Data: Atlanta Fed, N.Y. Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The New York and Atlanta Fed's GDP forecasts for the second quarter have diverged wildly since late May.

The state of play: The spread has come largely since late May as the Atlanta Fed's indicator pushed expectations for the quarter to below -40% after bad retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing data. The N.Y. Fed's metric remained elevated. Similarly, late May readings of personal income and outlays and a series of advanced economic indicators sent the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast below -50%, while the N.Y. Fed's forecast fell only as low as -35.5%.

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Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Oct 19, 2020 - Economy & Business

Report shows manufacturing tea kettle

Data: FRED; Chart: Axios Visuals

Manufacturing PMIs have surged over the past few months, showing a clear breakout V-shaped recovery that has put the indexes of sentiment at the highest levels since 2018, but the hard numbers continue to lag.

Driving the news: The Fed's index of industrial production, which tracks output at factories, mines and utilities, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month after consistent increases since May, and output remains 7.1% below where it was in February.

Supreme Court rejects request to extend Wisconsin absentee ballot deadline

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The Supreme Court rejected in a 5-3 decision Monday Wisconsin Democrats' request to reinstate an extension of the deadline for counting absentee ballots to six days after Election Day, as long as they're postmarked by Nov. 3.

Why it matters: All ballots must now be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day in Wisconsin, a critical swing state in the presidential election.

Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court

Judge Amy Coney Barrett before a meeting on Capitol Hill on Oct. 21. Photo: Sarah Silbiger/pool/AFP via Getty Images

The Senate voted 52-48 on Monday to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. She is expected to be sworn in within hours.

Why it matters: President Trump and Senate Republicans have succeeded in confirming a third conservative justice in just four years, tilting the balance of the Supreme Court firmly to the right for perhaps a generation.

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