in your province.”

Far-right claims first victories in Spain since Franco era

A protest, supported by Vox, against Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Photo: Marcos del Mazo/LightRocket via Getty Images

Spain

After many years in the shadows, the far-right has now arrived as a force in Spanish politics. Local elections in Andalusia on Sunday gave the fiercely nationalistic and socially conservative Vox party 12 of the provincial assembly’s 105 seats.Why it matters: That makes Vox the first Spanish far-right party to win office since the country’s dictatorship ended in the 1970s. Vox <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="wants to" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=77d8959e84&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="e53f9d0e-2232-4f7b-9a9d-6933c1429f89" data-vars-headline="Far-right claims first victories in Spain since Franco era" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=77d8959e84&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">wants to</a> slash taxes, quash Catalan autonomy, criminalize illegal immigration, build a wall on the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Moroccan border" data-vars-click-url="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=7dd7d3a625&amp;e=51aaed0a65" data-vars-content-id="e53f9d0e-2232-4f7b-9a9d-6933c1429f89" data-vars-headline="Far-right claims first victories in Spain since Franco era" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://eurasiagroup.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7404e6dcdc8018f49c82e941d&amp;id=7dd7d3a625&amp;e=51aaed0a65" target="_blank">Moroccan border</a>, restrict the religious activities of Muslims, and radically centralize political control in Spain. Ironically: the party also wants to eliminate precisely the assembly in which it just won seats.

Alex Kliment of GZERO Media

Stories

China builds influence at U.N. as U.S. cuts back

India is poised to declare millions of residents stateless

Sudan protests shake strongman Omar al-Bashir

Far-right claims first victories in Spain since Franco era

Political stakes high in Russia-Ukraine church split